nycsnow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I heard ant is going to the top of the empire state building snow hunting him and earthlight are having a roof party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just taking a look at the SREF, looks like a large chunk of QPF falls between hours 45-54. During that time the 850 freezing line starts out just north of the area, slices right through our area between hrs 48 and 51 and ends up over central Jersey and off the coast by hour 54. Unless I am analyzing this completely wrong, which is possible it seems that temps start off too warm to support snow except in our highest elevations and only crash below freezing after 95%+ of the QPF has already fallen. If you live outside of the Poconos, Western Orange County and perhaps the Vernon, Hewitt area, don't expect to see more than flurries before the changeover. I am one to normally honk at these types of events but I jus't don't see how this will end will with such a large elongated positive tilted trough with no blocking, no fresh cold air mass and the best dynamics well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I heard ant is going to the top of the empire state building snow hunting him and earthlight are having a roof party banter thread bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS and NAM night and day, like most SWFE's. Big test for the upgraded NAM here, will it hold over the next day or will it adjust. Euro will be interesting for trends, although 90% of this forums members shouldn't expect more than rain and a wet mangled flake at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS held steady. Warm run for everyone here. Keeps the heaviest precip right over NYC, while NAM has it in Southern Jersey. Completely different then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS held steady. Warm run for everyone here. Keeps the heaviest precip right over NYC, while NAM has it in Southern Jersey. Completely different then the NAM. If the NAM continues to bring in solid performances, then we can worry less as the months go on about what the gfs shows short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If the NAM continues to bring in solid performances, then we can worry less as the months go on about what the gfs shows short term. Agree...Nam has done quite well recently. What did Euro show last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS and NAM night and day, like most SWFE's. Big test for the upgraded NAM here, will it hold over the next day or will it adjust. Euro will be interesting for trends, although 90% of this forums members shouldn't expect more than rain and a wet mangled flake at the very end. it is a good test for the NAM as theoretically, it usually should do better on picking up on any cold air.. Didn't the NAM do pretty well with the October storm in terms of picking up on the colder air.. nobody expected that storm to really start as snow, but it did for most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Agree...Nam has done quite well recently. What did Euro show last night? euro had the low right east atlantic city but it was warm for everyone except maybe the tippy top of orange county up in the mid hudson valley Very northern fairfield county may have gotten something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 euro had the low right east atlantic city but it was warm for everyone except maybe the tippy top of orange county up in the mid hudson valley Very northern fairfield county may have gotten something Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it is a good test for the NAM as theoretically, it usually should do better on picking up on any cold air.. Didn't the NAM do pretty well with the October storm in terms of picking up on the colder air.. nobody expected that storm to really start as snow, but it did for most places. NAM has been very good inside 60 and especially inside 48 since the upgrade on picking up the colder air and surface low placement. It also nailed the fact that in the storm two weeks ago, the places that did get cold enough for snow probably weren't going to make snow flakes where the euro was still insisting that Snwyx etc were going to see 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just don't see this being a favorable system for the NYC area. I think a similar outcome to what we saw earlier in the month. We might see several runs that show some colder/snowier solutions, but in the end I think there is nothing to prevent the WAA ahead of the LP as it rides the baroclinic zone. Sure there is a strong HP to the north, but nothing to anchor it in, so I would imagine it will continue to progress out as the storm moves in. That scenario is not favorable for NYC, maybe it works for areas of SNY. The strong temp gradient should also fuel the system, wouldn't surprise me if it produced a heavy cold rain, with a brief ending as snow for the area. Possibly 1-2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just don't see this being a favorable system for the NYC area. I think a similar outcome to what we saw earlier in the month. We might see several runs that show some colder/snowier solutions, but in the end I think there is nothing to prevent the WAA ahead of the LP as it rides the baroclinic zone. Sure there is a strong HP to the north, but nothing to anchor it in, so I would imagine it will continue to progress out as the storm moves in. That scenario is not favorable for NYC, maybe it works for areas of SNY. The strong temp gradient should also fuel the system, wouldn't surprise me if it produced a heavy cold rain, with a brief