earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Disco here, banter in the other thread. Craptastic pattern but we happen to have a marginally supportive cold air source present over the N Tier of the US this coming weekend. I suppose we could see some flakes fly if we time things well. But again, walking a fine line...any amplification in the height field without blocking always introduces ptype concerns. Something to track, nevertheless. Get talking dudes! And think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Uptons take THE NEXT WAVE COMES ABOUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL RATHER CONFIDENT IN THIS SYSTEM BASED ON ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD POPS TO 50% BASED ON COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES. TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT INLAND AREAS DO LOOK LIKE A P-TYPE OF MAINLY SN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE SUPPORTED (INLAND)...THOUGH TEMPS MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A GRASSY...SECONDARY ROAD TYPE OF ACCUMULATION. MAJOR UNCERTAINTY ARISES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS. THE GEFS DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...BUT ALSO DOES NOT TRULY SUPPORT THE 12Z ECMWF EITHER. THE CMC IS DRY. THE GEFS SEEMS TO BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS A SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENT. THUS FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW CHC POPS SATURDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY WITH 40 POP CENTERED FOR SUNDAY. P TYPE IS MAINLY LIQUID FOR THE COAST...BUT MAINLY SNOW NW...THOUGH WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO CONFIDENCE FOR ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z NAM at 84 hours for the Friday event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z NAM at 84 hours for the Friday event: problem there is even with the cold air seeping in you have amplification going on in the SW so the SE ridge is flexing so that is going to pretty much crush any hope of a colder solution on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 My hopes are pretty low for all of these storms. Either it will rain with temps in the 40s/50 or we won't see anything. Usually if the models show marginal solutions several days out, they get worse as we get closer, especially in a La Nina with no blocking. It's absolutely going to suck if we get rain for Xmas eve and Xmas, I would have been happy with what the models showed a few days ago, a nice seasonally cold and dry xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Definitely add me to the pessimistic camp on this. No blocking, not much of a cold air source. What cold air there is will easily be shunted out, and the storm could well ride well west of us, or well out to sea as a weak wave. Literally zero margin for error and nothing to lock cold air or a good track in. Count me out, until the horrendous pattern in the Arctic changes. And if that vortex redevelops over AK like some recent Euro runs have suggested, for us for at least a couple or few more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Can already see the 18z gfs going for a more amplified solution on the storm for xmas, probably a wetter euro solution. I think if we continue to see this trend of the second wave being the main player, we are pretty much up a boat without a paddle., save the mid-hudson valley. Even our northern burbs can't survive a coastal hugger since the deep cold just doesn't make it down here till after that storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Can already see the 18z gfs going for a more amplified solution on the storm for xmas, probably a wetter euro solution. I think if we continue to see this trend of the second wave being the main player, we are pretty much up a boat without a paddle., save the mid-hudson valley. Even our northern burbs can't survive a coastal hugger since the deep cold just doesn't make it down here till after that storm passes. Pretty shocking with a 1032 high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pretty shocking with a 1032 high up north. not really, because its not an arctic high and there is no block to keep the hp anchored and to kill the SE ridge. This is why I wanted the major wave to be AFTER xmas when the cold was better anchored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 not really, because its not an arctic high and there is no block to keep the hp anchored and to kill the SE ridge. This is why I wanted the major wave to be AFTER xmas when the cold was better anchored. that's still a possibility--models will flip flop all over the place next few days--I would not put much stock into any one solution at this juncture especially from the horrid GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 that's still a possibility--models will flip flop all over the place next few days--I would not put much stock into any one solution at this juncture especially from the horrid GFS it gets less and less probable as we get closer since so much is stacked against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 it gets less and less probable as we get closer since so much is stacked against us. tend to agree-I'm expecting nothing and hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 An encouraging run from the gfs. It focuses on the 3rd piece of energy dropping down from the NW. An awesome trough Coincides with a really nice ridge out west. The PV over SE canada keeps it from cutting. Hey, its hope atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Compare the differences with the 12z GFS. This particular solution of the 18z GFS for the post-Christmas storm is one of the most amped runs that the GFS has produced for this storm thus far, because the northern and southern pieces of energy phase more, producing a stronger storm. 