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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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i miss the days when you'd just have a nice clipper cutting through the OV, and spreading a nice 3 to 5" snowfall across SNE.

i swear "back in the day" we had those a lot (maybe that's a good sign for this winter given the similarities to some of the 80s winters) :lol:

Yeah...I remember a lot of light all-snow events growing up. A lot more than we've had recently. The past few years it's basically been go big or go home. They may not end up all snow for everyone, but they're QPF juggernauts.
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BOX seeing the confluence that some of us were talking about(SOUTA)

CONFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

INTO QUEBEC YIELDING A STORM TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS

PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN

STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ITS DELIVER OF

COLD AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND.

Well the problem is that there is little to stop the shift nw in the track. Yes we have ridging out west, but when you already have a strong s/w disturbance in the Plains with a +AO...that is a red flag and the reason that many are worried of a nw track. Hopefully the disturbance remains a little more weaker and something like the euro comes about.

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Well the problem is that there is little to stop the shift nw in the track. Yes we have ridging out west, but when you already have a strong s/w disturbance in the Plains with a +AO...that is a red flag and the reason that many are worried of a nw track. Hopefully the disturbance remains a little more weaker and something like the euro comes about.

yeah and basically the same reason were back to the 40s today after yesterday's frigid weather...and will be back to the 40s/50s on wednesday after tomorrow's cool down too. yada yada.

there's a synergy to this whole thing.

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Sounds about right for this years pattern..... Remember we had a few early runs that showed a close call with this Wednesday's sw flow event. Now the models have rain right to Montreal with it.

It's the same old story...maybe we can time it out just right to get lucky with snow, hope for the Christmas miracle.

.

The GFS is too strong with the primary low and energy out in the Plains. Looks like a mix to rain except maybe all frozen by GC and NNE. Looks SWFE like, but without a cold antecedent airmass.

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And then 30's and snow on Friday..tit for tat

yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing.

overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern.

the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge

but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road.

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It's down to luck (or unluck) really....

Do we see it time out right in ejecting from the southwes... i.e. to make use of our modest transient

confluence around Saturday/Sunday?

Does too much vigorous energy come out or is it just enough to give us overunning over our not very cold antecedent airmass?

The idea that some confluence exists is driving it to reform over the Atlantic I think and hence the unusual (for this year) high to our north ...if that timing goes off we are left with just the usual primary over Montreal.

and not

hopefully we aren't seeing the euro's bias of being too slow to bring out the energy out of the SW.

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yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing.

overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern.

the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge

but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road.

Summed up nicely. We're not being Debbie's, just calling it as we see it.

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GEFS wants very little to do with the euro's storm. However, there is a strong signal of the low on the 23rd giving SNE frozen precip around 96 hours.

There is a little kink in the isobars at hr 156 over SNE, so that's probably the low....looks like a SWFE on it as shown, but not liking the setup.

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yeah i think friday offers at least some opportunity. but again were hoping for some pretty good timing.

overall, i'm just saying the pattern is hostile because everything really has to work out in our favor. it certainly could - maybe there's a big xmas blizzard - the weather does weird stuff all the time...but we're pretty deep into the month now and you only have to look back at how this is playing out to see the concern.

the big +AO/NAO combo and that se ridge are just an evil combination as a whole. all this energy is coming down through the rockies and gettting dumped in the SW and southern plains and then ejecting out into the lower mississippi river valley...but nothing's there to keep it from just riding the to the N and W of the ridge

but that's just the overall look...hopefully one of these things works out where the northern stream is able to feed in some cold and flatten stuff just enough to make things break in our direction. who knows, maybe we're setting up for an interior ice storm somewhere down the road.

Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints.

Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that.

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Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints.

Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that.

That is the only thing we are missing for the last 12 months. a historic ice storm would be the final nail in CL & P's coffin.

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It is a sickening feeling to know that we are moving inexorably toward Joe's first utterance of "Best Spring Ever" in February, and still waiting for some semblance of winter wx to start.

Well just for the record..I'm not expecting a blizzard..but hopeful we can pull out a decent snowstorm out of this God awful mess before we head back to 60's for a week or 2 in early Jan. By then we'll start hearing sun angle complaints.

Hopefully there is a damaging icestorm this winter. If we can't have snow at least give us that.

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