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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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I decided to have any 12/23 discussion here:

http://www.americanw...snow-potential/

We are close enough to that threat now where it will probably give someone a few inches, so we can stop trying to discuss two events in the same thread.

Thanks Will

My head was spinning.

Yes, Thanks Will, Should relieve some of the confusion that some have

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The day before that under performing ana-frontal event two weeks ago, I was down at a Pilot truck stop near Schenectady and all it was swarming with local plow guys tanking up for that supposed 6" event in the greater CD.... I guess their tanks are still full. No plowable event yet around the lowlands of the ALB area.

Yeah, the plow drivers this year must be hating life

On a good note, still piles left from October 29 at Walmart in Gardner

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Do any of you guys have Joe Bstardi on tweetdeck.....Here are his last few tweets just a few minutes ago..don't shoot the messenger !!!

European all aboard with Christmas day storm up east coast. My map idea from yesterday on this still holds! pic.twitter.com/5dqUtF1C

GFS cant handle separate streams. Southern system will not weaken and trough digs into it and amplifies on east coast Christmas day

This is the same error pattern as halloween storm and storm a couple of weeks ago that wound up even further west than I had

Look for GFS to start its trend toward Euro and its ensembles. GFS also too far south and too cold with thur into fri storm ( see map)

This idea ( euro) much closer to my idea than gfs which is notorious for missing phasing pic.twitter.com/xdxbUxY8

https://twitter.com/...1286146/photo/1

https://twitter.com/...9620480/photo/1

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I'd say the GFS is irrelevant re: the Christmas event until probably Friday evening.... clearly clueless now and the most we can expect is a slow gradual comeback on that model until finally maybe by 0Z Saturday it has a real clue. Our tax dollars at work.

Look at the Thursday night event...the GFS started with that moisture staying well south of SNE...now it's got measurable to central NH.

The varying GFS solutions and GEF members makes me think we had something around init time that is to be a moderate player but that was on the edge of the init. IE something may not have verified well at init. we will see tonight.

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Still only 1 GEFS member with it on ewall too.

My guess..and virtually a WAG at this point, is that it may be a classic GFS thing not handling the southern stream well. However, I hope it means the euro may move se a bit...but I'm still pretty scared of a warmer solution right now...even with the 18z GFS and ensembles.

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Typical for him to be too far southeast with snowfall and have to slowly shift it west/north some.

It does kinda look like if you were playing the odds, the western burbs of DC and BWI may have as good a shot as lets say the western burbs of BOS, given the trajectory.

Friday's modest event is more aligned WSW to ENE.

lol--what a joke he is. his #3 circle is absurd.

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As do I, a driving rainstorm just does not sound appealing on Christmas.

If there is a significant event, it's just difficult for me to imagine it being a snow event for most of sne civilization given the pattern.

Just give me a sloppy inch for xmas and I'd take it and run.....but I'd rather nothing than a big event.

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If there is a significant event, it's just difficult for me to imagine it being a snow event for most of sne civilization given the pattern.

Just give me a sloppy inch for xmas and I'd take it and run.....but I'd rather nothing than a big event.

Hey we agree! Haha you know the pattern is bad when a lot of us are just hoping for a whiff. Plus no one likes to see a large storm hit someone while leaving others out on Xmas... or worse, raining on Xmas.

But 40/70 don't worry...it won't trend NW cause it's not on a day 5 prog. :lol:

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Hey we agree! Haha you know the pattern is bad when a lot of us are just hoping for a whiff. Plus no one likes to see a large storm hit someone while leaving others out on Xmas... or worse, raining on Xmas.

But 40/70 don't worry...it won't trend NW cause it's not on a day 5 prog. :lol:

If I were you, I'd hope for a big event....you can do fine in this pattern.

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Typical for him to be too far southeast with snowfall and have to slowly shift it west/north some.

It does kinda look like if you were playing the odds, the western burbs of DC and BWI may have as good a shot as lets say the western burbs of BOS, given the trajectory.

Friday's modest event is more aligned WSW to ENE.

possibly tho there is almost no cold air. climo further north is considerably better in that scenario.

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