Feb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Of course having the GFS south at this point is probably a good thing, not having cold air is not however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That is the million $ question....JBs map had the 1" line at least 30 miles W of I95 and I would bet someone with elevation (+850ft) will eek out an official "White Christmas" Paul, The trucks are feverishly working to add 150 feet in elevation for you. We honestly don't see many modeling solutions that forecast a precipitation event in the medium range (within 7 days) and take away the punch bowl with a southeast/offshore solution. I know this happened the weekend before the boxing day blizzard last winter, but I can't recall too many other recent examples. Of course for I95ers, I'd win the battle and lose the war while driving in 37F and rain on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Paul, The trucks are feverishly working to add 150 feet in elevation for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That's a classic!! I am probably generous with my 850ft....probably need twice that....think the Pocono Grill is the spot to be!! Paul, The trucks are feverishly working to add 150 feet in elevation for you. We honestly don't see many modeling solutions that forecast a precipitation event in the medium range (within 7 days) and take away the punch bowl with a southeast/offshore solution. I know this happened the weekend before the boxing day blizzard last winter, but I can't recall too many other recent examples. Of course for I95ers, I'd win the battle and lose the war while driving in 37F and rain on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What really ticks me off is when these Bastardi type forecasts and some others say N&W of the big cities. How would they feel if I would say this same statement for a forecast for State College or Raleigh NC? Over two million people live in Eastern PA (NW of Philly) -- far more than then in the previously mentioned cities. This includes the Montgomery,Chester and Bucks Counties, Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, Reading and even portions of Lancaster area. Too many people live in these areas now to not provide a pinpoint forecast for snow. Bear Creek, Spring Mt. and Blue Mt. ski resorts are prime examples who rely on these forecasts. To say NW of Philly is an indication that the forecaster has really no idea where it will snow for eastern PA in IMHO. More emphasis needs to be made using KABE as the snow line--- not Philly especially in a suburban environment where traffic conditions (eg 422, 476,78, 309 and 78) are an issue and not SEPTA rail lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 EC still says "no". Further north precip gets with the wave is about Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think JB is close to throwing in the towel...but he still can see the way "Notice how the northern plains trough is AIMED SOUTH and the energy in the south is coming out. This is the crucial aspect.. does the southern energy come out. You have to understand that with x amount of energy on the field, it takes very little for the model to miss the details here and the result to go right back where it was. These are global models and they are impressed with large scale systems. We do know the northern branch is AIMED for the northeast Christmas afternoon and Monday, but by keeping the southern energy back there is a) competition in the very area you look for phasing and obviously no phasing. But what happens is the southern energy is coming out more. Then a) there at height falls headed right for where the northern branch is pointed and there is phasing. Its a double whammy. All it takes is a 60-80 meter error, a pittance in the southern branch in a global model and everyone is scratching there heads saying what happened. You see, right now, the models have the exactly look of two systems repelling each other, but it wont take much to go back. Simply aim the northern branch more south and then kick the southern branch out more, and we are back. The other modeling though, to be fair is not seeing that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A 60-80m error over land is a pittance??? NWP people would have a field day with that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A 60-80m error over land is a pittance??? NWP people would have a field day with that comment. Good thing they don't read his column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I saw weenies on Henry Margusity's Facebook page salivating over the 0z GFS, saying it's much closer to a storm. Then I looked at it and had no clue what they were talking about, it isn't even remotely close to a snowy solution for anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I saw weenies on Henry Margusity's Facebook page salivating over the 0z GFS, saying it's much closer to a storm. Then I looked at it and had no clue what they were talking about, it isn't even remotely close to a snowy solution for anybody. That's what you get for being on Henry's fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 0Z EC was further north... but still too far south for most people in this thread (i.e., southern Delaware). ANd I think that was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 0Z EC was further north... but still too far south for most people in this thread (i.e., southern Delaware). ANd I think that was rain. Yeah...unless the precip shield gets into the Poconos it's gon' rain for anyone with this system