CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good thing I didn't bash the GFS yesterday (although in my mind I was waiting for it to get owned). I know there is time, but even the EC ensembles can prove vulnerable. Red flag when one major set of guidance has nothing. GFS and its nrn stream fetish might have had the right idea. Will know in about 24-36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z tomorrow we'll see some models bring it back. I'd guess we also see some of the 00z ens with some hits tonight. It'll be slow and steady and by 00z tomorrow nite they'll all have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If nothing else, maybe onshore flow ahead of low pressure in the Lakes will allow for some -SN on Christmas Night. It's not modeled..but possible if the low doesn't come about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If nothing else, maybe onshore flow ahead of low pressure in the Lakes will allow for some -SN on Christmas Night. It's not modeled..but possible if the low doesn't come about. 18z GEFS certainly blow up the storm more-so than the 12z ensembles. The mean actually clips E NE with some 1-3" snows as the low is bombing. I be there are a couple weenie solutions in there. Def a trend west from 12z, but not holding out any hope after seeing the Euro. Nail in coffin probably comes tonight. FWIW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 18z GEFS certainly blow up the storm more-so than the 12z ensembles. The mean actually clips E NE with some 1-3" snows as the low is bombing. I be there are a couple weenie solutions in there. Def a trend west from 12z, but not holding out any hope after seeing the Euro. Nail in coffin probably comes tonight. FWIW.. A few give the region a decent inverted trough and there are a couple that give us a Miller B bomb that briefly retrogrades off the Cape. It's a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We will wait and see, Models are trying to get the low going but its way to far north and east, Will see if it shows up over the next day or so, I had said by 12z thurs if it was there i would be interested so we shall see, It definitly would fit the thread title, Right litchfieldlibations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RIP... it was a good run. What a nice West to East zonal flow showing up at day 5-6 on the GFS This sucks... sigh I thought you were in Cali? Why aren't you on a golf course? You better get some practice in, you're going to need it. It won't be surprising if this threat comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A few give the region a decent inverted trough and there are a couple that give us a Miller B bomb that briefly retrogrades off the Cape. It's a longshot. Miracles happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I thought you were in Cali? Why aren't you on a golf course? You better get some practice in, you're going to need it. It won't be surprising if this threat comes back. I'm playing here tomorrow http://www.mtwoodson...=64147&sid=3844 Teeing off on the first hole tomorrow will make me not care about any moderate snow event happening without me. Oh and I don't really see this coming back.. The H5 setup is so putrid looking. Its gonna be a Sheared out, Suppressed SOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Anyone else notice how impressive the NAM is tonight at 84h? Trying to almost make this a northern stream threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Anyone else notice how impressive the NAM is tonight at 84h? Trying to almost make this a northern stream threat. Yeah, i was just wishing there was a little bit more lead s/w ridging - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm playing here tomorrow http://www.mtwoodson...=64147&sid=3844 Teeing off on the first hole tomorrow will make me not care about any moderate snow event happening without me. Oh and I don't really see this coming back.. The H5 setup is so putrid looking. Its gonna be a Sheared out, Suppressed SOB 50f here tomorrow. http://www.sagamoregolf.com/ Golf in NH X-mas week FTW We've had 4 consecutive white X-mas, we were due for a let down. Friday might deliver for some though. So close to Torrey how could you not????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The Euro is close. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The 0Z GGEM is really quite sharp with the digging N stream trough and strong vort on Christmas. Keep this up and we night be able to pull a Miller B situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Northern stream is digging like a mother...we might end up rooting for a late blooming Miller B here in the next day or two if that trend continues...the NAM had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 120 Hours the Euro has an absolute monster in the NW Atlantic....hundreds of miles away but it goes absolutely nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 120 Hours the Euro has an absolute monster in the NW Atlantic....hundreds of miles away but it goes absolutely nuts. A few breakers like that and you'll see the NAO state turn around pretty quickly. I am predicting the next -AO dip coming on 1/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A few breakers like that and you'll see the NAO state turn around pretty quickly. I am predicting the next -AO dip coming on 1/8. It's amazing though, it cuts off so i'm not sure how far west it will get as it gains latitude. The run isn't finished yet, but the PV just doesn't want to give in over Northern Canada..it's totally dominating the pattern over the Davis Straight and Greenland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's amazing though, it cuts off so i'm not sure how far west it will get as it gains latitude. The run isn't finished yet, but the PV just doesn't want to give in over Northern Canada..it's totally dominating the pattern over the Davis Straight and Greenland too. This is how you would get the New Years potential. Should this low in the NW Atlantic occur, the temporary ridging again in the West (from the Gulf of Alaska vortex) and a s/w to come along east of the Rockies, it would setup a somewhat okay flow for the East. There is nothing ideal about anything through the first week of January, as many have pointed out. But, I don't think we are warm, dry and boring either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Northern stream is digging like a mother...we might end up rooting for a late blooming Miller B here in the next day or two if that trend continues...the NAM had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This is how you would get the New Years potential. Should this low in the NW Atlantic occur, the temporary ridging again in the West (from the Gulf of Alaska vortex) and a s/w to come along east of the Rockies, it would setup a somewhat okay flow for the East. There is nothing ideal about anything through the first week of January, as many have pointed out. But, I don't think we are warm, dry and boring either. That digging SW is not far from being interesting Miller B style. Or could be a great 8 th inning set up man for Mariano to come in and close this wacky year out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That digging SW is not far from being interesting Miller B style. Or could be a great 8 th inning set up man for Mariano to come in and close this wacky year out. There are going to be false-alarms up until this potential which is why my confidence is pretty low. There could be a series of western Atlantic Lows before something finally sets up for the East Coast. The 00z GFS ensemble mean sort of hints at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man, that is some major trough amplification over the OV at 174 hours. It looks like the entire baroclinic zone is way offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The ridge on the west coast is pretty flat this run, too, so the surface low is way (and i mean way) out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man, that is some major trough amplification over the OV at 174 hours. It looks like the entire baroclinic zone is way offshore though. Yeah this series from the "West Atlantic Assault" will bring a very warm end to December across Europe / UK and possibly a very warm New Years. While below normals will be hard to come by in the USA, the East Coast won't blowtorch either in a pattern like this....the Plains on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 There are going to be false-alarms up until this potential which is why my confidence is pretty low. There could be a series of western Atlantic Lows before something finally sets up for the East Coast. The 00z GFS ensemble mean sort of hints at that too. Some serious energy on that 5h lead, just offshore, interesting runs coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Unbelievable how we can not get a ridge even near Greenland or the Davis Straight. This is fork your eyes out type stuff watching the long range 500mb heights. The PV is eating everything in it's path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 JB is going on about January being a blow torch in the east ...at least through like first three weeks. He is even saying it could rival 2006 or the first two weeks of Jan. 2007. He's basically saying we have 10 days to get some winter threats and then curtains until late January. This is how you would get the New Years potential. Should this low in the NW Atlantic occur, the temporary ridging again in the West (from the Gulf of Alaska vortex) and a s/w to come along east of the Rockies, it would setup a somewhat okay flow for the East. There is nothing ideal about anything through the first week of January, as many have pointed out. But, I don't think we are warm, dry and boring either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Some serious energy on that 5h lead, just offshore, interesting runs coming up. Looks like something coming down the pipe at 198 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If only had a bit more ridging in front of that shortwave coming into the lakes at Xmas...that would be a serious big time miller B threat for New England...esp eastern parts. It would be a BOS special and esp up to Ray in NE MA and of course into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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