ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12/25-12/26 would have been a small fish. Now is not the time to start playing wreckless football. We're only down one touchdown and its still the first quarter. December 28th-January 5th is the time to watch. If the northern stream was a little more aggressive, and phased with that southern shortwave, it had a chance to be a pretty decent storm, with plenty of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, in a year that has been so crazy from start to finish, it's tough to say that something is completely dead until its gone. We all saw the major flip flop in the models almost a year ago to the day. If for some chance the models are incorrectly handeling some of the finer details, we could still get something out of this. When I left the office last year on 12/23, my forecast for 12/26 was mostly cloudy with flurries possible, we all know how that ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, in a year that has been so crazy from start to finish, it's tough to say that something is completely dead until its gone. We all saw the major flip flop in the models almost a year ago to the day. If for some chance the models are incorrectly handeling some of the finer details, we could still get something out of this. When I left the office last year on 12/23, my forecast for 12/26 was mostly cloudy with flurries possible, we all know how that ended up. The southern shortwave is in prime sampling territory now and is well sampled. It will strengthen, close off and sit in the SW for too long. I highly doubt that every single model is wrong here. If it were a question of a poorly sampled piece of the northern stream, then yes. But its clear that the southern shortwave will not cooperate for the 25/26th storm. Im pretty sure, it will cooperate with the Dec. 27/28th storm, but unfortunately it will be too warm by then. HM said many times, that that southern shortwave will eventually eject itself and produce a large storm. That will probably happen middle of next week, but it probably wont be in our favor again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The southern shortwave is in prime sampling territory now and is well sampled. It will strengthen, close off and sit in the SW for too long. I highly doubt that every single model is wrong here. If it were a question of a poorly sampled piece of the northern stream, then yes. But its clear that the southern shortwave will not cooperate for the 25/26th storm. Im pretty sure, it will cooperate with the Dec. 27/28th storm, but unfortunately it will be too warm by then. HM said many times, that that southern shortwave will eventually eject itself and produce a large storm. That will probably happen middle of next week, but it probably wont be in our favor again. I was in no way comparing this year to last, a pattern which had so much going for it. Things have just been so crazy in recent time in terms of extreme weather and natural disasters that we should begin to expect the unexpected. I really like the 12/28-1/5 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The 12z NAM already has the low on Tuesday at 0z stronger and well NW of the GFS at the same time over the southeast. This definitely looks like it will phase with the northern stream, at least somewhat, if not completely. I assume it will be a warm solution. I am just wondering how things will interact with that low out in the Atlantic Ocean almost acting as a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The 12z NAM already has the low on Tuesday at 0z stronger and well NW of the GFS at the same time over the southeast. This definitely looks like it will phase with the northern stream, at least somewhat, if not completely. I assume it will be a warm solution. I am just wondering how things will interact with that low out in the Atlantic Ocean almost acting as a 50/50 It's already been discussed, the NAM goes atomic amplified over the MS river valley pumping up heights along the coast. We need more digging and a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Looks like the gfs still likes new years, lets see how long it takes that to become a warm SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 gefs still honking for new years. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12z GGEM also brings the Dec. 27/28 storm into the Apps and drops 1.25"+ of rain over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12z GGEM also brings the Dec. 27/28 storm into the Apps and drops 1.25"+ of rain over us. Good. What was at one time my backyard and since September has turned into a lake needs replenished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12z GGEM also brings the Dec. 27/28 storm into the Apps and drops 1.25"+ of rain over us. At least we can add onto the record rainfall year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Quite a change on the models today for Tuesday-Wednesday with the GFS/ECM/CMC now showing heavy rain, but considering that it's still 90-102 hours out there's still enough room for change with this one, and the trends with most of the more recent storms has been to go north/west and warmer. It's possible that it could stay where it is or go a bit east, but I'd be more tempted to go with a western Northeast or potentially eastern Great Lakes storm track for this one with more heavy rain and the potential for another brief 50+ degree surge in the warmer case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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