I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah...unless the precip shield gets into the Poconos it's gon' rain for anyone with this system I would think. i dunno, the thicknesses are 540 and below, surface temps are in the 30s...issue was 850s atleast for the city...but, bring a storm further north and you bring the warmth to. You would need a glancing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i dunno, the thicknesses are 540 and below, surface temps are in the 30s...issue was 850s atleast for the city...but, bring a storm further north and you bring the warmth to. You would need a glancing blow that's what I was thinking...even though thicknesses are "favorable" in the 0z a north track is going to boost those a bit over 540 (I would think). Would need this to bomb out a bit to *weenie phrase incoming* self-generate cold air to get the rain over to snow. would be interesting to see how much further north this gets...wouldn't surprise me to see precip into Philly on Christmas Day...probably would be a light rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 JBs latest thoughts...for those interested he will be on Fox News today at 2:30pm. (He indicates he will still talk about why it may snow in the northeast on Christmas) He also mentions the 3 to 6" of snow late tonight into tomorrow for a 75 mile line either side of Erie PA to Boston MA "But look I understand what ALL of you see. I am trying to get you to understand that if you have x amount of energy available and its comes out a certain way, there is going to be a storm. For instance one cant help but notice the deviation from normal over the southwest in 36 hours. Now look close at this okay, cause I want you to understand why I WILL NOT ABANDON THE IDEA OF THE SNOW THREAT FOR CHRISTMAS AND MONDAY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A NEGATIVE EPO!! the trough east of Hawaii means the system in the southwest should come out.. The model cant figure out how to handle this. Should it suddenly lets say tomorrow say. heh alot of this is coming out, then you have a strong northern branch digging right at a system that heads for the mid atlantic states. But where do you think that is going to go 36 hours later, that nice tight bundle of cold aloft suddenly is destroyed in a strung out mess?? By doing this, it pumps the ridge to the east and prevents the storm But suppose its a bit faster and stronger.. humor me, cause we all know that its never happened before.. that 4 days after a model has nothing in New York City, it snows. That never happens. Its never wrong. Now what if you have this upper map for Christmas night. Notice the weak system back over the southwest, because the energy came out and is phasing. Then its a matter of feedback. The Euro ensembles and operational are further west now than yesterday.It takes 30-60 meters more energy, 12-24 hours faster and the northern branch swings in. The GFS is notorious for being too progressive.. Obviously the further northeast you live the better the chance here, but there is a method to my madness, Think of it this way.. suppose tomorrows 12z run catches on and phases the trough ( on a Friday.. like last year) Will we see the same thing.. oh its an error in the model? This IS NOT LAST YEAR but what always hold is understanding this a virtual representation not etched in stone. In the majesty of the whole pattern, it takes very little to flip these things around.. aim a jet 100 miles further west 6 hours later in the northern branch, kick a system out faster in the southern branch.. So if tomorrow, not even today, tomorrow I have to change my forecast it will be once. I would venture to say that if it is pulled in closer, then some of the other folks that have been roundly blasting me as they always do in situations like this, and if I am right, shut up for a few days ( If I am wrong of course its a constant hammer) will have had to change their ideas a bunch of times. That does not so much bother me, the hammering and trivial pursuit of character assassination as does the idea that like so many people involved in the climate and weather fight today, they apparently believe that the model is the final word, and the latest is the greatest. So yes I see all the reasons that I may indeed be wrong, but its not because I am delusional or want to see it snow. It simply has to do with all the times I have seen this and understand that it does not take much to change things in what you might think is a dramatic model flip, but in the world of weather given how extensive the atmosphere is, its not much at all!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My forecast from this morning's weather briefing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 JBs latest thoughts...for those interested he will be on Fox News today at 2:30pm. (He indicates he will still talk about why it may snow in the northeast on Christmas) He also mentions the 3 to 6" of snow late tonight into tomorrow for a 75 mile line either side of Erie PA to Boston MA "But look I understand what ALL of you see. I am trying to get you to understand that if you have x amount of energy available and its comes out a certain way, there is going to be a storm. For instance one cant help but notice the deviation from normal over the southwest in 36 hours. Now look close at this okay, cause I want you to understand why I WILL NOT ABANDON THE IDEA OF THE SNOW THREAT FOR CHRISTMAS AND MONDAY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A NEGATIVE EPO!! the trough east of Hawaii means the system in the southwest should