TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah true, check Philly thread Jb map showing us in heaviest snow for sat-mon storm 3, didn't last night he say warm. not sure what JB has to do with the models. He sucsk, I agree, but that is more about him having to draw in subscriptions, and less about him not knowing the science. I would be more than happy to continue this with you in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 not sure what JB has to do with the models. He sucsk, I agree, but that is more about him having to draw in subscriptions, and less about him not knowing the science. I would be more than happy to continue this with you in the banter thread. Meet ya there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 interestingly enough this is the best I have seen this look for the third wave yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah true, check Philly thread Jb map showing us in heaviest snow for sat-mon storm 3, didn't last night he say warm. That was regarding January I think, lets also not forget the system a week and a half back that looked like it had some snow potential for the area 3-4 days out he went with like 3-6 inches if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 good map showing the euro caught between storms here. Check out the energy diving into the midwest and how its trying to close off at 500 and arguably should have the storm organizging over the south but instead it seems to go back to focusing on the energy of storm 2 and you get the slop storm instead of a better system with fresher colder air a few frames later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean at hour 144. Colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Guess we can finally consider this a legit threat? GFS doing the good old fashioned losing the storm in the 4-6 day period. Lock it, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 6z GEFS also went colder with the friday storm. It looks like the Euro. That high pressure up north is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 6z GEFS also went colder with the friday storm. It looks like the Euro. That high pressure up north is impressive. Anthony, the surface is in the mid 40's for Friday. No chance with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah that was regarding the changeover event that initially looked more promising. Of course most of us saw no snow. He also said it would snow in the midatlantic last weekend. Granted there were some flurries but I'm pretty sure he was talking about an accumulating event. I've basically started ignoring him. That was regarding January I think, lets also not forget the system a week and a half back that looked like it had some snow potential for the area 3-4 days out he went with like 3-6 inches if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anthony, the surface is in the mid 40's for Friday. No chance with this storm. He sees a blue H up north and thinks cold. Refuses to learn or even look at surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 He sees a blue H up north and thinks cold. Refuses to learn or even look at surface temps. I am just saying that the GFS and Euro were a little colder than previous runs for the 1st storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I am just saying that the GFS and Euro were a little colder than previous runs for the 1st storm. But they aren't. If anything the low levels, including the surface are warmer then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The control run of the Euro was a little more impressive than the operational run with the Christmas day storm. It has a 1004mb low near the NJ shore at 18z on Christmas day that it deepens to a 996mb low by Cape Cod at 0z on Christmas night. Precip amounts are near 1 inch in our area and the 850 line gets as far north as Rt. 80 in NJ, possibly the Bronx in NYC and then pivots just inland of NYC in Northern New Jersey. It looks like the NW burbs about 10-20 miles NW of NYC would get hit pretty good. The next storm it has for us is for the 30th into the 31st and that one could go either way, it has the 850's below 0 for most of the storm, except at the end it gets above. It brings that storm that you see at 240 hrs on the operational run, right up the coast to Long Island at 276 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly still have a hard time believing there is another run of the Euro out there Accuweather is showing. As some have said here before, its basically a member of the ensemble so it could just be like everyones favorite GEFS member that shows a better solution than the op run. The control run of the Euro was a little more impressive than the operational run with the Christmas day storm. It has a 1004mb near the NJ shore at 18z on Christmas day that it deepens to a 996mb low by Cape Cod at 0z on Christmas night. Precip amounts are near 1 inch in our area and the 850 line gets as far north as Rt. 80 in NJ, possibly the Bronx in NYC and then pivots just inland of NYC in Northern New Jersey. It looks like the NW burbs about 10-20 miles NW of NYC would get hit pretty good. The next storm it has for us if for the 30th into the 31st and that one could go either way, it has the 850's below 0 for most of the storm, except at the end it gets above. It brings that storm that you see at 240 hrs on the operational run, right up the coast to Long Island at 276 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly still have a hard time believing there is another run of the Euro out there Accuweather is showing. As some have said here before, its basically a member of the ensemble so it could just be like everyones favorite GEFS member that shows a better solution than the op run. Agree. The GEFS also has a control member, C0 member. Probably the same exact thing with regards to the euro control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe, I don't know, but sometimes it does better than the operational run and sometimes it doesn't. Just another tool. It is nice though that it goes out to 360 hrs. It is the control run of the ensemble members, much like P001 of the GFS ensembles I honestly still have a hard time believing there is another run of the Euro out there Accuweather is showing. As some have said here before, its basically a member of the ensemble so it could just be like everyones favorite GEFS member that shows a better solution than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly still have a hard time believing there is another run of the Euro out there Accuweather is showing. As some have said here before, its basically a member of the ensemble so it could just be like everyones favorite GEFS member that shows a better solution than the op run. It's junk. Saw it the other night. It's the weenies ensemble member and nothing more. Something for accuweather to charge for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yes, I believe that is what it is. Like I said, I have seen it show trends to the operational run on many occasions, but not always. Agree. The GEFS also has a control member, C0 member. Probably the same exact thing with regards to the euro control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have been following it for months. It is worth something. I have seen it show trends many times. If you don't want to believe it, that is fine. But what I am telling you is the truth. It's junk. Saw it the other night. It's the weenies ensemble member and nothing more. Something for accuweather to charge for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have been following it for months. It is worth something. I have seen it show trends many times. If you don't want to believe it, that is fine. But what I am telling you is the truth. If you follow every single gefs member, it mau show a trend or be right sometimes, wrong sometimes. I truly don't think it adds any addtional value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 back to the holiday threats. Not much to be taken from the end of the NAM run as after 60 hours its still more of a random number generator but there is really no hope to that first wave, its a cold rain and where its cold enough to be snow, there is no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its colder than the op run because its further south and east and weaker. You bring the storm closer to the coast and it gets warmer. 0z Euro ensemble mean at hour 144. Colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its colder than the op run because its further south and east and weaker. You bring the storm closer to the coast and it gets warmer. that storm has to be later and must be the product of the energy diving into the trough, or its rain as I said earlier, the euro seems to be in between worlds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not disagreeing with you at all, just hoping snow88 would realize the reason why the mean is "colder" that storm has to be later and must be the product of the energy diving into the trough, or its rain as I said earlier, the euro seems to be in between worlds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not disagreeing with you at all, just hoping snow88 would realize the reason why the mean is "colder" i know, i was just continuing the disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The onset of measureable precip from this first system continues to get delayed... I was figuring that with this weak of a system, it would never be able to produce anything before the warm air surged in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The NAO looks like it's going to be highly positive in the days right before Christmas.. Vortex moves essentially right near Greenland according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 as low as -3 SD height anomolies forecasted on Christmas eve over Greenland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The NAO looks like it's going to be highly positive in the days right before Christmas.. Vortex moves essentially right near Greenland according to the GFS. And the stratosphere shows no signs of major warming in the 8-10 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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