tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Oh, so I guess I should stop hope for the entire winter, Tom. No more tracking, winter over!! I mean, geez. Why not expect the worst but hope for a chance. i didnt say to give up. Im just being realistic. You have an antecedent cold airmass, which isnt cold in general. You have a high retreating with a surface wind coming off the torched ocean. Thicknesses are torched. Im not saying its not going to snow on christmas. Im just saying, i dont believe those snow maps on this run of the euro. I could see start as some mix maybe, but thats it. Also, whats going to cause this to be snow, i mean .25-.5 qpf over a 6hr period isn't really thumping to bring down cold air from above. When the really heavy precip does come in the 850 line is already up by ny border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i didnt say to give up. Im just being realistic. You have an antecedent cold airmass, which isnt cold in general. You have a high retreating with a surface wind coming off the torched ocean. Thicknesses are torched. Im not saying its not going to snow. Im just saying, i dont believe those snow maps on this run of the euro. Also, whats going to cause this to be snow, i mean .25-.5 qpf over a 6hr period isn't really thumping to bring down cold air from above. When the really heavy precip does come in the 850 line is already up by ny border. Pretty much agree with everything here. Good analysis, Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 2 meter temperatures never get above the 30-35 range on the 12 Z ECM ...talking about locations that would be considered the NW burbs (far) they do at 00z (7 PM XMAS day) go into the 35-40 range from what appears to be just south of the ABE region...otherwise the far burbs stay in that 30-35 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 2 meter temperatures never get above the 30-35 range on the 12 Z ECM ...talking about locations that would be considered the NW burbs (far) they do at 00z (7 PM XMAS day) go into the 35-40 range from what appears to be just south of the ABE region...otherwise the far burbs stay in that 30-35 range i know you get soundings from accuwx if i recall, but my vista maps dont show freezing temps til ne pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 2 meter temperatures never get above the 30-35 range on the 12 Z ECM ...talking about locations that would be considered the NW burbs (far) they do at 00z (7 PM XMAS day) go into the 35-40 range from what appears to be just south of the ABE region...otherwise the far burbs stay in that 30-35 range they are above freezing though at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i know you get soundings from accuwx if i recall, but my vista maps dont show freezing temps til ne pa They are in the 32-34 range at ABE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 PBP aka Tombo style: 120 - Light precip just moving in, surface frz line Poconos and far NW NJ, 925 mb frz line in Delmarva, 850 mb frz line Delmarva... 126 - Heavy precip moving in, surface frz line Catskills and central PA, 925 mb frz line THV - TTN - JFK, 850 mb frz line MDT - TTN - MJX... 132 - Heavy precip during previous 6 hours everywhere, surface frz line unchanged, 925 mb frz line Poconos and far NW NJ, 850 mb frz line Poconos. So, per EC, it could start as snow in many places away from the coast, but it changes to rain everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 PBP aka Tombo style: 120 - Light precip just moving in, surface frz line Poconos and far NW NJ, 925 mb frz line in Delmarva, 850 mb frz line Delmarva... 126 - Heavy precip moving in, surface frz line Catskills and central PA, 925 mb frz line THV - TTN - JFK, 850 mb frz line MDT - TTN - MJX... 132 - Heavy precip during previous 6 hours everywhere, surface frz line unchanged, 925 mb frz line Poconos and far NW NJ, 850 mb frz line Poconos. So, per EC, it could start as snow in many places away from the coast, but it changes to rain everywhere. do you have surface numbers? It could be an ordeal its snowing at 34-35 but not accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Latest from JB on 12Z (sure looks like an elevation snow event to me) "don't believe the 12z run in regards to the weekend storm. If it's right, it will be the first time it hasn't done this (suppress a day 4-7 eastern system) that I can remember. The problems are legion with this model and well known in two streams. To review, it tries to destroy the southern energy by handing it off to the northern branch in front. As it is, the ensembles are digging the trough through the Northeast Sunday and Monday, and all you have to understand is that if the southern branch it kills is 60-100 meters stronger coming through (which it is more likely than not to be), then you have the solution I favor, which is more like the European" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yea i know your thoughts... i just cant see the 4-8 from that map with those thicknesses...that just screams bl issues from hellz I haven't seen the forecast soundings yet (can't post anything on them from the current run even if I did), but once thicknesses get north of 546 I start getting concerned (paging Rib, paging Rib) about some warm layer above 850mb and sleet occurring. This looks like one of those cases of the GFS losing the storm at day 5, I'd be more in the can ggem and euro camp than the gfs at this point. I don't know what algorithms are used for the wunderground snow maps either. Not saying the run is gospel, but based on the run "as is" places "north and west" would get accumulating snow out of this on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I haven't seen the forecast soundings yet (can't post anything on them from the current run even if I did), but once thicknesses get north of 546 I start getting concerned (paging Rib, paging Rib) about some warm layer above 850mb and sleet occurring. This looks like one of those cases of the GFS losing the storm at day 5, I'd be more in the can ggem and euro camp than the gfs at this point. I don't know what algorithms are used for the wunderground snow maps either. Not saying the run is gospel, but based on the run "as is" places "north and west" would get accumulating snow out of this on the front end. i would love to see a skew t off the euro...its gotta be pretty isothermal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z euro looks like its going to the ggems kind of storm. Holding back the energy longer in the sw, thus allowing the high to scoot east, pumping the se ridge...basically rain for everyone And this is still a bias of the Euro I believe. Just something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 And this is still a bias of the Euro I believe. Just something to think about. Dtk from NCEP I believe posted that an upgrade they did was suppose to have corrected this bias. Of course that doesn't mean an ereror in this direction can't still occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Dtk from NCEP I believe posted that an upgrade they did was suppose to have corrected this bias. Of course that doesn't mean an ereror in this direction can't still occur. Ahh gotcha! Good to know. