stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 By all means would not call off the Christmas rain storm just yet 6z GFS now made a major change at H5 it actually has a trough now if this type of change was to continue 12z we might see a storm show up. we shall see what all the 12z model runs do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hello everyone. Did anyone else notice that BOTH the GFS and NAM at 6z are now showing snow soundings for the Friday morning storm for the higher elevations of northwest NJ. For goodness sake, the NAM is now showing virtually the entire storm to be snow for the higher elevations of northwest NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6z GFS now amplifies the Christmas storm more too and soundings appear supportive of snow even into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB's latest take on the 6z GFS Usual error would mean more southern feature and stronger storm further north/west. Still in that camp.. until at least tomorrow I have no changes on Christmas snow chances with 3rd system. In fact 06z GFS now has it. Tough forecast with separate streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My take: I feel for any met and TV mets as this will be a tough forecast despite the 00z models we have seen time and time again over the last few years models lose a snow or rain storm for it only be brought right back within a day. I am giving this rain storm till tonight if models start to slowly come back I am all aboard for rain storm any snow is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That storm is a winter like H5 trough and a spring like toaster airmass across the entire u.s. Probably due to the insanely below normal snowcover in the united states. It looks like 80% of Minnesota has bare ground...virtually unheard of historically for 20 December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 06Z GFS was one of the better solutions for our area in terms of the Christmas storm. It kept the storm weak enough, so that it didn't amplify and give us flooding rains, but it was north enough to the point where it does look like some flurries/snow showers would probably fall throughout the area on Christmas Day. The relative Humidity fields at 850 mb and 700 mb are juicy enough to where the precipitation falling as snow on Christmas would probably reach the ground in the area. The 10m temps are not a total torch, but they are warmer than 0 C at 10m, so if snow were to fall, being as light as it is being shown on the 06Z GFS, it would probably not accumulate to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 0z Euro ensemble mean has a low weak low on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB's latest take on the 6z GFS Usual error would mean more southern feature and stronger storm further north/west. Still in that camp.. until at least tomorrow I have no changes on Christmas snow chances with 3rd system. In fact 06z GFS now has it. Tough forecast with separate streams Translation: no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 More from the Euro ensembles 216 Clearly the Euro and the GFS is struggling in this pattern. It should be interesting to see who comes out on top with these threats coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6z gfs would be light drizzle/rain for us. Surface is warm. And if it amplified anymore, the surface would be even warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Weird, the euro loses the storm but the ensembles have it. The gfs shows a storm again and its indv. members say what storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6z NAM snowfall output map http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For the Christmas storm, the control run of the Euro looks much more like the GFS with the .01-.10 precip line for all of us and the .10-.25 line as far north as a Trenton to Asbury Park to the southern shore of Long Island line. 850's are below freezing throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The control run of the Euro looks much more like the GFS with the .01-.10 precip line for all of us and the .10-.25 line as far north as a Trenton to Asbury Park to the southern shore of Long Island line. 850's are below freezing throughout the area. Despite what the euro is doing im going with it. The gfs is inconsistent for some odd reason and the euro is much better performance/accuracy wise and thats hard to argue with. As far as after this storm our last hope for us for a while is gonna be febraury because i dont see this pattern getting any better in the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6z NAM snowfall output map http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_72HR.gif Can we lock that in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can we lock that in? That looks like 07-08. That makes me more annoyed than if there were no storms at all and 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can we lock that in? Weenie maps should be in the banter thread, they are a joke. Your area could do ok but I would still favor north of the mass pike. By the time you are cold enough to snow you may not be able to make snow flakes, similar to two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That looks like 07-08. That makes me more annoyed than if there were no storms at all and 60 degrees. :/ Yeah I could see why you wouldn't like that. I'm in the light green though. If it makes you feel any better I did pretty crappy relative to the rest of SNE in '07-'08..only had 35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Weenie maps should be in the banter thread, they are a joke. Your area could do ok but I would still favor north of the mass pike. By the time you are cold enough to snow you may not be able to make snow flakes, similar to two weeks ago. Yeah I am with you here Trials. I definitely think the NAM is running too cold here. The GFS clown map is much more realistic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Did you look at the sounding in areas like Andover k12n and Sussex kfwn yet? They show snow, especially in the higher elevations. This is nothing like the event a couple of weeks ago at all. That map is legit. Bottom line here is that there is a cold high to our northwest and the low stays to our southeast. It is just a matter of how cold it gets at the surface. Weenie maps should be in the banter thread, they are a joke. Your area could do ok but I would still favor north of the mass pike. By the time you are cold enough to snow you may not be able to make snow flakes, similar to two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That looks like 07-08. That makes me more annoyed than if there were no storms at all and 60 degrees. Exactly. Who wants a winter where Boston gets 3X more snow than us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Did you look at the sounding in areas like Andover k12n and Sussex kfwn yet? They show snow, especially in the higher elevations. This is nothing like the event a couple of weeks ago at all. That map is legit. got news for you bubala, those maps are never legit. I didn't say it was like that event in terms of accumulations, i was referencing the race between the cold air and the exit of the moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Bottom line here is that there is a cold high to our northwest and the low stays to our southeast. It is just a matter of how cold it gets at the surface. got news for you bubala, those maps are never legit. I didn't say it was like that event in terms of accumulations, i was referencing the race between the cold air and the exit of the moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 got news for you bubala, those maps are never legit. I didn't say it was like that event in terms of accumulations, i was referencing the race between the cold air and the exit of the moisture Eh, that is not true really. They are occasionally correct or even under done in big time events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Exactly. Who wants a winter where Boston gets 3X more snow than us? I'd rather have 01-02 than see Boston get slammed while we get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Here is how it IS big time different this time. We are not waiting for the cold 850's to get here. They are already here at the start of the storm and throughout the storm. It is just a matter of surface temps. It will be snowing from the clouds, it just may end up being a significant elevation storm for NW NJ. Bottom line here is that there is a cold high to our northwest and the low stays to our southeast. It is just a matter of how cold it gets at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Bottom line here is that there is a cold high to our northwest and the low stays to our southeast. It is just a matter of how cold it gets at the surface. you still have a robust SE ridge and some places have warm wedges below 850. If you see the SNE people hedging, dont get too pumped. Also the NAM is still beyond its really useful range and has been known to run too cold for SE flow events just like the gfs runs warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Eh, that is not true really. They are occasionally correct or even under done in big time events. a broken clock is right twice a day I have never seen them underestimate snow. Anyway, this kind of talk (accuracy of the clown maps) belongs in the banter thread, my bad for keeping it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The soundings that I have are excellent and do not snow any warm wedges, just an issue of surface temps. These are snow soundings in the higher elevations of NW NJ. Everything else you say I agree with. you still have a robust SE ridge and some places have warm wedges below 850. If you see the SNE people hedging, dont get too pumped. Also the NAM is still beyond its really useful range and has been known to run too cold for SE flow events just like the gfs runs warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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