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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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I know! I hate THERE threads. Glad I don't live THEIR.

:o

Ha ha

Folks - the 12z Euro shows its inherent shakiness as a model at D5 and beyond. That said ... I disagree with the GFS thermal fields and think the Euro has a better handle on the thickness gradient likely to result from moderately strong CAA preceding, having a source origin from off positive anomaly cryosphere. If the CAA wasn't there I may think otherwise, but the GFS doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense synoptically. Considering that in its own depictions it has a 1035-like MB polar high transiting N of Maine 24 hours prior, with its native grid it may be eroding/displacing polar air out of the region prematurely.

That's my take for now...

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Ha ha

Folks - the 12z Euro shows it's inherent shakiness as a model at D5 and beyond. That said ... I disagree with the GFS thermal fields and think the Euro has a better handle on the thickness gradient likely to result from moderately strong CAA preceding, having a source origin from off positive anomaly cryosphere. If the CAA wasn't there I may think otherwise, but the GFS doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense synoptically. Considering that in its own depictions it has a 1035-like MB polar high transiting N of Maine 24 hours prior, with it's native grid it may be eroding/displacing polar air out of the region prematurely.

That's my take for now...

Confluence FTW?

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