TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If you delay this event 6 more hours, that would be very nice, the HP really makes some good progress shifting into a good position to drain cold into the area sadly they always start earlier than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Agree. Like I said, this would have been an all snow event in a good pattern. That's like saying if the Giants had a better defense, they would win every game The pattern blows, if your looking for the perfect scenario that would provide the best dynamics with the coldest temps, hop on the interstate and drive about 400 miles northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 isnt the nam always too cool in these i guess overunning situations? i just remember clearly from last year the euro and gfs were always too warm until hrs before the event, and the nam was always too cold. Its also fitting to this awesome pattern that the real cold air supportive for snow comes 12 hrs after the precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 isnt the nam always too cool in these i guess overunning situations? i just remember clearly from last year the euro and gfs were always too warm until hrs before the event, and the nam was always too cold. Its also fitting to this awesome pattern that the real cold air supportive for snow comes 12 hrs after the precip ends. Often times the NAM has a bit of a southerly or easterly bias in SW flow type events beyond 36-48 hours and then starts coming north and west thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 isnt the nam always too cool in these i guess overunning situations? i just remember clearly from last year the euro and gfs were always too warm until hrs before the event, and the nam was always too cold. Its also fitting to this awesome pattern that the real cold air supportive for snow comes 12 hrs after the precip ends. we don't know yet since this NAM has been upgraded and has been a much better performer since then. This will be its first true SWFE test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Often times the NAM has a bit of a southerly or easterly bias in SW flow type events beyond 36-48 hours and then starts coming north and west thereafter. Before the upgrade. We dont know after it. And storm is only 36 hours out. At hour 36, its in Virginia, while the globals are well north of that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 These changes and trends are really only for our northern and nw suburbs. I cant see any scenario where anyone near the coast or south of NYC sees any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 These changes and trends are really only for our northern and nw suburbs. I cant see any scenario where anyone near the coast or south of NYC sees any snow. Might see some if you can get more precip up there - it won't be much, but this pattern is so bad that any snow would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 These changes and trends are really only for our northern and nw suburbs. I cant see any scenario where anyone near the coast or south of NYC sees any snow. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Before the upgrade. We dont know after it. And storm is only 36 hours out. At hour 36, its in Virginia, while the globals are well north of that position. IF the NAM is right, then there's an outside shot of a little snow to NYC given better dynamics. One problem is the Euro, GFS, and the GGEM all disagree with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Litchfieldlibations actually has a nice sounding at 39 hours but for the last .33 miles of the atmopshere. Probably a few mangles flakes at the end before crystalization shuts down KBDR's sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Litchfieldlibations actually has a nice sounding at 39 hours but for the last .33 miles of the atmopshere. Probably a few mangles flakes at the end before crystalization shuts down KBDR's sounding Isn't it a shame that's what we're hoping for? Still think the pattern changes around New Years? I'll be losing hope if no change my mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 high-res NAM from e-wall basically keeps places south of I-84 all rain, except for the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 high-res NAM from e-wall basically keeps places south of I-84 all rain, except for the very end yup, soundings show that nicely. Its the boundary layer, too bad, there are no warm wedges anywhere to muck it up, just can't get the caa in here quick enough at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So weird seeing the GFS so much wetter then the NAM. Usually the exact opposite. GFS has over 1" of rain for the city and LI. While the NAM only has .50" for the City and only .25"-.35" for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So weird seeing the GFS so much wetter then the NAM. Usually the exact opposite. GFS has over 1" of rain for the city and LI. While the NAM only has .50" for the City and only .25"-.35" for LI. GFS brings the storm further north--the NAM had the maximum in far S Jersey and southern DE, GFS has it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 high-res NAM from e-wall basically keeps places south of I-84 all rain, except for the very end Pheww.. Thankfully I live 2 miles north of 84.. (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS brings the storm further north--the NAM had the maximum in far S Jersey and southern DE, GFS has it further north. Going to be now casting for the track IMO last time it was Nam vs GFS track wise the Nam won. as for the snow issue I still like mainly rain for most of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 high-res NAM from e-wall basically keeps places south of I-84 all rain, except for the very end I think thats the sort of thing were looking at here. Even a place like danbury might not get much depending on how long dynamics support good snow growth. For the Upton CWA, I only see parts of northern fairfield, putnam, and orange counties getting winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Doesn't matter for the coast, but the gfs went towards the nam with a more southerly and colder track. Nicer run for northern sections and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 00Z RGEM total snow, probably the last time I'll post this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z GFS close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Very close to producing looking at the H5 and H7 levels. Lets see what the rest of the 12z suite does with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sadly too little too late. We needed amplification out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sadly too little too late. We needed amplification out west. The flat ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GEFS. Getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The flat ridge. yes, you and I talked about that a lot. We needed it perfect, we got nothing, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GEFS. Getting closer. that is not happening anthony, let it die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 that is not happening anthony, let it die. Not yet. The models are starting to bring this back closer. A +NAO, +PNA = amplification and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 At this point we would need to pull a replica of what happened last year, the big difference is, not a single model run to date has shown a SECS for our region. Not to mention no 50/50 low, no cold air, no blocking, no west based negative NAO, anything else?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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