Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 2M temps can run high in the early season. it would probably be snow for a good portion of the area. yeah unless you've got a really strong marine influence, like my area, generally seems you can use the 40F isotherm as an OK approximation if the column off the deck is OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 2M temps can run high in the early season. it would probably be snow for a good portion of the area. Is that for all runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm as bad as the next guy/gal, but let's keep this about the Xmas storm and the LR pattern in the appropriate thread for that. I moved the last 4 posts (including my own) to that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BL actually is a bit marginal on the euro on sunday. way too early to care but...at 18z the 925 0c line is running e/w along the ma/ct border...it actually crashes in E and SE MA by 00z - maybe dynamically cooled based on the strong 7h comma look - but remains "mild" in RI/parts of CT. given the cool looking surface temps...it's probably a pretty thick column of air that's 3C to 1C from bottom up. will change each run, but just goes to show that it's not a clear cut deal i guess after closer inspection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 bit of a seeder-feeder look for friday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Did the Euro look pretty good for southern Maine Sat eve? I just want a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 looks like a dusting to a couple inches at the end of the week if everything works out but its really threading the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, only been saying pattern change for SNE the minute I land in December for months... thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 bit of a seeder-feeder look for friday night? Yeah I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Did the Euro look pretty good for southern Maine Sat eve? I just want a few inches. No, It was to far SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The s/w as depicted by the euro and the whole scenario as a whole reminds me a bit of 12/23/97. BY no means am I remotely suggesting that could happen, but the pattern as depicted reminds me a bit of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The s/w as depicted by the euro and the whole scenario as a whole reminds me a bit of 12/23/97. BY no means am I remotely suggesting that could happen, but the pattern as depicted reminds me a bit of it. does kind of have that garbage non-descript look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles bring the low right over the Cape as a very weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The s/w as depicted by the euro and the whole scenario as a whole reminds me a bit of 12/23/97. BY no means am I remotely suggesting that could happen, but the pattern as depicted reminds me a bit of it. Scott how did storm 3 look on the euro for the 26/27? I'm starting to think the reason why the euro is less amped and SE is Because it's starting to shift it's energy from storm 2 to storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles bring the low right over the Cape as a very weak low. how do they look fri am-sat am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensembles bring the low right over the Cape as a very weak low. I would imagine the ens are weak since its not a powerful storm (12z run), ens warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 how do they look fri am-sat am? Very strung out. I can't see QPF probs yet, but my guess it's probably low. It looks like there may be two camps for that second low. One is further west near the Cape, the other is se like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Scott how did storm 3 look on the euro for the 26/27? I'm starting to think the reason why the euro is less amped and SE is Because it's starting to shift it's energy from storm 2 to storm 3 It was a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 There is a threat to track....a legitimate one. We know the pattern blows but we're in a llittle window where winter is happening. The cold overperformed for the first time in months yesterday it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Very strung out. I can't see QPF probs yet, but my guess it's probably low. It looks like there may be two camps for that second low. One is further west near the Cape, the other is se like the op. Mean QPF isn't too bad. 0.10" up to the NH/VT-MA border. 0.25" over libations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Mean QPF isn't too bad. 0.10" up to the NH/VT-MA border. 0.25" over libations. Is that total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The thermal profile for storm two looked like the op. A little surprised having it track so close, but like I said..there is spread. I still don't like the looks of this at the moment, but something to track I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 24hr total valid 138hr. what about the period ending like 108 hrs or whatever that would be...00z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Euro is really hanging that energy way back into the SW. red flag? Another thing is that on Thursday and Friday it has pacific air blasting into the Canadian prairies, but by Saturday Sunday it's gone... What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 OK...let me get my **** together before making another post. LOL 24hr QPF valid at 108hr is what I originally described. 0.10" up to NH/MA border and 0.25" up to libations. 0.05" around Plymouth, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 OK...let me get my **** together before making another post. LOL 24hr QPF valid at 108hr is what I originally described. 0.10" up to NH/MA border and 0.25" up to libations. 0.05" around Plymouth, NH. LOL...cool thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That's a pretty good high for Friday and Saturday. While not modeled per se, would think there would be a little more widespread -SN than shown. Probably some sort of pseudo CF enhanced stuff too.. maybe even a little upslope for ORH hills...Berks etc. We'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Thanks Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 24hr QPF valid 156hr for the Xmas event has a widespread 0.25-0.50" over much of New England. 0.25" line runs from about FZY-BTV-HUL. Maybe there's a little more in SW CT before 132hr, but you get the idea. It doesn't mean much at this point, but figured I'd mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol @ local stations predicting change over time and giving details 6 days away for the Christmas storm. I mean seriously? Sunday: Rain turns to snow overnight Saturday into very early Sunday morning (mostly rain on the Cape.) It's a brief period of rain/snow and should be over by mid-morning Sunday, the latest. Merry Christmas!! Highs near 40. Just say, snow/rain showers Friday followed by cool temps Saturday and a possible storm with rain or snow on Christmas day...why give details like this? Very irresponsible imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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