Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Strom trying to get organized on the GFS, but the vort is very strung out....not sure if this comes up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z gfs isn't going to do anything on or after xmas. No amplification completely flat like the 6z. Trend, or fact? no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 oooff.. man is the GFS ugly, or what! Wow! The whole U.S. is under positive height anomolies.. and not just a bit... a whole lot.. and the SD over Greenland looks like they maybe drop closer to 4 SD.. it's off the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its a shame too because there is a nice moisture influx over texas if there was just something there to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z gfs isn't going to do anything on or after xmas. No amplification completely flat like the 6z. Trend, or fact? no clue. I don't know.. it was hinting at this a few days ago and backed off.. now, it's back at it again... The Euro at least didn't look this torch like, did it? I haven't look at it in detail yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS has 2 rainstorms then nothing. Second run in a row, Euro still has something for christmas though, so cant rule out a storm completely. At least the GFS brings in some nice cold from christmas eve onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know.. it was hinting at this a few days ago and backed off.. now, it's back at it again... The Euro at least didn't look this torch like, did it? I haven't look at it in detail yet. the euro looks nothing like this. Its amplified. the 00z ensembles of the gfs didn't look like this, its something the 6z gfs did. Until i see the ensembles and the euro, i can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 and to really slap us on the face, the Alaskan vortex of death is also showing up with near -4 SD anomolies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wow, this is one ugly, ugly run of the GFS. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I was just comparing the NH 500 maps of the Euro from last night and the GFS... It appears what is happening is that the GFS wants to completely cutoff and stretch the cutoff in the southwest and it allows ridging to build into the country more oriented in a west - east fashion rather than a more amplified north-south fashion that the Euro has... eventually the Euro merges that energy in the southwest as part of the broader wavelength.. whereas the GFS just completely loses that energy.. That orientation looks a bit weird in the GFS and the massive stretching kind of looks odd, although I don't know how possible it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I was just comparing the NH 500 maps of the Euro from last night and the GFS... It appears what is happening is that the GFS wants to completely cutoff and stretch the cutoff in the southwest and it allows ridging to build into the country more oriented in a west - east fashion rather than a more amplified north-south fashion that the Euro has... eventually the Euro merges that energy in the southwest as part of the broader wavelength.. whereas the GFS just completely loses that energy.. That orientation looks a bit weird in the GFS and the massive stretching kind of looks odd, although I don't know how possible it is. yup, its a thorn in the side of all the models when we bury energy into the SW Gfs then re-amplifies the pattern but by the time its done we lost the setup on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS has the vortex over alaska becoming an absolute beast.. we actually start getting good height anomolies over Greenland at that point, but there is absolutely no hope of amplfication in the pacific due to that overwhelming vortex. Hopefully this solution is way wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm actually a bit surprised that the surface reflection doesn't look better for us on the 28th.. that is a decent looking wave coming through.. it's too progressive, but I would have expected a bit more in the way of QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS has the vortex over alaska becoming an absolute beast.. we actually start getting good height anomolies over Greenland at that point, but there is absolutely no hope of amplfication in the pacific due to that overwhelming vortex. Hopefully this solution is way wrong I'm actually a bit surprised that the surface reflection doesn't look better for us on the 28th.. that is a decent looking wave coming through.. it's too progressive, but I would have expected a bit more in the way of QPF output. I think the GFS really fell off its rocker here. Up until hour 72 I thought it was going to be quite amplified. Of course when the euro, ggem, and ensembles look the same way, we have issues, but until then, better to just assume the GFS laid an egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the GFS really fell off its rocker here. Up until hour 72 I thought it was going to be quite amplified. Of course when the euro, ggem, and ensembles look the same way, we have issues, but until then, better to just assume the GFS laid an egg. as long as a lot of the other major models are not in agreement with this at all, then it was basically a combo Giants/Jets week 15 performance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 as long as a lot of the other major models are not in agreement with this at all, then it was basically a combo Giants/Jets week 15 performance... Please, I still have stomach pains from Sunday. Fail You coming with me on Thursday or what? respond to my PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB's comments Quote Its Looks wrong.. again in the typical error mode. it hands energy off to the front runner, and then flattens and destroys the system that could cause the Christmas storm. Obviously I am in no mood to change my ideas since the last one actually went too far west than what I had after its flat fiasco out to sea. I will post later after I study everything, but for right now, the model closest to my idea is the euro" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 what's amazing is that the GFS doesn't even have remotely anything near a threat in fantasy range too... With it's temp solutions.. I don't think it really has any sub-freezing high days and quite honestly, not even a lot of days of sub-40 highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Canadian looks warm and crappy at 144 hrs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Canadian looks warm and crappy at 144 hrs. http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif at least its amplfied. We can tell more from ewall in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yes, it is definitely amplified. Maybe it can produce something later. at least its amplfied. We can tell more from ewall in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB's comments Quote Its Looks wrong.. again in the typical error mode. it hands energy off to the front runner, and then flattens and destroys the system that could cause the Christmas storm. Obviously I am in no mood to change my ideas since the last one actually went too far west than what I had after its flat fiasco out to sea. I will post later after I study everything, but for right now, the model closest to my idea is the euro" I agree. The 12z GFS hands off more energy to first s/w moving across Lakes, than to the second s/w back over the Rockies. The 0z Euro and GFS was the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Old EE rule says go with Euro/NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ensembles are more amplified but probably not enough to show anything siginificant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 UKMET absolutely bombs this thing out somewhere between 120 and 144 hrs but at 144 hrs it is way out in the open Atlantic, looks much more like the Euro 120 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 UKMET absolutely bombs this thing out somewhere between 120 and 144 hrs but at 144 hrs it is way out in the open Atlantic, looks much more like the Euro 120 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1 We'll find out from the 12z Euro if it's the UK southerly bias at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 well, the cmc has the post xmas storm, and it warm. Looks like its all southern stream induced and over amplified. CMC had this problem last year over amplifying waves and making them very warm at leasts its not flat and zonal like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Around and around we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 well so far the Euro is not flat like the GFS. If anything good comes out of it, too soon to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wow, the Euro is really producing something interesting here along the Gulf Coast at 102 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.