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December 24th - March 26th White Potential Discussion/OBS


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JBs read on the 12z

"The GFS is correcting west as it sees the energy coming out. The piece left behind is quite weak and this phased situation aloft is what I think will happen. The development of precip north into the strong height falls will come with time. Still the big idea here is the meteorology, which I am hoping you can now see.. My point here is that if the southern branch kicks out like that, the surface map will respond a stronger inverted trough in the Ohio valley, a stronger low Christmas night along the mid atlantic coast that will head northeast. Its another typical la nina problem.. DC is not likely to see a flake, but Boston and se New England could see a half of foot of snow. This IS NOT in the category of last years storm, but is more a system that shows you how the atmosphere can work, and that models are virtual, not real, until we see what happens.

The euro holds the energy back, but that is something it loves to do. My take is the GFS is catching on to what should happen with the EPO the way it is. So I like its upper air evolution, but feel there will be light snows Christmas day across NJ, eastern Pa and into New York, heavier later in the day or at night in southern New england. And naturally that kind of max coming southeast will produce snows in the lakes"

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It's buried somewhere on this page.. I happened to see him comment on FB...totally threw water on their fires by talking about the 12z Euro.

Just looking at who posts in there (atown, metfan, Garrett Bastardi) it's pretty damn awful.

wow, that page, yikes.

i thought you were referring to accu's forums.

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Looks like the surface low is a little too far off shore. Precip looks to barely catch the coast from Massachusetts northward.

Yeah kind of unphased more northern stream dominated event. Kind of stronger ninaish in the sense tougher to get phased systems and what lows there are don't exactly scream nor'easter, nor'easter. Ironically given this winter so far and last winter I would switch the enso ssta values based on what is or is not occurring so far.

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The latest from JB

"Then the southern low will be forced to correct north to where the front that is still over the Ohio valley to northern new england is. You see there are two fronts right now.. the models love to jump on the subtropical front, but the true development will be further north. One may only see an inverted trough for instance Sunday when we are at 72 hours but the real development will start near the va capes... not as far south as the model has. off South Carolina. So precip would break out further north. Believe me, lower the pressure 3-5 mb over Kentucky and have a coastal trough waiting and that upper air will lead to rapid development with the surface low early Monday morning bombing out along the gulf stream east of Delaware bay And snow would fill in rapidly Christmas night from the Delmarva into southeast NY. the quickness of the system will prevent the major event, it would be a nice way to wrap up Christmas, until one got out to se New England. But that digging and phasing is not going to let people off with nothing north of the max track.

The euro has trouble releasing troughs in the southwest, but truly the key i has been and always will be getting that energy to come out and combine, rather than hang back and compete. Its not a done deal by any means, but now I think some of you are more sympathetic to my methods as to why I simply dont throw in the towel. The weather is much to majestic to underestimate what it can do, and no model ( or man.. including me of course) knows absolutely what the future will bring. One can list their reasons, and model consensus is a good tool, but should never be the final word"

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The Latest/Last on this "potential" from JB this AM

"The model support I got out of the GFS, which followed my ideas, has capitulated. Without the southern branch coming out, the result is a trough with no more than some lake effect snows Saturday night into Sunday in the lakes and western pa and New York, and some flurries further southeast . But you can see as well as I, that there is now complete abandonment of my ideas by modeling. However, I will be waiting till I see what this looks like later today or tonight to make sure. I realize by the time I get to the party, the cops have arrived and the merriment is over, but that is how I roll in situations I deem tricky"

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The Latest/Last on this "potential" from JB this AM

"The model support I got out of the GFS, which followed my ideas, has capitulated. Without the southern branch coming out, the result is a trough with no more than some lake effect snows Saturday night into Sunday in the lakes and western pa and New York, and some flurries further southeast . But you can see as well as I, that there is now complete abandonment of my ideas by modeling. However, I will be waiting till I see what this looks like later today or tonight to make sure. I realize by the time I get to the party, the cops have arrived and the merriment is over, but that is how I roll in situations I deem tricky"

:lol:

gotta love JB...he's the captain of the sinking ship...he'll go down with it. for better or for worse.

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