18z GFS at 174 hours. Note the 1000 mb low pressure. The 12z GFS was weaker and less amplified, and was much further east than the 18z GFS was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 wow that is so close. It opened up the vort on the second storm and saved something for the third wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not a bad look there for the third wave. I'm guessing we want the 2nd wave to be a tad flatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Dougie and I were talking about the amplification yesterday and how we would be lacking it with the third wave and the 18z almost does it with stronger northern stream energy thus more digging and more phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not a bad look there for the third wave. I'm guessing we want the 2nd wave to be a tad flatter? we want it to blow up over the gulf of maine up into the 50/50 area and not a second before then we would get a better baroclynic zone that way and save some energy back into the midwest for future trough amplificaiton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 we want it to blow up over the gulf of maine up into the 50/50 area and not a second before then we would get a better baroclynic zone that way and save some energy back into the midwest for future trough amplificaiton I posted bout you in banter! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pretty shocking with a 1032 high up north. How far up north? These surface highs when south enough seem to lock or stall and do not move fast enough. Not sure that would be the case without blocking. Have seen that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Dougie and I were talking about the amplification yesterday and how we would be lacking it with the third wave and the 18z almost does it with stronger northern stream energy thus more digging and more phasing. Yeah, the ridge is still a little flat, but it's certainly more amplified, which one, helps lead to stronger, more potent northern stream energy, and allows for a bit more cold air to filter down into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the way this comes about has changed. Yesterday this was pieces of the vort in the sw, now its brand new energy in both steams. Same result, different way. The energy in the sw completely ejects on the 23rd but gets sheered out thus the weaker xmas storm then new energy comes in and phases but we get saved as the ridge moves east sadly its all fantasy but this is our best shot for something, its not the xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 How far up north? These surface highs when south enough seem to lock or stall and do not move fast enough. Not sure that would be the case without blocking. Have seen that happening. It looks like it's in a perfect spot for us but like Trials said before, it's not an arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It looks like it's in a perfect spot for us but like Trials said before, it's not an arctic high. wouldnt change much for us if it was, its transient and slide ots with zero confluence to shunt the vort to the south but this is a good thing for the storm behind it, per my above posts unfortunately, just like the euro suffers with energy out of the sw region, the gfs loves to sheer vorts into lettuce, so it could easily be mishandling the xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the way this comes about has changed. Yesterday this was pieces of the vort in the sw, now its brand new energy in both steams. Same result, different way. The energy in the sw completely ejects on the 23rd but gets sheered out thus the weaker xmas storm then new energy comes in and phases but we get saved as the ridge moves east sadly its all fantasy but this is our best shot for something, its not the xmas storm It's great that the ridge moves east, but I wish it wouldn't flatten out as it moves eastward. I know the ridge isn't "bad", but considering how horrible the Atlantic pattern is, I'm not sure we can really "ask" for anything out of our basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GEFS for the 23rd storm is warm for our area but good for SNE north. The Christmas storm is south and east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's great that the ridge moves east, but I wish it wouldn't flatten out as it moves eastward. I know the ridge isn't "bad", but considering how horrible the Atlantic pattern is, I'm not sure we can really "ask" for anything out of our basin. the most we can get is that xmas wave to blow up into a 50/50, that will help a little the rest depends on what comes out of the two streams. Cross ur fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is a nice h5 setup, no doubt about it. Lets hope the GFS is not totally out to lunch here. The ridge position is ideal given the pattern surrounding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 wow i mean the gfs comes one isobar short of closing off the H5 vort over the upper midwest would have created a true weenie run. Sigh, so far away. Back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs seems to have lost all that northern stream energy that made the 18z gfs so intruiging. Without it, there simply is not bite to the trough. figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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