Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 If it keeps trending this way ...the first thing we might see is the return of the inverted trough snows scenario. That's where this all started as depicted on the GFS runs from last weekend. That digging SW is not far from being interesting Miller B style. Or could be a great 8 th inning set up man for Mariano to come in and close this wacky year out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If only had a bit more ridging in front of that shortwave coming into the lakes at Xmas...that would be a serious big time miller B threat for New England...esp eastern parts. It would be a BOS special and esp up to Ray in NE MA and of course into Maine. Oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 JB is going on about January being a blow torch in the east ...at least through like first three weeks. He is even saying it could rival 2006 or the first two weeks of Jan. 2007. He's basically saying we have 10 days to get some winter threats and then curtains until late January. I can understand forecasts like this and he could very well be right. Even though it is not a cold pattern, there are going to be threats with these waves free to amplify east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I can understand forecasts like this and he could very well be right. Even though it is not a cold pattern, there are going to be threats with these waves free to amplify east of the Rockies. It could really be a very frustrating few weeks. Without any blocking and a bad pattern around us with the AO and the PNA in flux...there is the potential for amplification to occur too far west with a lack of blocking or any cold air source. When we do have the cold air, the positioning of the Polar Vortex could really screw us and force things to develop too far to the east and out to sea. One of those patterns where when it precipitates, it's usually too warm. I really hope we can get out of this...but the GEFS are pretty scary in bringing back the death vortex over Alaska around Day 10. They erode is somewhat quickly..but then build the Polar Vortex right back over Greenland. What a disaster that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like something coming down the pipe at 198 as well. If the second W. Atlantic wave had phased on the 00z ECMWF, the Ohio Valley storm would have been an East Coast storm. I suppose that is a distinct possibility and then we would have to wait for the one behind that one. The thing to take notice on the models is that the progression ends by New Years of long waves and the N PAC once again returns to a state of retrogression. This is key in determining when the threat period will be around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 jb said the cold pattern is coming in jan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro ensembles still are a little too late with the storm, but the euro op was so close. Gotta get that nrn stream to dig like I mentioned earlier..it went from srn stream to nrn stream..lol. Still looks like a low chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If only had a bit more ridging in front of that shortwave coming into the lakes at Xmas...that would be a serious big time miller B threat for New England...esp eastern parts. It would be a BOS special and esp up to Ray in NE MA and of course into Maine. Hmmmmm--and I'm going to the midcoast Christmas night. I hate not being home, but this might be a good time to be away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z and esp 00z tonight he Xmas storm will be back. Wait watch and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z and esp 00z tonight he Xmas storm will be back. Wait watch and see Trending that way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I would like to think this would come back but the large scale synoptics don't really support it do they? Why should we expect a shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 :toaster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 wouldn't take much more and we're snowing monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 wouldn't take much more and we're snowing monday Yup...E MA scrape at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 S/W really digging. It's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yup...E MA scrape at 96hr. babysteps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Congrats phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Models are certainly trying if we can get that s/w to dig south more it could be more interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GEFS look better to graze ern areas maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GEFS look better to graze ern areas maybe. Yeah I'm guessing based on that kink in the isobars to the west that maybe there are a few members tucked closer... The euro actually had a fair amount of RH through the column but was mainly just flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Saturday looks snowy for you and I Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Several of the individual members bring decent precip to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Saturday looks snowy for you and I Phil. yeah pretty much every gfs ensemble member hangs back some snow on saturday...little ocean enhancement and some convergence i think along that weak surface trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Several of the individual members bring decent precip to SNE. Even into SE CT? I am thinking of hunting Monday morning and would love to know the possible conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 how big of a miss is 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 how big of a miss is 12z euro? it doesn't get its act together til pretty far offshore. just scrapes the cape with very minor qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMizer Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Per JB on twitter GFS correcting west with upper feature for weekend. Not over yet for Christmas snow in northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 it doesn't get its act together til pretty far offshore. just scrapes the cape with very minor qpf. What are the typical model biases with miller B storms? Which one is usually the best? Don't most models have a hard time with actually developing the storm then once it does, it goes to town? The H5 of the GFS looked really good to me. You can see on the 12z Euro where it went crappy for us. at day 4 it takes that energy that was handing back in Mexico and kicking up towards texas thus preventing digging for the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's probably too soon to entirely give up on it...but the Euro was a complete fail and disappointment. Per JB on twitter GFS correcting west with upper feature for weekend. Not over yet for Christmas snow in northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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