wxmanmitch Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 So far this appears to be one of those "close but no cigar" type of deals. As long as that energy is in the SW, it will be hard to get the NRN stream wave to really dig (destructive wave interference). It could happen if that SW energy can really stay far enough away to allow the NRN stream wave to dig faster and deeper. Of course, this will also depend on how much energy is associated with the NRN stream feature. GFS is much closer to making something happen than the Euro is right now. Regardless, it bears watching for another 24 hours or so, especially for ENE as something could still happen. WNE is usually toast in these late blooming Miller B scenarios, unless we can get something to go ballistic south of LI, which seems rather unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That energy in the SW eventually moves our way on the EC op/ens, but there's little to no cold air to work with and the SE ridge is honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 out to 54 on 18z GFS, the additional amplification of today's storm has shifted the trof axis further west which seems to be allowing the s/w in canada to dive further west....furthermore, gulf moisutre streaming more NW than 60 hrs at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 out to 72, GFS should definitely be closer than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This isnt over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This isnt over yet. agreed, plenty of time for it to tick NW and give us rain edit: Block island jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks more like an inverted trough rather than an actual storm, which is way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well I actually think the 5H depiction on this 18Z run is much improved. It does phase in the southern energy now. Also assuming the GFS tendency to blow up lows down near the GS and not where it should relative to the upper vort, I think this current 5H depiction would slam SNE pretty good...fast, but hard hitter. So far this appears to be one of those "close but no cigar" type of deals. As long as that energy is in the SW, it will be hard to get the NRN stream wave to really dig (destructive wave interference). It could happen if that SW energy can really stay far enough away to allow the NRN stream wave to dig faster and deeper. Of course, this will also depend on how much energy is associated with the NRN stream feature. GFS is much closer to making something happen than the Euro is right now. Regardless, it bears watching for another 24 hours or so, especially for ENE as something could still happen. WNE is usually toast in these late blooming Miller B scenarios, unless we can get something to go ballistic south of LI, which seems rather unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well I actually think the 5H depiction on this 18Z run is much improved. It does phase in the southern energy now. Also assuming the GFS tendency to blow up lows down near the GS and not where it should relative to the upper vort, I think this current 5H depiction would slam SNE pretty good...fast, but hard hitter. It's closer, but ideally we need to see the 5H low dig more and cutoff a bit sooner for much of SNE to get hit good. This solution could definitely mean something for SENE though. Still time for this to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well if the seasonal trend holds this one should keep ticking closer with time (I will be out of town so I'd miss anything if it does hit so I'm trying not to be biased by imbyism). It would be a sad twist of irony if this is the one storm that fails the last minute N trend and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Definitely a nice trend at H5..can't believe I'm letting this threat suck me back in. At the least maybe some of you ENE 's will have some flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Definitely a nice trend at H5..can't believe I'm letting this threat suck me back in. At the least maybe some of you ENE 's will have some flakes flying. H5 looks pretty good. If there's a drop of moisture in the column it should get wrung out by that troff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 meh. nothing to see here cept some SNSH for CC and far eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 lol...H5 looks good...classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 0zgfs a complete miss, and by a good margin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 just some upslope snow in the NW flow behind the S/W for upstate NY and NNE on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 meh. nothing to see here cept some SNSH for CC and far eastern SNE. 0zgfs a complete miss, and by a good margin just some upslope snow in the NW flow behind the S/W for upstate NY and NNE on the GFS Am I really the only one who's happy to see this the way it is right now? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yup Am I really the only one who's happy to see this the way it is right now? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 0zgfs a complete miss, and by a good margin The difference between the 00z GFS and 18z GFS are laughable at H5... 00z all of a sudden develops the strongest S/W of the year over Arkansas an kicks the northern stream out.. that model is so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just remember, a certain storm not long ago was modeled to be a fish storm a few days out, then came so far inland that it gave PF rain. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro rainstorm next Tue/Wed night. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 The upper level pattern on the GFS through H384 was just repugnant..... Euro rainstorm next Tue/Wed night. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro rainstorm next Tue/Wed night. Lock it up. LOL... if only we can get that northern stream to dig more... Sounds like were starting a theme. Blah... Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The upper level pattern on the GFS through H384 was just repugnant..... Euro is winning, it's ugly. Predominately warm, we need to just grin and bear it prison style until 1/15 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The only miracle is that our next gtg will not be held at a wake....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The only miracle is that our next gtg will not be held at a wake....yet. Jeezuz Ray, I have to go to an in-laws wake on monday and I still can't stop laughing over this post. I found that a glass of premium small batch bourbon helps ease into accepting the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Jeezuz Ray, I have to go to an in-laws wake on monday and I still can't stop laughing over this post. I found that a glass of premium small batch bourbon helps ease into accepting the current pattern. Oh...sorry, man....glad you can still appreciate the humor. My condolences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I only see a flat line on the monitor somebody should summons the paddles for this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It was never alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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