ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wundermap clown maps actually have snow. Weird. Those maps are very faulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 We've had low expectations all along. But what has to happen exactly to make this storm work out for us? Which is still quite possible 5 days out no?? Anything is possible, but this was a long shot. It was a brief window of opportunity. I never wanted anything substantial on the 25th because of the retreating HP. If this was a small event that bombed out later, we would have had the last piece of energy to come through with a good baroclynic zone and better cold air moving in. The euro hasn't shown that scenario yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wundermap clown maps actually have snow. Weird. Those maps are very faulty. there would be an hour or two in the beginning for everyone I think. Probably between 6 and 10am on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there would be an hour or two in the beginning for everyone I think. Probably between 6 and 10am on the 25th. Something to get up for to see on Christmas. Just finding some positive until the models look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS has really been struggling with the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 actually, looking at the surface temps, the area stays quite cold just to the west of the city, throughout most of Northern NJ. It looks like temps will be in the lower to middle 30's the entire time. It may not be over yet at all. Looking at the surface be that cold is actually not what I expected to see, given that the 850's get that warm. There is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there would be an hour or two in the beginning for everyone I think. Probably between 6 and 10am on the 25th. Surface temps are in the mid 30's for the start and rise into the upper 30's with every other level fine. This run actually has a couple hours of a front end thump. Especially for PA and NJ and even for NYC and west. From Christmas noonish to about 5pmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Tombo in Philly forum saying snowshowers Monday!! Oh yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm beginning to think some people are going to start losing control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Surface temps are in the mid 30's for the start and rise into the upper 30's with every other level fine. This run actually has a couple hours of a front end thump. Especially for PA and NJ and even for NYC and west. From Christmas noonish to about 5pmish. Which is what HM was referring to earlier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Surface temps are in the mid 30's for the start and rise into the upper 30's with every other level fine. This run actually has a couple hours of a front end thump. Especially for PA and NJ and even for NYC and west. From Christmas noonish to about 3pmish. earlier I think. Anyway, it is possible the euro should have ejected this as a smaller piece vort while the main show comes down the back side after the 25th which would preserve a chance to have something more frozen, but the euro is really honing in on this solution now, so I doubt it at this point. Of course all these vorts are in the middle of nowwhere and you have energy ejecting from the SW conus which mucks everything up so the flat gfs could be just as right as the euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yuck. Just yuck. If models are right in bringing a new PV into Alaska, it's lights out. Just a flood of unseasonably mild air into Canada in this type of patten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm beginning to think some people are going to start losing control. Everyone is behavng in here right now, don't ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 actually gets it down to 996mb just southeast of Long Island at 138 hrs. Unreal. Just a little colder and ..... oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 though the GFS and Euro deviate in the short term.. I think the two strong anomolies which are showing up are the huge PVs over Alaska and Greenland, so after the Christmas time, unfortunately both models are looking very benign in that later time period... 2 huge anomolies working against us will be very hard to overcome probably.. and being that the anomolies are being forecasted so strong this far out, there might be a possibility that this solution, more or less, comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 earlier I think. Anyway, it is possible the euro should have ejected this as a smaller piece vort while the main show comes down the back side after the 25th which would preserve a chance to have something more frozen, but the euro is really honing in on this solution now, so I doubt it at this point. Of course all these vorts are in the middle of nowwhere and you have energy ejecting from the SW conus which mucks everything up so the flat gfs could be just as right as the euro right now. Would prefer this storm to speed up a little more and provide us with more front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Would prefer this storm to speed up a little more and provide us with more front end. Thats about what I was going to say, the earlier the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 has it as a 988mb over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs. This is pretty much what the UKMET showed, bombing this thing into the 980's also. Based on this, the chances of the GFS being correct are about ZERO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 +AO and +NAO be killin it!! Such a Shane too with so much activity in the southern jet. We coulda pulled something out with somewhat of a neutral tele set up. The tidying tries it's hardest on this. But like people were saying, can't count out a little front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thats about what I was going to say, the earlier the better. there is an intense mid level push of warm air, so even if you bring the precip in earlier, you are gonna get the same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 has it as a 988mb over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs. This is pretty much what the UKMET showed, bombing this thing into the 980's also. Based on this, the chances of the GFS being correct are about ZERO This is the perfect type of storm where we used to take bets at work as to what run the GFS would pick it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 +AO and +NAO be killin it!! Such a Shane too with so much activity in the southern jet. We coulda pulled something out with somewhat of a neutral tele set up. The tidying tries it's hardest on this. But like people were saying, can't count out a little front end thump. you would get 1-3 from the front on this if it happened as modeled, but man or man that warm push is coming in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 looks like the whole continent of Europe massively torches, just looking at the 500 mb charts very late in the Euro's timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The warm air is moving in quick aloft, but based on the surface temps not really warming up much to the NW of the storm I just wonder how much of that precip falls before the 850's warm up above freezing? It is not clear-cut. We have 6 hour intervals to work with and in the one interval we have temps in the lower to middle 30's and 850's below, then we have temps in the middle to upper 30's and temps above at the 850 level, but how much of the precip fell before the upper level warmed up? These types of situations will make you crazy. Anything is possible, but it really is a close call for areas NW of the city. you would get 1-3 from the front on this if it happened as modeled, but man or man that warm push is coming in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 looks like the whole continent of Europe massively torches, just looking at the 500 mb charts very late in the Euro's timeframe. There is an epic surface ridge on the GFS too, didn't see what the Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The warm air is moving in quick aloft, but based on the surface temps not really warming up much to the NW of the storm I just wonder how much of that precip falls before the 850's warm up above freezing? It is not clear-cut. We have 6 hour intervals to work with and in the one interval we have temps in the lower to middle 30's and 850's below, then we have temps in the middle to upper 30's and temps above at the 850 level, but how much of the precip fell before the upper level warmed up? These types of situations will make you crazy. Anything is possible, but it really is a close call for areas NW of the city. there is more to it than 850 and surface i can tell there is probably a nasty 800 level or maybe 700 level warm wedge in there. Don't even need the sounding, it fits the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 There is an epic surface ridge on the GFS too, didn't see what the Euro has. yea, the Euro has it too.. actually, I didn't realize how prolonged it was. It's pretty much there the whole forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 something tells me I am going to be adding a lot of people to the golf chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 we really did have a prolonged massive period of blocking last year... until I looked at this, couldn't really appreciate how big it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 true. Possibly some sleet or freezing rain in the colder locations. I really can't believe how much is does not warm up the surface temps, all things considered. I know in my area, honestly, it tends to be several degrees too warm with surface temps in situations such as this. there is more to it than 850 and surface i can tell there is probably a nasty 800 level or maybe 700 level warm wedge in there. Don't even need the sounding, it fits the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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