CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 a lot were flat...a few were over NYC area actually looked like several liked the follow-up energy on the 26th for a real amped inland runner. Yeah the timing wasn't quite like the GFS op, so they probably were feeling that thing on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 i miss the days when you'd just have a nice clipper cutting through the OV, and spreading a nice 3 to 5" snowfall across SNE. i swear "back in the day" we had those a lot (maybe that's a good sign for this winter given the similarities to some of the 80s winters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 While this is definitely a thread the needle situation...I do believe there is a bit more room here than there was from that cut-off that gave MRG 1 3/4" and SE NY etc. a minor snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 i miss the days when you'd just have a nice clipper cutting through the OV, and spreading a nice 3 to 5" snowfall across SNE. i swear "back in the day" we had those a lot (maybe that's a good sign for this winter given the similarities to some of the 80s winters) Yeah...I remember a lot of light all-snow events growing up. A lot more than we've had recently. The past few years it's basically been go big or go home. They may not end up all snow for everyone, but they're QPF juggernauts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BOX seeing the confluence that some of us were talking about(SOUTA) CONFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC YIELDING A STORM TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ITS DELIVER OF COLD AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND. Well the problem is that there is little to stop the shift nw in the track. Yes we have ridging out west, but when you already have a strong s/w disturbance in the Plains with a +AO...that is a red flag and the reason that many are worried of a nw track. Hopefully the disturbance remains a little more weaker and something like the euro comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well the problem is that there is little to stop the shift nw in the track. Yes we have ridging out west, but when you already have a strong s/w disturbance in the Plains with a +AO...that is a red flag and the reason that many are worried of a nw track. Hopefully the disturbance remains a little more weaker and something like the euro comes about. yeah and basically the same reason were back to the 40s today after yesterday's frigid weather...and will be back to the 40s/50s on wednesday after tomorrow's cool down too. yada yada. there's a synergy to this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Sounds about right for this years pattern..... Remember we had a few early runs that showed a close call with this Wednesday's sw flow event. Now the models have rain right to Montreal with it. It's the same old story...maybe we can time it out just right to get lucky with snow, hope for the Christmas miracle. . The GFS is too strong with the primary low and energy out in the Plains. Looks like a mix to rain except maybe all frozen by GC and NNE. Looks SWFE like, but without a cold antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Donny baseball with a nice post a minute ago in the medium range thread on the main board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah and basically the same reason were back to the 40s today after yesterday's frigid weather...and will be back to the 40s/50s on wednesday after tomorrow's cool down too. yada yada. there's a synergy to this whole thing. And then 30's and snow on Friday..tit for tat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Donny baseball with a nice post a minute ago in the medium range thread on the main board. Nothing new there..Just a rehash of what everyone else has been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Folks, bank on the first system. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 hopefully we aren't seeing the euro's bias of being too slow to bring out the energy out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And then 30's and snow on Friday..tit for tat yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing. overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern. the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's down to luck (or unluck) really.... Do we see it time out right in ejecting from the southwes... i.e. to make use of our modest transient confluence around Saturday/Sunday? Does too much vigorous energy come out or is it just enough to give us overunning over our not very cold antecedent airmass? The idea that some confluence exists is driving it to reform over the Atlantic I think and hence the unusual (for this year) high to our north ...if that timing goes off we are left with just the usual primary over Montreal. and not hopefully we aren't seeing the euro's bias of being too slow to bring out the energy out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GEFS wants very little to do with the euro's storm. However, there is a strong signal of the low on the 23rd giving SNE frozen precip around 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing. overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern. the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road. Summed up nicely. We're not being Debbie's, just calling it as we see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GEFS wants very little to do with the euro's storm. However, there is a strong signal of the low on the 23rd giving SNE frozen precip around 96 hours. There is a little kink in the isobars at hr 156 over SNE, so that's probably the low....looks like a SWFE on it as shown, but not liking the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looking at nothing else except that map ..you could surmise a general 1-3 or 2-4 inch area of snow with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 it's not the the euro is weaker per say than the gfs...it's just that the timing is different...and the shortwave is digging for oil in texas at 96-108 hours. The GFS has the 500mb low further north....and the energy is strung out. The Euro keeps the energy compact and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing. overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern. the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road. Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints. Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 hopefully we aren't seeing the euro's bias of being too slow to bring out the energy out of the SW. Hopefully what we are seeing is it's bias of being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Let's just lock in the 06z DGEX for the next week: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/06zdgex850mbTSLPp06dgexLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints. Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that. That is the only thing we are missing for the last 12 months. a historic ice storm would be the final nail in CL & P's coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah Nick, I see that as well. Euro is much more concentrated with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Chicago got its first inch Saturday...1.2 I think. While BOS has had the inch, 1.2 will make messenger a hungrier man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GGEM is OTS with Monday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 It is a sickening feeling to know that we are moving inexorably toward Joe's first utterance of "Best Spring Ever" in February, and still waiting for some semblance of winter wx to start. Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints. Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GGEM is OTS with Monday's storm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 CMC gives a light snow event Friday...maybe an inch or 2 then as Kevin mentioned, OTS. I think the Friday system is our best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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