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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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Decent disco from HPC explaining that it may be too early to completely write it off.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 AND 12Z/20 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF

FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.

WHATEVER CONSENSUS WAS EMERGING FROM THE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON

THE 00Z/20 CYCLE IS NOW FLEETING...HAVING FALLEN VICTIM TO THE

EVER DICEY INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT STREAMS. IN THIS CASE...THE

CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE SHORT

RANGE APPEARS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT DID...SQUASHING THE WAVE

EMERGING FROM TEXAS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PERSISTENT

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH A MASSIVE ENOUGH

INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DAMPEN

THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. HENCE...KEPT AT LEAST HALF OF THE OLDER ECMWF

GUIDANCE IN THE MANUAL BLEND. UPSTREAM...THE PATTERN IS A DRY

ONE...WITH A MEAN RIDGE HOLDING SWAY OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH

AMERICA.

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Re the 2nd storm (B. Day) - it will be interesting to see if the Euro comes back with it. I recall prior to the Halloween gig, the Euro dropped it at D4 and came smoking back the next run or two... I seem to recall others over the last 3 years where the Euro had an arbitrary abandoment interval thrown in there - I wonder if that is really true or if I am just imaging that. Lol. But it definitely dropped the H. storm for a day or day and half and brought it back. The GFS had no clue until 48 hours out and said, guess what -

That said, the +PNA is shallow at less than +1SD. That means that some ridging in western N/A is preferred, but we're still conserving a lot of longitudinal vectors here. What that means is we are only so-so supporting much N/S amplitude in the flow ...flattish waves might be preferred in the general scheme. However, that does not preclude that the weak Miller A might get a steroid inject coming off the Delmarva like the ECM had it - note, the ECM never closed off the wave and kept it open? No violation of teleconnectors there. That is why I think it 50/50 that it comes back this morning or tonight.

If it doesn't, the GFS will look pretty good on this one.

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Too little too late. Hopefully that energy in the southwest holds back enough to let the nrn stream dig.

Looks better though right? I guess that's all that matters at this point as we'll see a NW trend probably from now until the 12/25

Euro really cranks the storm up on 12/26-27 just way OTS... plenty of time to change as handling these S/Ws will be very difficult.

Yea Bob, the potential is definitely there, we just need that Southern Stream to hang back and let that Northern Stream Dig and trap the low. Looks like it would be a slow mover too.

Anybody know how energy movement/lagging has been handled by models in previous situations?

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*sigh* from the HPC...

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MADE A DECIDED

TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GRT LAKES ON DAY 4.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES

HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED IN NEW MODEL RUNS UNTIL MON/TUE. IN THIS

CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF

THE SHORT RANGE IS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT THE 00Z/20 ECMWF

RUN....SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS THAT MIGHT HAVE

BROUGHT A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY/SRN NEW ENG.

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A little OT for this thread, but the OP Euro has a storm D7-D8 as that energy finally ejects out of the SW and rides up toward us. Kind of surprised no one else mentioned it. It's a nice tight little 992 mb low heading over CC. Unfortunately, due to the torch pattern, it would be a mostly rain event with some wet snow on the tail end type deal verbatim. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on. That SW energy has to come out sometime...

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