earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 If the GFS ridge position and strength is correct, this is going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 both models are trading turns sucking right now, its a fast flow with tons of vorts, there are limitations. The problem though is that the flow downstream of the ridge is so zonal that its hard to slow things down and let the energy phase completely. With no blocking, thats what you'd expect. That being said, if the models are mishandling the speed and strength of the southern vort (like 12/26/10) then we could see something pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If the GFS ridge position and strength is correct, this is going to be very interesting. Yeah, especially with its bias of northern stream domination and southern stream shredding. we are almost inside 84 hours where it starts to lose both biases, big 00z run tonight. Expect nothing and get pumped if it pulls it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If the GFS ridge position and strength is correct, this is going to be very interesting. Without any upstream blocking, not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 A late blooming Miller B is pretty much what we have to hope for. Unfortunately there isn't much working in favor of slowing this down. The ridge on the GFS is pretty nice compared to all other models. Maybe if we get lucky, we can see some kind of inverted trough setup. Because I highly doubt, without any blocking, that we are going to slow down the pattern enough to bring the surface low close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Without any upstream blocking, not really Great insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A late blooming Miller B is pretty much what we have to hope for. Unfortunately there isn't much working in favor of slowing this down. The ridge on the GFS is pretty nice compared to all other models. Maybe if we get lucky, we can see some kind of inverted trough setup. Because I highly doubt, without any blocking, that we are going to slow down the pattern enough to bring the surface low close to the coast. its closing off H5 and bringing it right over to just under NYC. I mean, it's all you can ask for right now. I agree with you though, unless that phases quicker its OTS by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 ensembles seem stronger on the southern split stream energy, but still not enough. Probably some solutions in there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 nope, no solutions on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 as long as the energy hangs back in the sw it will make it next to impossible for the ns to amplify enough to tuck a storm closer to the coast, late miller blooming b's are an ene delight. We would need something to blow up south of the island.......imho an inverted trough would be about as good as it gets for us, and with warm bl temps rather it just be sunny and 58 so i can fish. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The GEFS definitely trended more consolidated and deeper with the trough over the Northeast between +72hr and +90hr. That being said, the main energy is escaping well of to the north and east. The surface low will form near the leading edge of the PVA in association with a negatively tilted trough like this. And with the southern stream being relatively flattened, the northern stream has to go negatively tilted on its own. Given the angle of entrance into the pattern, I would say the chances of getting a surface low close enough to our area to give us relatively decent precipitation are less than 30%. That being said, this is (as modeled) a pretty energetic piece of northern stream energy so I wouldn't totally rule anything out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No help or hope from any of the CIPS analogs, none of the top 15 analogs at 96 hours even ring a bell in my memory of being a storm and the impact guidance does not even show any snow across any part of the area or even SNE for that matter from the 15 analogs. We would need some sort of snowfall to occur possibly with the intense ULL as it crossed the area, the models will likely not grasp onto any potential with the ULL til very late. Another bad sign is the 18Z NAM being very suppresed, the NAM often is overly biased to the NW and amped at the +72 hour range with most systems, in this situation we'd sort of want to see the NAM be showing snow over DE/MD and S NJ to really start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 If only we had a little blocking......so much potential. THe mean ridge position is right where you want. Too bad the Euro says the GFS is nuts This is a way to get a storm in a crap pattern because by developing it late off the MA Coast you don't give it time to cut inland as would be the case with something originating out of the TN Valley, southern Plains, or Gulf. But at the same time you still need great timing so the phase can happen early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 People are chasing a big storm. What we can achieve here is a light event of 1"-3". To get more we need too many things to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 People are chasing a big storm. What we can achieve here is a light event of 1"-3". To get more we need too many things to go right. I think I would cry tears of joy if we got a solid covering of 1-3 inches. I'm serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think I would cry tears of joy if we got a solid covering of 1-3 inches. I'm serious. The worst thing about those storms is that you get a minimal amount of snow and fifty tons of sand thrown on the roadways, I'd rather have no snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 only thing that bothers me is that we have seen these southern vorts stay stronger and this northern vort is still with the eskimos. It could be another 36 hours easy until we really know which way this goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 yeah i was thinking before even if the low goes ots, we should see snow from the robust ULL. Hopefully the 00z models trend in the direction of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The worst thing about those storms is that you get a minimal amount of snow and fifty tons of sand thrown on the roadways, I'd rather have no snow than that. I hear ya. CT actually banned sanding of roads--salt and calcium chloride spray only. I think local towns have a choice, but all state roads cannot be sanded anymore. My town follows the state so it's nice to not have to wait until Memorial day for a street cleaner to pick it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On the GFS today, the northern stream has trending slower and less amplified over the Upper Mid-West. While the southern stream is trending to come out faster and stronger. And I think what's causing northern stream to amply faster. If this trend continues tonight, we'll see this more amplified. Of course, we will still need the other models to agree, with this trend: 6z: 12z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 srefs look like the 18z nam. The southern vort doesnt move out of the SW. Weird. the northern stream energy does looks pretty intense tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 you can see the differences in the NAM vs GFS with regard to the northern stream energy diving down from Canada which the GFS is phasing with the southern stream.. The NAM is not nearly as strong and the ridge is set up on the NAM such that the orientation is causing that energy to travel much further to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 srefs look like the 18z nam. The southern vort doesnt move out of the SW. Weird. the northern stream energy does looks pretty intense tho you can see the differences in the NAM vs GFS with regard to the northern stream energy diving down from Canada which the GFS is phasing with the southern stream.. The NAM is not nearly as strong and the ridge is set up on the NAM such that the orientation is causing that energy to travel much further to the north. way way way too far out for the meso models especially with the limited data available on the northern stream. In terms of the weather world, tons of time here, even though we are talking a very very low probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 way way way too far out for the meso models especially with the limited data available on the northern stream. In terms of the weather world, tons of time here, even though we are talking a very very low probability event. yep agreed. the energy i was looking at actually, as the NAM is rolling out, isn't even the right piece... there's multiple pieces of energy.. we've actually been fortunate in terms of the northern stream energy overperforming for us and helping us out. at least, last year it did, to my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 yep agreed. the energy i was looking at actually, as the NAM is rolling out, isn't even the right piece... there's multiple pieces of energy.. we've actually been fortunate in terms of the northern stream energy overperforming for us and helping us out. at least, last year it did, to my memory Last year, we had blocking. I don't think we do the without a stronger southern branch involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 As with all northern stream vortices, we won't have an exact idea until the shortwave is sampled. The data in that part of the world is scarce. That shortwave won't be sampled until Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 As with all northern stream vortices, we won't have an exact idea until the shortwave is sampled. The data in that part of the world is scarce. That shortwave won't be sampled until Saturday night. Northern stream would allow the colder air to be more dominant and really help us out correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 As with all northern stream vortices, we won't have an exact idea until the shortwave is sampled. The data in that part of the world is scarce. That shortwave won't be sampled until Saturday night. Nina northern stream = loads of energy who knows what's out there. But again, its a looooong shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 As with all northern stream vortices, we won't have an exact idea until the shortwave is sampled. The data in that part of the world is scarce. That shortwave won't be sampled until Saturday night. yep... and it's not even just the vortices.. the whole entire pattern in the pacific being depicted between the 2 models is completely different.. but again, like you said, sampling is poor out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Northern stream would allow the colder air to be more dominant and really help us out correct? I am actually not worried about temps because its very cold at 850 and we have dry antecedent air, so plenty of wet bulb. We need precip and we need VV's (lift) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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