CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Decent disco from HPC explaining that it may be too early to completely write it off. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 AND 12Z/20 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WHATEVER CONSENSUS WAS EMERGING FROM THE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE 00Z/20 CYCLE IS NOW FLEETING...HAVING FALLEN VICTIM TO THE EVER DICEY INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT STREAMS. IN THIS CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE APPEARS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT DID...SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH A MASSIVE ENOUGH INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DAMPEN THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. HENCE...KEPT AT LEAST HALF OF THE OLDER ECMWF GUIDANCE IN THE MANUAL BLEND. UPSTREAM...THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...WITH A MEAN RIDGE HOLDING SWAY OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 reading this thread is painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As expected, and as I was talking about yesterday, and as I thought, the King's bias was at play. Hey Dryslot:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 S/W being held back much father west this run on the GFS..we'll see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nothing on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If the GFS wasn't as fast with the nrn stream..it wouldn't take much for a brush of snow really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nothing on this run. Yep..s/w took a trip to the meatgrinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I thought the gfs was close to something interesting...almost tries to do it all with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I thought the gfs was close to something interesting...almost tries to do it all with the northern stream. Yeah I see that too. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment, but it's very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it's also why it's dangerous for people to throw around accumulations like some OCMs did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah I see that too. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment, but it's very progressive. Right now it kinda looks like destructive interference between the two streams...if you lose the southern stream completely you would be better off...it robs the baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it's also why it's dangerous for people to throw around accumulations like some OCMs did last night. that's just amazing to me to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If we could get that upstream kicker to either slow down or dig further S, we could see something better out of this system. Lots of moving parts with this one right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We won't see this one back on guidance until 12z tomorrow. We'll see teases and tickles, but nothing until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nice to see folks not completely writing this off as I have done. If we don't see anything promising on the Ens or EC/Ens this afternoon, I think we can get out a fork..... 33.6/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re the 2nd storm (B. Day) - it will be interesting to see if the Euro comes back with it. I recall prior to the Halloween gig, the Euro dropped it at D4 and came smoking back the next run or two... I seem to recall others over the last 3 years where the Euro had an arbitrary abandoment interval thrown in there - I wonder if that is really true or if I am just imaging that. Lol. But it definitely dropped the H. storm for a day or day and half and brought it back. The GFS had no clue until 48 hours out and said, guess what - That said, the +PNA is shallow at less than +1SD. That means that some ridging in western N/A is preferred, but we're still conserving a lot of longitudinal vectors here. What that means is we are only so-so supporting much N/S amplitude in the flow ...flattish waves might be preferred in the general scheme. However, that does not preclude that the weak Miller A might get a steroid inject coming off the Delmarva like the ECM had it - note, the ECM never closed off the wave and kept it open? No violation of teleconnectors there. That is why I think it 50/50 that it comes back this morning or tonight. If it doesn't, the GFS will look pretty good on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well..the GEFS blow up a storm....and it is way west of 06z, but it is also way east of us..lol. It's using the nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 With the nrn stream..any sort of potential or inv trough may push back the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 S/W in question looks better this run at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Too little too late. Hopefully that energy in the southwest holds back enough to let the nrn stream dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Too little too late. Hopefully that energy in the southwest holds back enough to let the nrn stream dig. Looks better though right? I guess that's all that matters at this point as we'll see a NW trend probably from now until the 12/25 Euro really cranks the storm up on 12/26-27 just way OTS... plenty of time to change as handling these S/Ws will be very difficult. Yea Bob, the potential is definitely there, we just need that Southern Stream to hang back and let that Northern Stream Dig and trap the low. Looks like it would be a slow mover too. Anybody know how energy movement/lagging has been handled by models in previous situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Too little too late. Hopefully that energy in the southwest holds back enough to let the nrn stream dig. That thing bombs out on the 12z Euro. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well... JB hasn't jumped ship yet..... That thing bombs out on the 12z Euro. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That thing bombs out on the 12z Euro. wow. And it moves ESE as it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I definitely think there will be a huge ocean storm somewhere in the 12/25-12/27. Not sure if it will come close enough...but we'll have to wait and see...I could see it coming back 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 *sigh* from the HPC... THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MADE A DECIDED TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GRT LAKES ON DAY 4. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED IN NEW MODEL RUNS UNTIL MON/TUE. IN THIS CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE IS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT THE 00Z/20 ECMWF RUN....SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS THAT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY/SRN NEW ENG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As a sacrifice to the weather gods, the snowblower gets it tonight. You'll all thank me tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A little OT for this thread, but the OP Euro has a storm D7-D8 as that energy finally ejects out of the SW and rides up toward us. Kind of surprised no one else mentioned it. It's a nice tight little 992 mb low heading over CC. Unfortunately, due to the torch pattern, it would be a mostly rain event with some wet snow on the tail end type deal verbatim. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on. That SW energy has to come out sometime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard Well that was a lot of hype for nothing. Xmas day storm now OFF.@ddreyeron7 's prudence should b commended! #7news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RIP... it was a good run. What a nice West to East zonal flow showing up at day 5-6 on the GFS This sucks... sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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