nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 something tells me I am going to be adding a lot of people to the golf chat. I play mini golf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 something tells me I am going to be adding a lot of people to the golf chat. lol everyone from NYC Metro is going to be out golfing during the coldest climatological time of the year next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I play mini golf talk to metfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol everyone from NYC Metro is going to be out golfing during the coldest climatological time of the year next month. I'll be on the beach, the polar bear club this year might make it a whole day in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The ECMWF setup to me looks alot like 1/8/99 but with a significantly less cold air supply prior to the event. Most areas saw a 4-6 inch blast before it went over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The ECMWF setup to me looks alot like 1/8/99 but with a significantly less cold air supply prior to the event. Most areas saw a 4-6 inch blast before it went over. I'd rather it at least be warm in a horrendous setup like this, rather than it be frigid after warm, torch rain events. Looks like the AK vortex will scour most of the cold air out from North America, so at least we won't have to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The ECMWF setup to me looks alot like 1/8/99 but with a significantly less cold air supply prior to the event. Most areas saw a 4-6 inch blast before it went over. ridge position actually looks better this time around but yeah it was much colder prior to that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Question, to me it looks possible that the storm could intensify even more than what is currently being modeled by the Euro. If you look at the way that energy dives down from Canada and down into the Gulf, it would seem there is a possibility that this storm could be even more intense. The question is, if it is more intense, would this pull down more cold air into our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Question, to me it looks possible that the storm could intensify even more than what is currently being modeled by the Euro. If you look at the way that energy dives down from Canada and down into the Gulf, it would seem there is a possibility that this storm could be even more intense. The question is, if it is more intense, would this pull down more cold air into our area? NO. You would probably have a bigger phase and it will run closer to the coast or more like up the Hudson Valley, ala the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thanks for the info. If you ever start honking for one, I will probably fall off my seat. Thanks again. NO. You would probably have a bigger phase and it will run closer to the coast or more like up the Hudson Valley, ala the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thanks for the info. If you ever start honking for one, I will probably fall off my seat. Thanks again. I was honking for the mythical third wave that appears not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Just as an added kick to the teeth, the end of the Euro run shows a nice storm taking a 40/70 track, but absolutely no cold air to work with due to the assault of Pacific air across the whole continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Just as an added kick to the teeth, the end of the Euro run shows a nice storm taking a 40/70 track, but absolutely no cold air to work with due to the assault of Pacific air across the whole continent. NYC should finish #1 for annual precipitation at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Just as an added kick to the teeth, the end of the Euro run shows a nice storm taking a 40/70 track, but absolutely no cold air to work with due to the assault of Pacific air across the whole continent. Me and DT were going back and forth last December in the main forum regarding the statistical likelihood NYC sees snow from a benchmark track between the dates of 12/15-3/15. I said 90-95% of the time, he was arguing about 70%. Either way, its never a good sign of the pattern when that occurs in that 90 day period. In 1997-98 it happened almost weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Me and DT were going back and forth last December in the main forum regarding the statistical likelihood NYC sees snow from a benchmark track between the dates of 12/15-3/15. I said 90-95% of the time, he was arguing about 70%. Either way, its never a good sign of the pattern when that occurs in that 90 day period. In 1997-98 it happened almost weekly. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yes, it is amazing. Storms in the right spot but NO cold air to work with. Me and DT were going back and forth last December in the main forum regarding the statistical likelihood NYC sees snow from a benchmark track between the dates of 12/15-3/15. I said 90-95% of the time, he was arguing about 70%. Either way, its never a good sign of the pattern when that occurs in that 90 day period. In 1997-98 it happened almost weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On E-Wall it looks like areas could change back to snow on the back side, 850 temps crash (12z ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Only flurries on the back end. On E-Wall it looks like areas could change back to snow on the back side, 850 temps crash (12z ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On E-Wall it looks like areas could change back to snow on the back side, 850 temps crash (12z ECMWF) We need more negative tilt at 500mb to get a backend snow there, remember there are 2 ways to really get back end snows here. The first is a vertically stacked system like 12/25/02 where you get a deformation zone to form and the system is slow to exit, the 2nd is similar to what the Euro shows above but the surface low needs to take on more of a NNW motion over New England and the 500mb trough has to tilt more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro, even though is a lot of rain, is the ONLY model left that even has any snow for the event. As depicted, the 12z euro has a couple hours of front end snow, away from the immediate coast. Its completely on its own with respect to that, and in this pattern, I fully expect it to warm significantly on the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro, even though is a lot of rain, is the ONLY model left that even has any snow for the event. As depicted, the 12z euro has a couple hours of front end snow, away from the immediate coast. Its completely on its own with respect to that, and in this pattern, I fully expect it to warm significantly on the next couple of runs. I don't have the precip maps but at 120 hours the Euro looks like it COULD be snowing at the coast, 850s are -4C, the 700mb RHs are near 90-100% and it appears the northern end of the precip shield runs from TTN-NYC roughly...BUT, I cannot see the surface temps. There does appear to be a bit of CAD signature from the high though, so if you ask me its snowing from 120-126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the storm looks more like an early season or late season storm more than anything else, where it's more elevation dependent. For temps, it's threading the needle even more than the late October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm beginning to think some people are going to start losing control. We would have to go into the storm with WSW's up across the area like January 2008 and then get shafted for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 surface temps along coastal New Jersey at 120 - 126 hours are unfortunately low to mid 40's. Once you get south of about Rt. 78 the snow hopes fade rather quickly. I don't have the precip maps but at 120 hours the Euro looks like it COULD be snowing at the coast, 850s are -4C, the 700mb RHs are near 90-100% and it appears the northern end of the precip shield runs from TTN-NYC roughly...BUT, I cannot see the surface temps. There does appear to be a bit of CAD signature from the high though, so if you ask me its snowing from 120-126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't have the precip maps but at 120 hours the Euro looks like it COULD be snowing at the coast, 850s are -4C, the 700mb RHs are near 90-100% and it appears the northern end of the precip shield runs from TTN-NYC roughly...BUT, I cannot see the surface temps. There does appear to be a bit of CAD signature from the high though, so if you ask me its snowing from 120-126 hours. Wunderground shows the surface temps in the mid 30's and rising fast. But there is a 3-5 hour window of precip falling as things are still cold enough. Especially away from the coast. This is for Northern NJ and into NYC. South of there and along LI coast, surface temps are in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yea - that's true in any event - welcome to New Jersey surface temps along coastal New Jersey at 120 - 126 hours are unfortunately low to mid 40's. Once you get south of about Rt. 78 the snow hopes fade rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 no help from the euro ensembles, they are west of the OP, not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll be on the beach, the polar bear club this year might make it a whole day in the water. Eatings hotdogs with Joey chestnut at coney island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Forgive me in advance for this but the Euro weenie maps still show accumulating snow just NW of the city. Is this not even a remote possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A tad interesting on the 18z NAM Energy closes off over the TX panhandle, meanwhile energy is diving through the Rockies, could this eventually catch up to the closed off energy and phase or would this definitly act as a "kicker" shortwave? Meanwhile northern stream energy comes through the Great Lakes mucking up the picture. Looks quite a bit different than the 12z GFS for the same time table. On the Goofus the trough over the the Lakes is actually in SE Canada and much more amplified. The S/W over the midwest is not closed off and is a few hundred miles northeast of the NAM. Finaly, the energy diving down through the Rockies on the NAM is actually over Los Angles on the 12z Goofus. The Euro is sort of in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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