MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think the low level cold temp profiles will improve on the models if that high is found in that position and at that strength as depicted. The models have been suggesting at 1030 + high in that spot for days now. The models have been slowly turning colder and south with each run. Lets see if the other models continue with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 best vv's stay just south of NYC on this run, thus keeping the best cold and the best lift separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At 48 hours, NYC is at 37 degrees. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Almost for white plains at 48 hours, but look between -10 and -20, its not saturated, at all Good Morning fellas... Glad to see one of these systems has a legit threat... I like the fact that the wind direction on the soundings show almost a due northerly wind.. That is a great wind direction in funnelling cold air down the hudson valley and giving us the greatest chance to lock in enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 KNYC soundings show all levels below freezing for NYC for hour 45 and hour 48 right up to the 950 level. Surface is still 35-38 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Curious to see the clown maps on the NAM from this run, I would thnk it will show accum snow down to N/C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At 48 hours, NYC is at 37 degrees. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt And freezing level is right up to the 950 level. Yesterday's models had NYC at 58 degrees with 900's +2 to +5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good Morning fellas... Glad to see one of these systems has a legit threat... I like the fact that the wind direction on the soundings show almost a due northerly wind.. That is a great wind direction in funnelling cold air down the hudson valley and giving us the greatest chance to lock in enough cold air. Yeah Jay, agree, but the snow will shut down very quickly after 45 hours on that run. Thankfully we are still far enough out to see more shifts. If someone can get the best lift with the right amount of cold there will be a nice surprise somewhere. Its a trade off however, because this run came way south thus getting things colder but the best lift clearly never makes it to the places where it can snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 KNYC soundings show all levels below freezing for NYC for hour 45 and hour 48 right up to the 950 level. Surface is still 35-38 though. Lack of diurnal heating and a decent high depicted at that position would lower those temps pretty easily IMO. What is the wind trajectory at 10m? It's probably N or NNE on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There will still be about half the precip to come after 45 hrs. Yeah Jay, agree, but the snow will shut down very quickly after 45 hours on that run. Thankfully we are still far enough out to see more shifts. If someone can get the best lift with the right amount of cold there will be a nice surprise somewhere. Its a trade off however, because this run came way south thus getting things colder but the best lift clearly never makes it to the places where it can snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lack of diurnal heating and a decent high depicted at that position would lower those temps pretty easily IMO. What is the wind trajectory at 10m? It's probably N or NNE on the NAM. Hour 42 and 45 has a NNE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah Jay, agree, but the snow will shut down very quickly after 45 hours on that run. Thankfully we are still far enough out to see more shifts. If someone can get the best lift with the right amount of cold there will be a nice surprise somewhere. Its a trade off however, because this run came way south thus getting things colder but the best lift clearly never makes it to the places where it can snow. yep.. definitely agree... it's a close call... definitely don't want a big virga storm like a good part of yesterday... we'll have to thread the needle pretty well. I'm pulling for this one to happen, because it's not looking particularly promising after that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 0z GFS and it's ensembles are showing the AO being negative just in time for this event coming up. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 0z GFS and it's ensembles are showing the AO being negative just in time for this event coming up. Interesting. Hi Ant - I think the overall score of the AO being negative might be just a coincidence, because if you look across the Arctic, there is a bit of a void in the vortex on the other side of the world.. but if you look in our neck of the wood, you'll see that the AO still looks highly positive... I think we are getting lucky whereby a lobe of cold air from the PV up north is swinging down at just the right time. It's one of those transient shots again, but we are lucky enough to have moisture coming up at the same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hi Ant - I think the overall score of the AO being negative might be just a coincidence, because if you look across the Arctic, there is a bit of a void in the vortex on the other side of the world.. but if you look in our neck of the wood, you'll see that the AO still looks highly positive... I think we are getting lucky whereby a lobe of cold air from the PV up north is swinging down at just the right time. It's one of those transient shots again, but we are lucky enough to have moisture coming up at the same time... I agree. The models are forecasting the AO to be extremely positive in the near term. This is how we can get lucky in a terrible pattern like we are in right now. All the models have been trending colder with the storm on Friday. The GFS looks like it's the warmest out of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just saw the NAM trend way south over night. I think Trials hit the nail on the head though, soundings really dont support anything more than a T-1 event at the moment. We'll have to watch the evolution of the best VV's and dynamics, temps seem to be getting more favorable with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just saw the NAM trend way south over night. I think Trials hit the nail on the head though, soundings really dont support anything more than a T-1 event at the moment. We'll have to watch the evolution of the best VV's and dynamics, temps seem to be getting more favorable with each run Thinking NAM would be a sleet/graupel type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thinking NAM would be a sleet/graupel type event. Mangled flakes maybe, I can't see sleet out of a profile like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thinking NAM would be a sleet/graupel type event. Maybe a rain to snow type thing. Looking at the soundings, at hr 45 for HPN, below 950 is still above freezing and the surface is around 38. After that, everything crashes and the surface goes to 34 and is the only thing above freezing. .10 of QPF falls after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 here's some good reference material.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 0z GFS and it's ensembles are showing the AO being negative just in time for this event coming up. Interesting. The dip you see is the PV moved south and east for a hot minute with some ridging on the other side of the pole nosing its way in, its not significant enough in any way to affect this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 here's some good reference material.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php http://www.theweathe...cknesscriteria/ yeah, that first article speaks to what I am referring to. Making snow flakes is going to be the challenge. Sadly, SNWXY got slapped two weeks ago by that, although he had warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yeah, that first article speaks to what I am referring to. Making snow flakes is going to be the challenge. Sadly, SNWXY got slapped two weeks ago by that, although he had warning That was an issue for the entire Northeast.. lol Not just the HV. Besides the airmass in place is almost night and day from then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The dip you see is the PV moved south and east for a hot minute with some ridging on the other side of the pole nosing its way in, its not significant enough in any way to affect this event. yep, exactly.. that's what I was mentioning to Ant on the previous page.. it was more of a coincidence than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That was an issue for the entire Northeast.. lol Not just the HV. Besides the airmass in place is almost night and day from then.. Same kind of timing though. You can see on the NAM maps on ewall the big problem with any SWFE event south of your area, the 850's jump north real fast when the best precip moves in. It's why earthlight cries himself to sleep during these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lol, what the hell is the NAM trying to pull in the Gulf at hr 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lol, what the hell is the NAM trying to pull in the Gulf at hr 84? NAM is more of a random number generator after 60 hours than anything else, so whatever is there, I wouldnt pay much attention to it. Inside 60 hours though since its upgrade I have been most impressed, especially under 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SWF isnt a good representation of the Orange county area.. Especially southern & western areas which have considerably higher elevations.. In terms of elevation SWF isn't that far off from the rest of Orange County. Using GIS data and doing a quick (not scientific) calulation of all the contour lines in Orange County you get an average Orange County elevation of 662 feet, which is only about 200 feet higher than Stewart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 In terms of elevation SWF isn't that far off from the rest of Orange County. Using GIS data and doing a quick (not scientific) calulation of all the contour lines in Orange County you get an average Orange County elevation of 662 feet, which is only about 200 feet higher than Stewart. Most elevation dependent events in the area usually have the 600-700' level as the deciding line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM is more of a random number generator after 60 hours than anything else, so whatever is there, I wouldnt pay much attention to it. Inside 60 hours though since its upgrade I have been most impressed, especially under 48. yea.. essentially, it is trying to develop low pressure in response to the strong and tight upper closed low at 500 mb around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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