dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It may have found the xmas storm although it may be a day late GFS babysteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS babysteps. Yeah....lol, Its the GFS lost and found model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Whew! Thank goodness I'm 3 miles south. I'll jackpot... not You're far enough east at least for better odds. MP and I will be counting snow flakes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Couldn't be....the storms was modeled to miss him at 6 days lead with the polar indecies @ +12 SD LOL you aren't going to let that go are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 As bad as a setup could be for a storm on the coast, it slides east anyways but hp retreating se of nyc, no cold air to the west or north of the storm. Putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS lol, what a freaking mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS babysteps. Looks pretty progressive at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS lol, what a freaking mess Its a dissaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its a dissaster Nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Weren't Dec. '01 and '06 worse than this? Maybe not up in BUF I know they had some epic LES in '06. not in BUF...this is the worst start in many years. Dec. 2001 snowstorm ain't happening this year either, no sign of a major pattern change which caused that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nightmare cuttoff from all civilization, Its the gfs, And its on its own island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hopefully this short wintry interlue holds long enough for the Xmas snow storm, but by midweek we are gonna enter another ugly period... Evil vortex back in AK....rinse/repeat pattern though winter version so hopefully not 55+ Maybe into January somewhere we get our few weeks of real winter. Its a dissaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro not a bad run for interior SNE above I-84 corridor with regards to 12/25-26. Berks, Monads, and NNE would do well, especially in light of the lingering deformation, which could keep the snow going into Monday if this run were to verify verbatim. In addition, it looks like we get into a NW flow upslope regime on the backside with low level moisture and lake effect, which could give some bonus to the west facing areas that get robbed during the easterly flow portion of the event. I also like a 1-3" or 2-4" deal for the Berks above 1K Friday morning. As such, I like the chances of a white Xmas in this neck of the woods. Synoptic snow followed by upslope would be a very merry Christmas. Long live the ECM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hopefully this short wintry interlue holds long enough for the Xmas snow storm, but by midweek we are gonna enter another ugly period... Evil vortex back in AK....rinse/repeat pattern though winter version so hopefully not 55+ Maybe into January somewhere we get our few weeks of real winter. If its not until mid january there will be a lot less posters on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Synoptic snow followed by upslope would be a very merry Christmas. Long live the ECM! Ride it until proven wrong repeatedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its a dissaster Wow Wachusett will melt away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Too bad we aren't gonna get any decent precip. ahead of this current system because I'm down to 24 ...so starting off rather nippy. Wow Wachusett will melt away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Too bad we aren't gonna get any decent precip. ahead of this current system because I'm down to 24 ...so starting off rather nippy. 27F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A moment to gripe. I actually like the NCEP page. By looping it and then "stopping", you can then toggle through the run with your arrow keys. I'm glad I discovered that otherwise I'd have hated it. But--while I love the 3 hour intervals, why does it still show qpf as 6 hour ones? Really screws up your perspective. Back to the Thursday night event--it's possible that some of us might be able to letigimately have a need to shovel. Since we're not going to go into a perpetural cold, I think the over/under 3" rule will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wow Wachusett will melt away toss it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Too bad we aren't gonna get any decent precip. ahead of this current system because I'm down to 24 ...so starting off rather nippy. 39 here now dew point of 18, precip going to barely miss to the south could have been some pellets and grains wet bulb would have been impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 cuttoff from all civilization, Its the gfs, And its on its own island I think that island is actually Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A moment to gripe. I actually like the NCEP page. By looping it and then "stopping", you can then toggle through the run with your arrow keys. I'm glad I discovered that otherwise I'd have hated it. But--while I love the 3 hour intervals, why does it still show qpf as 6 hour ones? Really screws up your perspective. Back to the Thursday night event--it's possible that some of us might be able to letigimately have a need to shovel. Since we're not going to go into a perpetural cold, I think the over/under 3" rule will work. I don't use the NCEP site, I liked the old version better when i did use it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Ride it until proven wrong repeatedly Nahh by 0z I'll be in love with the GGEM or something. I was just reading through the posts this afternoon and chuckling how many riding the ECM this morning were now saying it's holding the energy back in the SW so it must be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nahh by 0z I'll be in love with the GGEM or something. I was just reading through the posts this afternoon and chuckling how many riding the ECM this morning were now saying it's holding the energy back in the SW so it must be wrong. Well, The GGEM must be wrong too as it was very similar to the 12z Euro, All the models are wrong when they don't show snow, I would still ride the Euro no matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't use the NCEP site, I liked the old version better when i did use it though Initally, i hated this one. But I changed my tune when I learned I could use the arrows to advance a "stopped" loop. 29.0/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Initally, i hated this one. But I changed my tune when I learned I could use the arrows to advance a "stopped" loop. 29.0/11 Can you do it with the mouse wheel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NCEP's held up while they scramble to recalibrate and re-run those extended frames to remove the huge storm and wanted pattern change .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Phew...I can sleep better now. Rest easy my friend, there will be snow here in the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Initally, i hated this one. But I changed my tune when I learned I could use the arrows to advance a "stopped" loop. 29.0/11 Me too...I've learned to like the NCEP page because of the looping abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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