come out.. The model cant figure out how to handle this. Should it suddenly lets say tomorrow say. heh alot of this is coming out, then you have a strong northern branch digging right at a system that heads for the mid atlantic states. But where do you think that is going to go 36 hours later, that nice tight bundle of cold aloft suddenly is destroyed in a strung out mess?? By doing this, it pumps the ridge to the east and prevents the storm But suppose its a bit faster and stronger.. humor me, cause we all know that its never happened before.. that 4 days after a model has nothing in New York City, it snows. That never happens. Its never wrong. Now what if you have this upper map for Christmas night. Notice the weak system back over the southwest, because the energy came out and is phasing. Then its a matter of feedback. The Euro ensembles and operational are further west now than yesterday.It takes 30-60 meters more energy, 12-24 hours faster and the northern branch swings in. The GFS is notorious for being too progressive.. Obviously the further northeast you live the better the chance here, but there is a method to my madness, Think of it this way.. suppose tomorrows 12z run catches on and phases the trough ( on a Friday.. like last year) Will we see the same thing.. oh its an error in the model? This IS NOT LAST YEAR but what always hold is understanding this a virtual representation not etched in stone. In the majesty of the whole pattern, it takes very little to flip these things around.. aim a jet 100 miles further west 6 hours later in the northern branch, kick a system out faster in the southern branch.. So if tomorrow, not even today, tomorrow I have to change my forecast it will be once. I would venture to say that if it is pulled in closer, then some of the other folks that have been roundly blasting me as they always do in situations like this, and if I am right, shut up for a few days ( If I am wrong of course its a constant hammer) will have had to change their ideas a bunch of times. That does not so much bother me, the hammering and trivial pursuit of character assassination as does the idea that like so many people involved in the climate and weather fight today, they apparently believe that the model is the final word, and the latest is the greatest. So yes I see all the reasons that I may indeed be wrong, but its not because I am delusional or want to see it snow. It simply has to do with all the times I have seen this and understand that it does not take much to change things in what you might think is a dramatic model flip, but in the world of weather given how extensive the atmosphere is, its not much at all!" I'll give him a lot of credit, that is a pretty good write up. He does make a few valid points here and there just to how volatile things could be and to not just believe the model is the final word. Thank you for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My forecast from this morning's weather briefing... Priceless. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My forecast from this morning's weather briefing... lol...too bad there isn't a hurricane coming up the coast to add to the call lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 lol...too bad there isn't a hurricane coming up the coast to add to the call lol. I think I did use it prior to Irene coming up the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 By the way my Wxsim module does indeed have a White Christmas in it's current forecast. It has heavy frost forecasted for the early AM of Christmas Day! So white it will be....just not as white as Christmas 2009!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Since I'm new to the area I found this really interesting: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/xmasclimate.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Looks like JB might end up right for areas NE of here. The 12Z GFS is trying for something on Monday but it looks a little to late for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like the surface low is a little too far off shore. Precip looks to barely catch the coast from Massachusetts northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like the surface low is a little too far off shore. Precip looks to barely catch the coast from Massachusetts northward. Agreed though it's the closest the GFS has been to showing snow for the east coast. I'm convinced we have no hope because even if it came close enough i doubt it would be anything other then rain. It also could be the GFS just getting a clue for the Monday system. I think SNE is definitely in the game for that storm. Maybe the Euro will show something later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 many of the gfs ens members keep it interesting with the possibility of some lgt snow sun night into mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Since I'm new to the area I found this really interesting: http://www.erh.noaa....masclimate.html assuming it doesn't snow it'll be the first christmas & christmas eve since 2007 without snow on ground or at least falling at some point (trace or more) during either day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Monday certainly does look interesting according to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Monday certainly does look interesting according to the 12z GFS. How so? Do you mean all the precip off-shore and the possibility that it will reach coastal areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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