Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 850's really made up some ground. Now nearly identical to the previous run at 24 hrs. Interesting. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At 27 hrs it looks se of the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Actually a little SE of 12z through hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 850 line now at the NJ/PA border at 30 hrs. Ever so slightly better than last run actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 at 33 hrs the 850 line is throughout Northern NJ along route 78 north it is below 0 and right on NYC doorstep. A little better than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 at 33 hrs the 850 line is throughout Northern NJ along route 78 north it is below 0 and right on NYC doorstep. A little better than last run. 1028 high coming down at hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12Z December 23rd forecast sounding for KLGA from 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At hour 36, a 1030 high is anchored in Quebec and the 0c line is under NYC with the precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At hour 36, a 1030 high is anchored in Quebec and the 0c line is under NYC with the precip moving in. Temps are in the mid 40's at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes, surface temps are toasty now, but let's see what happens after the precip starts, they should fall pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Temps are in the mid 40's at hour 36. Doesn't matter it's still early anyway. See how temps drop in the following hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well, the 0 line is in central jersey at hour 39 and it was on the south shore of LI at 12z at hour 45, so it is colder at the 850 level waiting on the skew T to see how bad the surface is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 39 hrs is quite a bit colder than the previous run at the 850 level, now has it from Trenton to Sandy hook and -2 appearing in North NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the freezing level gets down to 900mb at 39 hours with the surface at 6 celcius at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 same end result here, by the time the city is cold enough, we arent making snow flakes good to see it continue to cool down though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes, toasty at the surface, even in Sussex County. the freezing level gets down to 900mb at 39 hours with the surface at 6 celcius at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 We would need some heavy precipitation to cool the BL...what a disaster there. 6C? Yikes.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 this is probably a decent run for the hudson valley nw jersey boys and sw ct up into danbury checking those soundings now EDIT: Ugly surface temps as the best VV and dynamics do not get up there and thus there is very little dynamical cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like it may snow from the clouds but not make it to the ground before melting. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks to warm at the surface even in Sussex County to me. High Point might get it, but that is about it. this is probably a decent run for the hudson valley nw jersey boys and sw ct up into danbury checking those soundings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks to warm at the surface even in Sussex County to me. High Point might get it, but that is about it. this is probably a decent run for the hudson valley nw jersey boys and sw ct up into danbury checking those soundings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks to warm at the surface even in Sussex County to me. High Point might get it, but that is about it. this is probably a decent run for the hudson valley nw jersey boys and sw ct up into danbury checking those soundings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks to warm at the surface even in Sussex County to me. High Point might get it, but that is about it. Shocking, given the strength of the high pressure and the placement of the low. If this was a much better pattern, this would an all snow track for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 18z NAM cooled at the 850 levels, but the surface warmed for the simple fact of MUCH less precip. NYC only sees about .50" of precip on this run. To cool the column, we have to see much heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Shocking, given the strength of the high pressure and the placement of the low. If this was a much better pattern, this would an all snow track for the city. Not shocking, the antecedent air mass is god awful. The high pressure is in place but the surface flow isn't established until after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like it may snow from the clouds but not make it to the ground before melting. So close. For the northern sections, yes, the freezing level is above 1500 feet, and when it does cool down enough the crystalization process is defunct need better dynamics to cool the surface but that means bringing the surface low further north and that will mess up the rest of the profile damned if you do, damned if you don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not shocking, the antecedent air mass is god awful. The high pressure is in place but the surface flow isn't established until after the storm passes. Agree. Like I said, this would have been an all snow event in a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Continue to see a high the way it's depicted and the surface won't be torching like that. I'm not saying it will be frigid but 6C overnight with a N to NNE wind? Sounds unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not shocking, the antecedent air mass is god awful. The high pressure is in place but the surface flow isn't established until after the storm passes. Lack of dynamics and heavy precip is the only reason why that NAM run didnt cool down at the surface. Forget the city, Im talking about NWNJ, CT and Northern New Jersey. .50" of precip in this terrible airmass wont do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Way too much warmth leftover below 900 mb after the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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