NaoPos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yea... nothing spectacular on this run... the kicker s/w out west pushes the ridge east and keeps it from amplifying.. not that much interaction..OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yea... nothing spectacular on this run... the kicker s/w out west pushes the ridge east and keeps it from amplifying.. not that much interaction..OTS kicker would have minimal impact if the northern stream energy presented like before, but alas, its not there this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 northern stream doesnt dig as much and the trough takes on a v shaped look so we dont get a phase or amplification, still worth watching. Dont forget there is atleast 3-4 systems before that one that the models have to get through. Also the overall setup doesnt look like anything would cut inland, atleast imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Still plenty of potential here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z GGEM The Canadian went nuts with amount of storms tonight - the last couple have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Canadian offers another solution. The s/w misses the first connection with the northern stream, but tries to catch the next one. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Ggem later in the run gets attractive... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 End result of the euro. A storm track just inside the BM, probly too warm verbatim with the high slipping off the coast of Maine. Ridge out west is nice, the trough is also good. The northern stream dives hard in the Midwest which helps amplify the trough. In future runs, we are gonna need a stronger low to get snow. The H5 trough never really goes negative so it can't deepen rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z GGEM It seldom snows with the anticyclone 1/3rd of the way to the British Isles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ECM Not a bad run even if not snow verbatim. With this pattern, we will likely see shifts for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 However, the ECMWF solution is arguably a "thump snow" where the UVM-induced wet snow comes ahead of the warming profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 However, the ECMWF solution is arguably a "thump snow" where the UVM-induced wet snow comes ahead of the warming profiles. that high pressure just didnt want to leave until the very last second, lol. euro has another storm coming out of the gulf around new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 End result of the euro. A storm track just inside the BM, probly too warm verbatim with the high slipping off the coast of Maine. Ridge out west is nice, the trough is also good. The northern stream dives hard in the Midwest which helps amplify the trough. In future runs, we are gonna need a stronger low to get snow. The H5 trough never really goes negative so it can't deepen rapidly. Is this for the Christmas Eve - Christmas Day storm or the potential storm on the 27th with the third shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wunderground ECM weenie maps give NW areas a decent amount of snow from 141-150.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is this for the Christmas Eve - Christmas Day storm or the potential storm on the 27th with the third shortwave? the last of the shortwave events which is around the 26th, the ones before that pretty much have no shot to give nyc snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wunderground ECM weenie maps give NW areas a decent amount of snow from 141-150.. Thats is great 18% of the posters get a gift, wonderful, This is a joke, just like January looks like one. At this point as weather enthusiasts we should root for a snowless winter. Not that I'm rooting for it but as weather enthusiasts we should root for a snowless winter, just so we can say we experienced it. The October storm at least makes this winter worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the last of the shortwave events which is around the 26th, the ones before that pretty much have no shot to give nyc snow The most desirable outcome I want is the 0z GGEM solution, which is a compromise between the 0z GFS and the 0z Euro. We need to have a bit of a flatter ridge out over the Rockies so that the southern shortwave does not get overly amplified into the ensuing trough. The northern shortwave from Canada should dive in harder and faster so that heights out ahead of the system would be lower. I also hope that we get a series of shortwaves rather than one shortwave; because a single shortwave tends to be very strong by itself and pumps more WAA with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ECM Verbatim thats rain, but the Euro can have a tendency to be too warm and thats a setup that if the low is strong enough and you're getting decent VV you can get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Verbatim thats rain, but the Euro can have a tendency to be too warm and thats a setup that if the low is strong enough and you're getting decent VV you can get snow. I agree. The 0z Euro has a decent coastal front over Western LI between 138-141hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I agree. The 0z Euro has a decent coastal front over Western LI between 138-141hrs. Someone would get pounded in interior New England in that setup, there is likely a serious easterly jet around 700-800mb in that setup with the high positioned off SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro tried to make my storm work, it was close. So funny, everything went soft on that last wave last night except the euro its gonna be a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Actually, the euro is like wave 2.5 its not the second storm, but not quite the third either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 6z gfs went south and colder with the first low, ots with the 2nd low and lost the 3rd low. The models are going to have trouble with all these lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 However, the ECMWF solution is arguably a "thump snow" where the UVM-induced wet snow comes ahead of the warming profiles. yeah, with room to wet bulb at the start as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's really sad how bad the models suck every run is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's really sad how bad the models suck every run is different this is probably more appropriate for the banter thread, but the models dont "suck". Your looking at storm systems three to five days away and the models do a remarkable job with the 500mb setup that far out. There are so many different things that go into predicting what the atmosphere will do, especially with heat release. Fact is, because they show a storm 50 miles inland one run then 50 miles ots another doesnt mean they suck, its just what happens trying to show something that far out in time. Are some much better than others? yes, the euro is ions ahead of the nogaps, yes, and comparitively, it sucks, lol, but the gfs and euro and ukie do an extremely good job at giving us a ballpark of what will happen very far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 However, the ECMWF solution is arguably a "thump snow" where the UVM-induced wet snow comes ahead of the warming profiles. It has shown this solution for the past 2-3 runs now, and given how the GFS flip flopped from 0z to 6z, you have to think its the most credible solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 this is probably more appropriate for the banter thread, but the models dont "suck". Your looking at storm systems three to five days away and the models do a remarkable job with the 500mb setup that far out. There are so many different things that go into predicting what the atmosphere will do, especially with heat release. Fact is, because they show a storm 50 miles inland one run then 50 miles ots another doesnt mean they suck, its just what happens trying to show something that far out in time. Are some much better than others? yes, the euro is ions ahead of the nogaps, yes, and comparitively, it sucks, lol, but the gfs and euro and ukie do an extremely good job at giving us a ballpark of what will happen very far out in time. Yeah true, check Philly thread Jb map showing us in heaviest snow for sat-mon storm 3, didn't last night he say warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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