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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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tough to say...just based on the way the thermal profile behaves - it's relatively torched going into it, crashes colder, and then warms as soon as the event passes - i'm guessing it both dynamically cools a bit and wet-bulbs.

Yeah I noticed the same thing. When those higher UVVs move through E MA crashes to 33-34F and then jump back up to that 36F area as they move out. Then well into the 40s Fri afternoon to melt a lot of it. :axe:
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NAM is an AWT for many of us..and you gotta like this from BOX..overhand tossing a handful

SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...

GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC

RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS REMAINS FAST OUTLIER WITH WRN

CENTRAL CONUS TROF QUICKLY SLIDING E AS A WEAK WAVE WITH LOW PRES

WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE

ECMWF SOLN HOWEVER...WHICH IS MORE ROBUST PATTERN SHIFT WITH

STRONGER TROF LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SFC LOW

CROSSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS

WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS SOLN SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF

SNOW OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE.

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NAM is an AWT for many of us..and you gotta like this from BOX..overhand tossing a handful

SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...

GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC

RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS REMAINS FAST OUTLIER WITH WRN

CENTRAL CONUS TROF QUICKLY SLIDING E AS A WEAK WAVE WITH LOW PRES

WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE

ECMWF SOLN HOWEVER...WHICH IS MORE ROBUST PATTERN SHIFT WITH

STRONGER TROF LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SFC LOW

CROSSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS

WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS SOLN SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF

SNOW OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SNE.

Probably did not see euro or ensembles.

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Yeah I noticed the same thing. When those higher UVVs move through E MA crashes to 33-34F and then jump back up to that 36F area as they move out. Then well into the 40s Fri afternoon to melt a lot of it. :axe:

i haven't gone through and done a pt by pt sounding analysis but i'm guessing a big chunk of the BL in a lot of the area must be like borderline 1C..and maybe has a layer of decently dry air in there. the difference between 06z and 12z is pretty funny...the entire region cools.

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This could be an epic fail from 5 days out for the GEFS. I'm just hoping the euro calms down a bit, but this pattern would argue otherwise. There is still a lot of uncertainty, though so it will take another 48 hrs out potentially.

Remember the storm two weeks ago that really looked like an OTS solution that ended up being a NYS/CNE/NNE threat.

well nam is getting juicer for friday. for me though in southern nh still only very light snow probably just snow showers

Yeah--sucks on the qpf for those above Rt 2.

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These models an an emotional roller coaster! re: Xmas... GFS a non existent low, ECM perfect for me, but too close for the Megalopolis, GGEM snow to rain for everyone but PF and OL.

So it should calm the nerves if we can get snow cover Friday....

I actually think it flips to snow pretty quickly for just about everyone.

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The nam wasn't as good as I first thought...but could definitely cause some problems with the morning commute inland if it played out like the 18z nam showed. Like Brian said, everything will be melted quickly though as temps rise over 40F after 15z and don't fall below freezing until around 00z.

I wouldn't worry too much about that yet. There will be some CAA as the system passes, but maybe some clouds and spits of -SN/-RA can linger with a little inverted troughiness hanging back. Then again maybe you will downslope and get some breaks of sun and torch some of the snow off. If I was you I'd just take any snow I can get at this point and worry about the melt off later. It isn't as if we're in a sustained wintry pattern to pile up the snowpack anyways. :)
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