Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Its time to track this possible event here and keep med/long range thread less cluttered. Adam can make the banter thread once this one goes down hill due to the pending suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 12Z GFS, wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12Z GFS, wet Sure is then it just misses us with a storm the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 stolen from or friend in NY metro forum, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Sure is then it just misses us with a storm the day after Christmas. imho, that storm has the better potential as the baroclinic zone will be shifted offshore. Thus allowing more cold air to filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah.. the 12z GFS makes the 1st wave dominant, taking the h5 entity torwards the lake, pumping the SE ridge and warm air even up to the poconos/central PA. There's soo many systems, i'm confused as to which one falls within the date!! ( i guess thats 12/22).. hr 96 has a weak wave approx central VA tracking to the DElmarva and off shore (1020mb low?).. precip gets into philly and NYC metro, but the 850's during the height of the storm are roughly allentown to NYC. (ps, as im writing this, the NCEP SITE is really getting under my skin..)Nice HP placement to the north though, about as good as you'll ever see one..1035mb.. but surface 0 line is riding the PA/NY border.. then 117-129 has precip over the mid atl, no surface reflection till about 132 (xmas morning) 1016mb LP, precip and freezzing line back towards central PA and NY.. cold rain for us.. then 160-180 is, the 1012mb low 100-200 miles offshore of hatteras.. plenty cold air from the previous system, but the BZ is too far offshore. Just breaking down the run, not a forecast. thats a lot to track. we'll say 3 waves.? I believe the euro only had 2 last night. So we'll have to see where the EURO goes with this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not only imperative that we have a cold High in place (duh), but also that it's in the right place. A High centered over Maine or Newfoundland will bring easterly flow in at the surface, and with the ocean still sitting at 50F or above, that spells trouble for everyone east of the fall line. Notice on last night's Euro we start out with a good (dare I say classic?) High placement... But then, since we don't have any blocking, it slides on east, and we get into ENE flow at 144... until the surface Low tightens up at 150 and drives the winds back around to the NE (off the land rather than the ocean for most people). In that respect it's a definite thread-the-needle. I'm sure you can tell I'm not too excited, but given the teleconnectors (+NAO, +AO, a +PNA whose ridge axis is not ideal) I'm really not excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not only imperative that we have a cold High in place (duh), but also that it's in the right place. A High centered over Maine or Newfoundland will bring easterly flow in at the surface, and with the ocean still sitting at 50F or above, that spells trouble for everyone east of the fall line. Notice on last night's Euro we start out with a good (dare I say classic?) High placement... But then, since we don't have any blocking, it slides on east, and we get into ENE flow at 144.until the surface Low tightens up at 150 and drives the winds back around to the NE (off the land rather than the ocean for most people). In that respect it's a definite thread-the-needle. I'm sure you can tell I'm not too excited, but given the teleconnectors (+NAO, +AO, a +PNA whose ridge axis is not ideal) I'm really not excited about this one. what i love is that you have a 1037 high in a good spot, and their is no cold air to be found lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 what i love is that you have a 1037 high in a good spot, and their is no cold air to be found lolz Wonderful, isn't it? I guess that's what we get with the the northern stream being shut off so far this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro snow at the "height" of the event for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 These multiple wave type "events" are the ones most likely to deliver in this pattern. If I were a betting man...I would bet on a White Christmas for many folks N and West of I476 and North of 76 (turnpike) in PA. I think JBs map from a couple days ago with his 1" line and N and W will be pretty close (give or take 50 miles....me thinks it will be somewhat NW of my backyard...Tom's?). No doubt models will struggle with this one right up till T-24 but heck at least we have something of interest for those of the winter wx persuasion. It really is funny how folks in the I95 corridor have lost perspective on what normal is.....as snow before Christmas is not commonplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 These multiple wave type "events" are the ones most likely to deliver in this pattern. If I were a betting man...I would bet on a White Christmas for many folks N and West of I476 and North of 76 (turnpike) in PA. I think JBs map from a couple days ago with his 1" line and N and W will be pretty close (give or take 50 miles....me thinks it will be somewhat NW of my backyard...Tom's?). No doubt models will struggle with this one right up till T-24 but heck at least we have something of interest for those of the winter wx persuasion. It really is funny how folks in the I95 corridor have lost perspective on what normal is.....as snow before Christmas is not commonplace. Great post. I can remember 1987 when we did not see a big storm until late January and it turned out to be a great winter snow wise. These past few years have really spoiled us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 While I would love to see some snow for Christmas (or at least a real chance at some point in December), I would rather have the pattern be more conducive in Jan/Feb than December or March. Just simple climo. Not sure if we'll actually get a pattern flip this winter but if if we do I'm glad it'll come mid-Jan to Feb instead of late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 While I would love to see some snow for Christmas (or at least a real chance at some point in December), I would rather have the pattern be more conducive in Jan/Feb than December or March. Just simple climo. Not sure if we'll actually get a pattern flip this winter but if if we do I'm glad it'll come mid-Jan to Feb instead of late fall. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 It really is funny how folks in the I95 corridor have lost perspective on what normal is.....as snow before Christmas is not commonplace. Not all of us lost perspective , just the NY metro folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Words of wisdom Andy! Not all of us lost perspective , just the NY metro folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0Z 12/20 EC says no snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0Z 12/20 EC says no snow for anyone. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.34279&lon=-75.48706&zoom=7&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=snow_3hr&mm.hour=141&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=0&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0 Naso fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 http://www.wundergro...&stormreports=0 Naso fast. I don't think these EC snow maps work very well. They were way overdone for that event a couple weeks ago... the one where the EC maps had snow all the way down to I-95 and it only traced way up in Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't think these EC snow maps work very well. They were way overdone for that event a couple weeks ago... the one where the EC maps had snow all the way down to I-95 and it only traced way up in Allentown. True...they nailed Snowtober though. (I tend to agree that it'll be more wet than white with Christmas low but I was just trollin' ya...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 True...they nailed Snowtober though. (I tend to agree that it'll be more wet than white with Christmas low but I was just trollin' ya...) They did OK in some places on that one. Eh. Anyway, who the hell knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Haven't really changed my thoughts... keeping it rain for most everyone here... light/mod snow farther north and with elevation (Poconos/Berkshires/etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro looks better then gfs at this point but still wet untill you had towards poconos, oh well someone may eat a hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Your buddy JB tweeted.."Euro remains closest to my ideas on eastern snows the next 7 days"....after that he has the proverbial torch for all through most of January before the cold comes back 0Z 12/20 EC says no snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro on Christmas Night at 7pm - elevation snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hmmmm......seems a bit of merging is in order? needs a mods touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Your buddy JB tweeted.."Euro remains closest to my ideas on eastern snows the next 7 days"....after that he has the proverbial torch for all through most of January before the cold comes back this is the worst part of the statement. hope local ski areas survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 FYI...at this point the Wxsim has snow on Christmas morning becoming briefly moderate by 9am and ending by 11am with just a little more then 1" accumulating as my kids are opening their presents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 FYI...at this point the Wxsim has snow on Christmas morning becoming briefly moderate by 9am and ending by 11am with just a little more then 1" accumulating as my kids are opening their presents Yeah, based on the way things look......those well NW of Philly, especially over 500 feet have atleast a chance for some excitement at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 FYI...at this point the Wxsim has snow on Christmas morning becoming briefly moderate by 9am and ending by 11am with just a little more then 1" accumulating as my kids are opening their presents Paul, Every foot of elevation will help (and appears needed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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