IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z CMC has the "third storm" OTS. Cold enough for snow but no QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z CMC has the "third storm" OTS. Cold enough for snow but no QPF Except that is the 00Z CMC and not the 12z. The 12z looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Except that is the 00Z CMC and not the 12z. The 12z looks like the euro. And its not cold enough for snow anyway. 540 line is in Hunter Mountain. That map is a cold rain for NYC and all of NJ (outside of the extreme NWNJ hills). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 And its not cold enough for snow anyway. 540 line is in Hunter Mountain. That map is a cold rain for NYC and all of NJ. two days ago he told us the nogaps had a blizzard for dc with 850 temps of +6, 540 line over montreal and surface temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 850 temps are below freezing, even so, I clicked on the 12z CMC link, no idea why I got 00z graphics, must have made an error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 two days ago he told us the nogaps had a blizzard for dc with 850 temps of +6, 540 line over montreal and surface temps in the 50s. Was looking at my phone, mistakened the 850 line for something else, cut me some slack okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 two days ago he told us the nogaps had a blizzard for dc with 850 temps of +6, 540 line over montreal and surface temps in the 50s. I nearly died when I saw that post. He had me going though for a few seconds til I checked the 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 850 temps are below freezing, even so, I clicked on the 12z CMC link, no idea why I got 00z graphics, must have made an error Doesnt mean anything. Look at hour 66 of the 18z NAM. 850 line is cold enough. Unfortunately, thicknesses are warm and surface is in the mid 40's. That CMC map is no doubt warm at the surface. Well into the 40's. Is this snow then too? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I nearly died when I saw that post. He had me going though for a few seconds til I checked the 850 temps. That and metfan posting the dgex and analyzing it 30 minutes after it had been beaten to death yesterday is about the only thing funny right now given how bad things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Doesnt mean anything. Look at hour 66 of the 18z NAM. 850 line is cold enough. Unfortunately, thicknesses are warm and surface is in the mid 40's. That CMC map is no doubt warm at the surface. Well into the 40's. Is this snow then too? No. On 11/29/95 in a similar setup it WAS snow, problem is the 1000-850mb layer is a steam bath this time vs that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Doesnt mean anything. Look at hour 66 of the 18z NAM. 850 line is cold enough. Unfortunately, thicknesses are warm and surface is in the mid 40's. That CMC map is no doubt warm at the surface. Well into the 40's. Is this snow then too? No. WIth decent VV's this has the potential to be a very quick isothermal snow in the suburbs of nyc, 18z has cooled substantially, and temps actually crash during the height of the event. I would think this scenario would give accumulating snows to interior nnj se ny and sw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 WIth decent VV's this has the potential to be a very quick isothermal snow in the suburbs of nyc, 18z has cooled substantially, and temps actually crash during the height of the event. I would think this scenario would give accumulating snows to interior nnj se ny and sw ct. I dunno man, its piss warm at the surface, its gonna take a lot more than some decent vv's with that crappy air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, you know things suck when you check the analogs and not a single SECS comes up. By the way just incase anybody didn't know, here is the link to the new CIPS Analog site http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php Depending on what you look at, you can find some probs for snowfall. For example this prob of 2" or greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 WIth decent VV's this has the potential to be a very quick isothermal snow in the suburbs of nyc, 18z has cooled substantially, and temps actually crash during the height of the event. I would think this scenario would give accumulating snows to interior nnj se ny and sw ct. Doubt it. Surface temps are torched. Hour 63, has surface temps in the 50's for almost all of CT, NYC, al of SNE and even into ORH land: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18Z GFS is now amplifying the xmas wave in a totally different way than the euro, but it has a storm again. Cold air is pathetic, so if it did come up the coast, doubt it amounts to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 pretty clear what the gfs is doing, its taking the northern stream energy and just racing it along the canadian border which leaves the southern stream on its own and thus the flat look. The euro digs the northern stream, as does the cmc, and you get the phased rainer. Both scenarios pretty much suck for us unless this takes on a different look. The airmass is craptastic. Hard to go against the euro but it, like the cmc, has been known to over phase things at times. EDIT: The gfs solution sucks less because it is dry, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 pretty clear what the gfs is doing, its taking the northern stream energy and just racing it along the canadian border which leaves the southern stream on its own and thus the flat look. The euro digs the northern stream, as does the cmc, and you get the phased rainer. Both scenarios pretty much suck for us unless this takes on a different look. The airmass is craptastic. Hard to go against the euro but it, like the cmc, has been known to over phase things at times. EDIT: The gfs solution sucks less because it is dry, lol Nothing is set in stone, especially 4 -5 days out. Watch the next model run flip flop again to another solution. Expect more erratic runs to continue that's for sure. Then perhaps revert back to their original outlook which happens more often then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 00z NAM actually cooled the BL down much more than 18z, although 850s are warmer... I don't think this event can be written off quite yet. 00z hr 63 18z hr 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There will be a nice north-south temperature gradient across New Jersey Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z NAM looks to give far NW areas 3-5".. We all know thats not gonna happen. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro looks like the real outlier here for the post-christma storm. The GEFS has nothing like the euro at all, not even a single member.... The flow is simply too fast and there really isnt any room for amplification, rather, the vort gets turned into a stringy mess over the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z ggem now lost the Christmas storm. It looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro lost the storm. Saw this coming from a mile away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro lost the storm. Saw this coming from a mile away I personally would rather have a sunny Christmas than a rainy Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I personally would rather have a sunny Christmas than a rainy Christmas. strongly agree. There is nothing to slow down and amplify the pattern so its just a flat trough and suppresses whatever energy there was..the ridge out west also backed off from previous model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lol the Euro is phasing some northern stream energy into an absolutely awful antecedent airmass at 174 hrs. Lets see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That storm is a winter like H5 trough and a spring like toaster airmass across the entire u.s. Probably due to the insanely below normal snowcover in the united states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lol the Euro is phasing some northern stream energy into an absolutely awful antecedent airmass at 174 hrs. Lets see where this goes. A coastal that brings a solid rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Does the Euro at least weaken the +AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 A coastal that brings a solid rainstorm. Yeah, very exciting. And then it develops some cold sector precipitation at 198 hours with 850's and 1000-500mb thicknesses supportive for snow. It's too bad temperatures are in the mid 40's. Pleasant pattern. If this is the way it's going to play out, torch me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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