ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GEFS members are catching on a little more to the hour 84-96 storm. Several members bring precip into the area and develop a storm. 1-2 of them bring decent precip into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 CMC has some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:33 PM, Snow88 said: CMC has some snow Maybe a flurry or two, at best on that map. Looks like an inverted trough of some kind might develop for New England, but no widespread snow swath or anything. Whenever you see a .01-.1" area, it usually just means passing sprinkles/flurries. You want to be in .1"+ to know you're actually in solid batches of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro has a much weaker shortwave that doesnt dig at all. Negative run compared to last night and to 12z gfs and gefs individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This should be in the banter thread. JB is slowly losing whatever credibility he had left. On 12/22/2011 at 8:00 PM, Christopher said: JB says possible white christmas for some areas around nyc on fox business report ........yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The Euro and the GGEM look all northern stream. Very little southern stream involvement. If that's the case, than I think the trough is likely to swing through quickly, with storm development too far offshore for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Showalter indices approach zero overnight, perhaps some elevated convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS looks better than the 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:07 PM, supermeh said: 18z GFS looks better than the 12z so far. More phasing and much further west through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not enough negative tilt to the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 it gets real close to pulling something off on the 26th. We are gonna need more digging and an earlier H5 closeoff to pull it west and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Definitely need to track this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Some light precip into Jersey. Surface probably too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Cold air will again be an issue here...even if there's a storm, true cold air is lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The way every storm ticks NW I wouldn't be surprised at getting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well, the 18z GFS is interesting to say the least, can we pull off the late comeback of the models as a year ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It does look above freezing, but depending on how much above, maybe it's still some flakes. If it could deepen at the right time it could produce, but I feel it's still a long shot. Surprises do happen, though. Now if the pattern gets better around New Years, no more of these perfect timings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 huh, play 18 holes, come back, see the gfs almost pull off my storm, open beer, me happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:24 PM, TheTrials said: huh, play 18 holes, come back, see the gfs almost pull off my storm, open beer, me happy! you said no storm earlier....JB FTW-granted it's not cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 big time improvement with the ridging out west assuming the GFS is doing its usual thing of sheering out the sourthern vorts and over emphasising the northern stream, I would say we got a fish on boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:24 PM, Brian5671 said: you said no storm earlier....JB FTW-granted it's not cold enough... I did say that, but hey, I have been chirping about this one for a week or so, still a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 thats a nice inverted trough but lp is way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Gfs as is has .10" into eastern NYC and .25"+ for Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:24 PM, Brian5671 said: you said no storm earlier....JB FTW-granted it's not cold enough... and not to banter, but give me a break, he says 20 things a day, lol as I said, fish on, still gotta land it, gut it and cook it. Long way to go. and yes, still have surface warmth issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looking at soundings, plenty of room to wet bulb and its cold above, get the lift and the precip in here, we would b ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:27 PM, TheTrials said: and not to banter, but give me a break, he says 20 things a day, lol as I said, fish on, still gotta land it, gut it and cook it. Long way to go. and yes, still have surface warmth issue. cold air will be the bigger issues than storm or no storm--watch tonight's disaster and how far north the snow line ends up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:25 PM, TheTrials said: big time improvement with the ridging out west assuming the GFS is doing its usual thing of sheering out the sourthern vorts and over emphasising the northern stream, I would say we got a fish on boys! If only we had a little blocking......so much potential. THe mean ridge position is right where you want. Too bad the Euro says the GFS is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:28 PM, Brian5671 said: cold air will be the bigger issues than storm or no storm--watch tonight's disaster and how far north the snow line ends up.... well, that thing has no where really to go with the progressive flow and the ridge shifting east so quickly its ots or right on the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 10:30 PM, Alpha5 said: If only we had a little blocking......so much potential. THe mean ridge position is right where you want. Too bad the Euro says the GFS is nuts both models are trading turns sucking right now, its a fast flow with tons of vorts, there are limitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 if we did get something i dont think temps will be a huge issue. 850's are way offshore and we get 528 thicknesses thanks to the nice looking closed off trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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