Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 True...they nailed Snowtober though. (I tend to agree that it'll be more wet than white with Christmas low but I was just trollin' ya...) That was the 36 hr before the event run. I was comparing some of the thermal fields with the wunderground output, it does seem a tad generous with the snow. It should be snowing this morning here based on a run a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can't say I'm that optimistic....think I would need about another 700 ft to make much of a difference. But what do I know...I leave it to the true professionals like you to bring clarity to the weenie masses! I hope you and the family have a great holiday! Paul Paul, Every foot of elevation will help (and appears needed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can't say I'm that optimistic....think I would need about another 700 ft to make much of a difference. But what do I know...I leave it to the true professionals like you to bring clarity to the weenie masses! I hope you and the family have a great holiday! Paul Thank-you Paul and I hope its a great holiday for you and your family also. Thank-you for all the observations you post here and e-mail to us at the office. It has given us a better understanding of Chester County weather and hope has helped us make better forecasts for your county and area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thanks for the info. Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have said it before but I truly believe we have the best NWSFO in the country. I kind of liken you and the team like the Phillies of the National League. I may quote other sources but I still know where to go for the best local info!! Thanks for all you and the team do in the Mt Holly office! Paul Thank-you Paul and I hope its a great holiday for you and your family also. Thank-you for all the observations you post here and e-mail to us at the office. It has given us a better understanding of Chester County weather and hope has helped us make better forecasts for your county and area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z euro looks like its going to the ggems kind of storm. Holding back the energy longer in the sw, thus allowing the high to scoot east, pumping the se ridge...basically rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 merry christmas, 30s and rain per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 merry christmas, 30s and rain per euro Would rather nothing at all then this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 merry christmas, 30s and rain per euro Eh, we're not too far away on this run of the Euro... but I'd think it would trend NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is the Euro even rain back here in the SRV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is the Euro even rain back here in the SRV? yes, the thicknesses are horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 maybe some snow showers on mon and tues as the vort tracks over us....oooooo ahhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yes, the thicknesses are horrible Wow..okay thanks Tombo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wow..okay thanks Tombo! yea the bl is just wretched...for instance the 850s are below the m/d line but the thicknesses are 546-549 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This pattern is just unreal. So frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 was just going to post this...just shows how awful those snow maps are...no way thats 3-6 inches of snow with thicknesses of 546-550, and temps above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 was just going to post this...just shows how awful those snow maps are...no way thats 3-6 inches of snow with thicknesses of 546-550, and temps above freezing We all know euro thicknesses are usually to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 was just going to post this...just shows how awful those snow maps are...no way thats 3-6 inches of snow with thicknesses of 546-550, and temps above freezing I don't know what wunderground uses, but Earthsat takes the raw model output and shows a 4-8" swath in the NW burbs. The Earthsat maps have been pretty spot on for recent systems. All that said, I expect it to head back NW if it is wrapped up or head OTS like the GFS if it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Remember it's that cold even with the high retreating, with a thump at the beginning and snow at the end. So there is room for this to trend better. Of course in this pattern, I have to not get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Remember it's that cold even with the high retreating, with a thump at the beginning and snow at the end. So there is room for this to trend better. Of course in this pattern, I have to not get my hopes up. It sounds like your hopes are already up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know what wunderground uses, but Earthsat takes the raw model output and shows a 4-8" swath in the NW burbs. The Earthsat maps have been pretty spot on for recent systems. All that said, I expect it to head back NW if it is wrapped up or head OTS like the GFS if it's not. even with thicknesses that warm? A high sliding off the coast to, so the wind component has to be off the ocean. before any real precip comes in the 546 thickness is on the m/d line then shoots north from there on the later panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It sounds like your hopes are already up. Just in a something to track way. There's a small window of opportunity. How can you think this has a high percentage in the pattern we are in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It sounds like your is already up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 even with thicknesses that warm? A high sliding off the coast to, so the wind component has to be off the ocean. before any real precip comes in the 546 thickness is on the m/d line then shoots north from there on the later panel. You know what I think is going to happen, I'm just saying the raw output suggests snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You know what I think is going to happen, I'm just saying the raw output suggests snow yea i know your thoughts... i just cant see the 4-8 from that map with those thicknesses...that just screams bl issues from hellz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 even with thicknesses that warm? A high sliding off the coast to, so the wind component has to be off the ocean. before any real precip comes in the 546 thickness is on the m/d line then shoots north from there on the later panel. I'd be curious to know what the surface temps are at the onset...you'd have to have a helluva thump to overcome 546 thickness, even in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Oh, so I guess I should stop hope for the entire winter, Tom. No more tracking, winter over!! I mean, geez. Why not expect the worst but hope for a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yea i know your thoughts... i just cant see the 4-8 from that map with those thicknesses...that just screams bl issues from hellz Guesstimating, the sfc is about 35 degrees and the 850 0C line is right over PHL... I dunno either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z euro looks like its going to the ggems kind of storm. Holding back the energy longer in the sw, thus allowing the high to scoot east, pumping the se ridge...basically rain for everyone Funniest part is the GFS shows nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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