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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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Lol the models have been laughable...the cutoff lows really are tough on the guidance. One has to wonder how much confidence we can have in anything at +5 days given the trends over the last 24 hours regarding the storm on Friday. Things are changing pretty rapidly in a short period of time on guidance. At least we have something to watch (by we I mean you guys, not in NJ unless there are people watching for 38 F and rain).

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Lol the models have been laughable...the cutoff lows really are tough on the guidance. One has to wonder how much confidence we can have in anything at +5 days given the trends over the last 24 hours regarding the storm on Friday. Things are changing pretty rapidly in a short period of time on guidance. At least we have something to watch (by we I mean you guys, not in NJ unless there are people watching for 38 F and rain).

If Kevin doesn't get some accums on Friday it may get ugly around here.
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I just saw the Euro...this threat is quickly going down the tubes although the ensembles still had a low over the benchmark albeit not well defined. I think the southern stream just gets sheared out too much to do anything. That northern stream ahead of it has trended stronger too...the stuff that might try and produce a norlun on Xmas even for someone in MA/NH/ME

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A game attempt at a comeback on the 6Z GFS.... stay tuned I guess.

I just saw the Euro...this threat is quickly going down the tubes although the ensembles still had a low over the benchmark albeit not well defined. I think the southern stream just gets sheared out too much to do anything. That northern stream ahead of it has trended stronger too...the stuff that might try and produce a norlun on Xmas even for someone in MA/NH/ME

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I think it's too soon to write it off.

It's soon enough to deflatel a lot of baloons. But, the 06z GFS seems to ressurect the idea on the heels of the EC's losing it.

With regard to Thursday night, BOX is really downplaying the qpf for northern MA. Seems they expect much of that to get dried out by the high to the north.

Meanhile, wonder if I might get a little ice this morning. Still below freezing--29.7/21

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I see the overnight models did not trend well for Xmas day, So we may just end up with the friday storm and some lingering lt snows into saturday, We will see how things go over the next day or 2, I will give it until 12z thurs on the xmas storm..

Keeping my eye on that inverted trough for Saturday. Could be some sneaky snow for some.

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LOL..6z GFS actually now has the storm.. Unreal

Still not a sniff on the 06z ensembles though. Euro ensembles still did have a semblance of low pressure on the BM at 120h, so I guess its not totally dead, but it definitely looks much less likely than just 12 hours ago...which probably wasn't that likely even then.

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You're not getting it. Last year the Euro had the storm and then lost it for several days OTS and then suddenly the 12z run of the GFS and NAM both brought it back the day before and then the Euro followed suit. My guess is the same type of thing has happened here.

Wasn't there also an issue with faulty data input for the models with that storm?

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I know what I would like to shoot,consistency the next generation upgrade?

Well there were a ton of moving parts and when the GFS and GEFS have nothing, that is a red flag. We'll see of they bring it back in the next couple of days, but I wouldn't get too invested in it right now.

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