ending as snow for the area. Possibly 1-2 inches of rain. agree 100%. Great write up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just don't see this being a favorable system for the NYC area. I think a similar outcome to what we saw earlier in the month. We might see several runs that show some colder/snowier solutions, but in the end I think there is nothing to prevent the WAA ahead of the LP as it rides the baroclinic zone. Sure there is a strong HP to the north, but nothing to anchor it in, so I would imagine it will continue to progress out as the storm moves in. That scenario is not favorable for NYC, maybe it works for areas of SNY. The strong temp gradient should also fuel the system, wouldn't surprise me if it produced a heavy cold rain, with a brief ending as snow for the area. Possibly 1-2 inches of rain. I think we can all pretty much agree that NYC proper would still be problematic, even with the best case scenario.. but it's the burbs in the NYC metro area that are questionable, as it's possible that even the burbs get nothing or they could get a pretty decent wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it is a good test for the NAM as theoretically, it usually should do better on picking up on any cold air.. Didn't the NAM do pretty well with the October storm in terms of picking up on the colder air.. nobody expected that storm to really start as snow, but it did for most places. The October storm was a Nor'easter with plenty dynamics. And we plenty of cold air aloft, before that came. This is a SW flow event, with cold air coming in, at the tail end. The NAM is typically too cold at mid-levels. I think GFS might be a bit too warm, but it's probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z Ukie appears to has shifted south, like the NAM, for Friday as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z Ukie appears to has shifted south, like the NAM, for Friday as well: yes, but its very warm still, almost appears to have more of a gfs thermal profile with a NAM track 850'S are almost +2 at NYC at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yes, but its very warm still, almost appears to have more of a gfs thermal profile with a NAM track Its colder then the GFS for sure. Also well south of the GFS. It's the middle road of the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its colder then the GFS for sure. Also well south of the GFS. its really not colder. Here is the NYC sounding at 48 hours, 1 850 1444 1.9 1.3 freezing level is 770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is actually colder than the UKMET at 48 hours. No 45 hour sounding available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That 1032mb high to the north could mean most progged soundings are too warm for the surface right now. We'll see what the Euro and the rest of today's guidance does, but the NAM has been trending stronger w/ the sfc ridge in SE Canada and that will definitely aid in cooling the lower boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is actually colder than the UKMET at 48 hours. No 45 hour sounding available Yeah, it looks that way to me too. The GFS at 48hrs has the 850mb 0C line over NW NJ, while the UKMET has it near Port Jervis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That 1032mb high to the north could mean most progged soundings are too warm for the surface right now. We'll see what the Euro and the rest of today's guidance does, but the NAM has been trending stronger w/ the sfc ridge in SE Canada and that will definitely aid in cooling the lower boundary layer. still got a nasty warm punch to deal with even if we start out colder, you can see it on the NAM maps, the 850 line jumps big time when the precip comes in earthlight goes from like -1 850 to +1 in a nano second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think we can all pretty much agree that NYC proper would still be problematic, even with the best case scenario.. but it's the burbs in the NYC metro area that are questionable, as it's possible that even the burbs get nothing or they could get a pretty decent wintry mix. Agreed but like I said it would most likely be the very favorable and removed burbs, especially elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 still got a nasty warm punch to deal with even if we start out colder, you can see it on the NAM maps, the 850 line jumps big time when the precip comes in earthlight goes from like -1 850 to +1 in a nano second I just did the calculations and I hate to call you out on this, but it is actually a picosecond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just did the calculations and I hate to call you out on this, but it is actually a picosecond. lolz....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro is farther north and warmer than last nights 00z run. This has implications over SNE moreso than our area...the 850 0c line is now maybe 25 miles S of the Mass Pike. Surface low is stronger as well. Nice run for N Mass into Southern VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro through 84 at surface is held back a good bit in the south with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes, I think this pretty much tells us the NAM is WRONG! Euro is farther north and warmer than last nights 00z run. This has implications over SNE moreso than our area...the 850 0c line is now maybe 25 miles S of the Mass Pike. Surface low is stronger as well. Nice run for N Mass into Southern VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 anything after Friday's storm or is it just dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.