TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 yep... and it's not even just the vortices.. the whole entire pattern in the pacific being depicted between the 2 models is completely different.. but again, like you said, sampling is poor out there.. I fricking told earthlight to take his spa profits and buy some weather balloons to launch out in the PAC and in Canada but did he listen to me? nooooo, he went out and bought three more tanning beds. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I fricking told earthlight to take his spa profits and buy some weather balloons to launch out in the PAC and in Canada but did he listen to me? nooooo, he went out and bought three more tanning beds. Sheesh. lol.. no wonder why it's been so warm out lately.. I think the tanning beds might have something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 lol.. no wonder why it's been so warm out lately.. I think the tanning beds might have something to do with it. secretely he loves the torch. I think he was at the beach today while I was hitting the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 nam is a swing and a miss with the phase..However, the northern stream energy looks better aligned and the ridge out west is a bit more ampd. We'll see if the gfs holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On the GFS today, the northern stream has trending slower and less amplified over the Upper Mid-West. While the southern stream is trending to come out faster and stronger. And I think what's causing northern stream to amply faster. If this trend continues tonight, we'll see this more amplified. Of course, we will still need the other models to agree, with this trend: 6z: 12z: 18z: The storm's definitely not going to turn into any full nor'easter, but this trend does seem to bring back the chance for some light rain/snow showers. It wouldn't surprise me to see Upton reintroduce a chance for rain/snow showers if this trend continues on the GFS. What would you say the chances are for this to bring more than light precipitation? It's becoming more likely that we could see some scattered rain/snow showers, and although probability isn't high, it will be interesting to see if this storm could produce more than scattered light QPF especially if the trend towards more amplification continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 nam is a swing and a miss with the phase..However, the northern stream energy looks better aligned and the ridge out west is a bit more ampd. We'll see if the gfs holds serve see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 While it probably won't be enough, NAM is definitely more consolidated and digging more then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 see above. i know, i saw. Im just saying what the nam has. at hr 72, the southern vort is all by itself over the texas panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i know, i saw. Im just saying what the nam has. at hr 72, the southern vort is all by itself over the texas panhandle Yoda is down there to keep it company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i know, i saw. Im just saying what the nam has. at hr 72, the southern vort is all by itself over the texas panhandle Yeah. Not digging nearly enough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 gfs is gonna be close. Probably not enough but much better than the NAM. Oh well, something to keep an eye on while we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 gfs is gonna be close. Probably not enough but much better than the NAM. Oh well, something to keep an eye on while we torch. I was just looking at the GFS...it's close, and pretty large changes from the 18z GFS...still will be a christmas miracle if anything is to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 next, as earthlight would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wow... GFS goes from having the southern vort move too fast and escape to the east to having it trapped below the northern vort because it was too slow. All in 6 hours, all for a storm 80 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 next, as earthlight would say It's still comical to watch...the differences at 500 are comical. At 18z, the vort was over NE Arkansas...this run it is over South central Oklahoma in the same time frame... Pretty pathetic in handling this, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wow... GFS goes from having the southern vort move too fast and escape to the east to having it trapped below the northern vort because it was too slow. All in 6 hours, all for a storm 80 hrs out The timeframe we are looking at is only 60 hours out, I mean, the changes are massive...I can see them, and I really am a complete noob looking at this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The timeframe we are looking at is only 60 hours out, I mean, the changes are massive...I can see them, and I really am a complete noob looking at this stuff. The two runs show how exact things must be. I have to say we should be pessimistic about it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The timeframe we are looking at is only 60 hours out, I mean, the changes are massive...I can see them, and I really am a complete noob looking at this stuff. Changes will keep happening until the northern vort is sampled. It's very common in Nina years dominated by strong northern stream shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ukie also hanging back the energy through hour 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We really could have used blocking to slow down and amplify the northern stream s/w, that way it could have had time to phase with the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GGEM also leaves back energy just like the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 For what it is worth the euro went alot faster with the shortwave 00z run but still did not do it. Any time the euro goes faster with a shortwave is a red flag IMO as it tends to have a bias of holding them back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think we can stick a fork in it, with a storm on Christmas. The southern s/w cuts starts cutting off too far SW and the northern s/w runs out ahead of it. Therefore, missing any connection. The models do have another northern s/w that tries phase with this one 27-28th. But I think it might phase too early, for us along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think we can stick a fork in it, with a storm on Christmas. The southern s/w cuts starts cutting off too far SW and the northern s/w runs out ahead of it. Therefore, missing any connection. The models do have another northern s/w that tries phase with this one 27-28th. But I think it might phase too early, for us along the coast. Yeah. The Christmas one is done. Let's see what happens with the 27-28th one. Looks like it would be a warm one for the coast, if it happened. The Christmas one had plenty of cold air, if the storm formed, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i think we have a good shot at snow showers or light snow for new years, at a minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What are your thoughts for the Tuesday storm? Isn't this the one you were barking about? i think we have a good shot at snow showers or light snow for xmas, at a minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What are your thoughts for the Tuesday storm? Isn't this the one you were barking about? Woops I meant new years. Lol. I dont 28th is still on the radar barely. Something could pop from then till the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, according to the Euro and UKMET there is definitely going to be coastal storm on Tuesday, just don't know the strength or how much cold air it has to work with but both the UKMET and the Euro are close, especially at the start and end. Woops I meant new years. Lol. I dont 28th is still on the radar barely. Something could pop from then till the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, according to the Euro and UKMET there is definitely going to be coastal storm on Tuesday, just don't know the strength or how much cold air it has to work with but both the UKMET and the Euro are close, especially at the start and end. The 6z GFS has it also. But this one looks too warm for anyone near the coast. The cold air moves out. Our best shot was the Dec. 25/26 storm, since there would have been plenty of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The 6z GFS has it also. But this one looks too warm for anyone near the coast. The cold air moves out. Our best shot was the Dec. 25/26 storm, since there would have been plenty of cold air around. 12/25-12/26 would have been a small fish. Now is not the time to start playing wreckless football. We're only down one touchdown and its still the first quarter. December 28th-January 5th is the time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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