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i would love to see a skew t off the euro...its gotta be pretty isothermal We only see standard level soundings from the Euro, but anytime an 850mb low or focus of flow is west of you, there is trouble. One of my co-workers said, well if its snowing first thing in the morning, what we should do is open the curtains and smile, then quickly close the curtains and don't look outside the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 We only see standard level soundings from the Euro, but anytime an 850mb low or focus of flow is west of you, there is trouble. One of my co-workers said, well if its snowing first thing in the morning, what we should do is open the curtains and smile, then quickly close the curtains and don't look outside the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not sure I fully agree with the euro ukemt yet models have recently been too slow with shortwaves which is a problem we have seen with many storm systems recently. but either way even if this does speed up temperatures are going to be an issue even with the best possible track. After all models have been flip flopping every run. will see if the 00z euro even stays the same. last week it had the current system going through Wisconsin and even the Dakotas one run. I guess we were due for a wet Christmas after the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 These multiple wave type "events" are the ones most likely to deliver in this pattern. If I were a betting man...I would bet on a White Christmas for many folks N and West of I476 and North of 76 (turnpike) in PA. I think JBs map from a couple days ago with his 1" line and N and W will be pretty close (give or take 50 miles....me thinks it will be somewhat NW of my backyard...Tom's?). No doubt models will struggle with this one right up till T-24 but heck at least we have something of interest for those of the winter wx persuasion. It really is funny how folks in the I95 corridor have lost perspective on what normal is.....as snow before Christmas is not commonplace. I've lived in Berks Co. my whole life, I am 40 years old, and I concur. Heck, my favorite winter ever, (I think you had said it was yours also) 93-94, didn't really start until January either. I remember it finally got cold around Christmas, started with a some ice/sleet storms, and didn't have decent snow until sometime in early January.....but once it started it didn't stop. My childhood in the 80's saw very few winters with snow in December also.......I think 83-84 I had some snow on the ground at Christmas, and it was REALLY cold. 95-96 was the first winter I remember as having a good December here, about 20" IMBY. So before the 2000's, I remember TWO good Decembers! About the upcoming storm......I have a good feeling about getting a few sloppy inches up on my hill. Heck, today's storm, the snow is melting not far over my head. (the rain drops have many fragments of just melted ice in them.) In these marginal type of setups we are getting on the 25th.....I usually make out decently on them. (where everything is right.....except the air isn't really that cold.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z GFS holds serve on no major rain or snow storm for Christmas day something has to give either no storm or storm we shall continue to the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't think anyone has seen a run with anything "major"....now whether or not anyone gets some wet snow and a White Christmas...that remains a possibility - especially for those with some elevation and distance from the coastal plain. 18z GFS holds serve on no major rain or snow storm for Christmas day something has to give either no storm or storm we shall continue to the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB just tweeted "European all aboard with Christmas day storm up east coast. My map idea from yesterday on this still holds!" "Look for GFS to start its trend toward Euro and its ensembles. GFS also too far south and too cold with thur into fri storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB just tweeted "European all aboard with Christmas day storm up east coast. My map idea from yesterday on this still holds!" "Look for GFS to start its trend toward Euro and its ensembles. GFS also too far south and too cold with thur into fri storm" lol how is it all aboard? his snow map has snow all the way to the coast which the euro doesn't show. Heck it barely has snow getting into the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I don't think anyone has seen a run with anything "major"....now whether or not anyone gets some wet snow and a White Christmas...that remains a possibility - especially for those with some elevation and distance from the coastal plain. I am actually more interested weather or not there will even be a storm at this point. if there is chances are it will not go out to sea. almost every 18z GFS ensemble says no rain storm some have showers 1 has snow for Delaware. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Anyone know what the euro ensembles have? They have been very accurate lately from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Tom His overall idea (although he did say it is possible for snow to the coast) is 1" or more to the NW of the big cities...do you agree with his thinking of the inevtable trend of the GFS. Keep in mind JB has never said this is a major event...only 1 to 3" of wet snow N and W of the big cities. Paul lol how is it all aboard? his snow map has snow all the way to the coast which the euro doesn't show. Heck it barely has snow getting into the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS...probably not the model of choice for these type of events. Watch as future runs move it more in line with EC I am actually more interested weather or not there will even be a storm at this point. if there is chances are it will not go out to sea. almost every 18z GFS ensemble says no rain storm some have showers 1 has snow for Delaware. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Anyone know what the euro ensembles have? They have been very accurate lately from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Tom His overall idea (although he did say it is possible for snow to the coast) is 1" or more to the NW of the big cities...do you agree with his thinking of the inevtable trend of the GFS. Keep in mind JB has never said this is a major event...only 1 to 3" of wet snow N and W of the big cities. Paul i can see that paul. Never really saw his accum map or thoughts on it just saw the map where he outlines where it will snow with each wave. He is right on the gfs. We have all seen it where it loses the storm then brings it back. Yours and my area should see something unless this thing really warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Guess its not hard to figure out why there haven't been any new posts in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Guess its not hard to figure out why there haven't been any new posts in this thread... Burp run on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Burp run on the Euro? Is it a burp, or a correction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6Z GFS now trying to show the storm as it has made major changes on the H5 would give this event till tonight's 00z run if all models are no storm by then it probably is over. another change like the 6z GFS made on the 12z run and it will be showing a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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