TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The soundings that I have are excellent and do not snow any warm wedges, just an issue of surface temps. These are snow soundings in the higher elevations of NW NJ. Everything else you say I agree with. Above 1k feet right? Correct u won't see warm wedges up there but I mean might as well say its snow in the poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Don't get me wrong I think places in orange county northern fairfield could see an inch or two if things break right. Maybe more far nw jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM is quite a bit colder at the 850 level through 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 definitely moving the cold air in quicker through 36 hrs on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 definitely moving the cold air in quicker through 36 hrs on this run Its a pretty big shift with colder 850's. Wont help the city, but this run should be better for CT and Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 850's below freezing almost to NYC at 39 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah, HPN is almost snow at 42 hours. Cold down to 950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 850's below freezing almost to NYC at 39 hrs Hour 45 has the 850 line south of LI. This run should be pretty good for CT and Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 But the cooling stops there as this is a sw flow event. Should be a good thump for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hour 45 has the 850 line south of LI. This run should be pretty good for CT and Northern NJ. freezing level is 933mb at HPN Northern CT Northern Jersey up into the hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 850's below freezing from Rt. 78 north at 42 hrs. precip has not yet started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its a pretty big shift with colder 850's. Wont help the city, but this run should be better for CT and Northern NJ. 0z & 6z both provided 3-5" snowfall for Orange county... Curious to see what the 12z NAM has in store.. 0z NAM-- http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmgj.txt 6z NAM-- http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Marginally cold enough at stewart airforce base at 45 hours, 48 should be ok assuming its saturated in the snow growth, its coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is becoming a borderline event for areas N of Rt.78, still probably nothing worthwhile until about Rt.84 or so, but close enough to monitor. Another 25-50 mile shift (which is a lot at this point) shift south and it become a legit threat for some areas in the region. Looks like pure latitude dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yeah, same thing we saw last week, no crystalization at 48 hours up north, its dry in the -10 to -20C area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yep, no question about it. Soudings support the possibility of a wet-snow higher elevation event for NW NJ, north of about Rt. 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looking sweet up here in the Poconos! Liking the new 12z nam, although afriad it's too cold overall with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 might be wet snow if it comes down hard enough just north of the City. Get to Putnam and it is probably mostly snow. Another shift south and it will be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Almost for white plains at 48 hours, but look between -10 and -20, its not saturated, at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Marginally cold enough at stewart airforce base at 45 hours, 48 should be ok assuming its saturated in the snow growth, its coming out now SWF isnt a good representation of the Orange county area.. Especially southern & western areas which have considerably higher elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well, its a major improvement, that is for sure. Let's see if this is the NAM being the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SWF isnt a good representation of the Orange county area.. Especially southern & western areas which have considerably higher elevations.. Give me that call station near you def cold enough for snow across the county, i agree, your higher elevations will do well, but I am worried about your snow growth regions, like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Crazy how south this came on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ETA is also colder than the last run but not enough for the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Here you go Snywx, montgomerty airport. Snowy sounding for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think the low level cold temp profiles will improve on the models if that high is found in that position and at that strength as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Give me that call station near you def cold enough for snow across the county, i agree, your higher elevations will do well, but I am worried about your snow growth regions, like last time. Your right... Im gonna remain highly skeptical till I actually see it snowing.. lol KMGJ is slighty further west but still has crappy elevation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL, down to just above 1000mb nyc is almost isothermal at 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Your right... Im gonna remain highly skeptical till I actually see it snowing.. lol KMGJ is slighty further west but still has crappy elevation.. I wouldnt worry about elevation, the surface temps are pretty similar between stewart and montgomery, i would focus on making snow flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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