Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Mainly rain for you verbatim... but some mood flakes at the end I think. ahaha....lol, oh man - i think you get such a kick out of inserting the proverbial ice pick into the blimps of dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro not a bad run for interior SNE above I-84 corridor with regards to 12/25-26. Berks, Monads, and NNE would do well, especially in light of the lingering deformation, which could keep the snow going into Monday if this run were to verify verbatim. In addition, it looks like we get into a NW flow upslope regime on the backside with low level moisture and lake effect, which could give some bonus to the west facing areas that get robbed during the easterly flow portion of the event. I also like a 1-3" or 2-4" deal for the Berks above 1K Friday morning. As such, I like the chances of a white Xmas in this neck of the woods. I'll always focus on the first event (regardless of lighter) as it's much more likely to verify than 120 hours. A bird in the hand...... 35.0/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'd take the Euro even if there was mixing here. It def snows a good bit on the front end. Yes...for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Good lord, I would say that would be enough to whiten the ground. Now I just need the GFS to come back.. At 132hrs out it does not mean much, If it still there by 12z thurs i will be more interested, To many things can go wrong as we are seeing on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ahaha....lol, oh man - i think you get such a kick out of inserting the proverbial ice pick into the blimps of dreams. Sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This thread has been great..lol. It certainly has, I like the changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro shows another coastal near by on the 30th. and the christmas storm looks potent 988 milibar low in gulf of maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I moved the LR stuff back out into the pattern change thread again. I think that's the 2nd straight day I instigated that talk in this thread. They should demote me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro shows another coastal near by on the 30th. A nice rainstorm to clean the salt off of the vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 After the 12/25-6 system there's alot of leftover moisture. Seems to be the new mantra with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A nice rainstorm to clean the salt off of the vehicles. You should invite Kevin up. He'll do it for you out of disgust and you won't have to wait for the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A nice rainstorm to clean the salt off of the vehicles. yes it does look warm but in a good location! just need to get a cold high to our north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sometimes you are my hero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A nice rainstorm to clean the salt off of the vehicles. You have been on a roll here lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yes it does look warm but in a good location! just need to get a cold high to our north! Yeah...there's been so many of those this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 you are my hero No reason to get excited about a storm that probably won't happen is my mantra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You have been on a roll here lately.. I'm in a chipper mood. At this point I'm not even upset with the pattern...I'm more or less laughing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm in a chipper mood. At this point I'm not even upset with the pattern...I'm more or less laughing at it. Insanity?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm in a chipper mood. At this point I'm not even upset with the pattern...I'm more or less laughing at it. I agree, Seeing all the other options are terminal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My Met buddy just sent me the equivalent of a Euro MOS breakdown for the next week - pretty interesting numbers of ORH: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: FIT LAT= 42.55 LON= -71.75 ELE= 348 12Z DEC20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.3 -7.2 1018 73 6 0.00 547 533 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.5 -6.3 1021 39 4 0.00 550 533 WED 00Z 21-DEC -2.0 -4.6 1023 51 2 0.00 555 536 WED 06Z 21-DEC -2.6 -3.1 1022 64 2 0.00 558 541 WED 12Z 21-DEC 1.0 0.3 1019 84 89 0.00 560 545 WED 18Z 21-DEC 6.5 5.1 1014 96 99 0.02 561 550 THU 00Z 22-DEC 9.7 8.2 1007 99 94 0.19 559 554 THU 06Z 22-DEC 11.2 6.3 1003 98 77 0.05 551 548 THU 12Z 22-DEC 7.7 3.7 1011 95 20 0.00 559 550 THU 18Z 22-DEC 9.6 0.9 1016 66 18 0.00 561 548 FRI 00Z 23-DEC 4.1 0.5 1020 83 17 0.00 562 546 FRI 06Z 23-DEC 3.4 -1.9 1020 86 94 0.03 559 543 FRI 12Z 23-DEC 1.4 -2.9 1020 99 96 0.21 556 540 FRI 18Z 23-DEC 4.7 -3.8 1020 76 84 0.01 554 539 SAT 00Z 24-DEC 2.8 -5.7 1022 78 97 0.01 551 533 SAT 06Z 24-DEC -1.4 -6.7 1024 75 59 0.01 545 526 SAT 12Z 24-DEC -2.5 -8.2 1027 75 5 0.00 546 525 SAT 18Z 24-DEC 2.3 -10.1 1027 49 58 0.00 545 523 SUN 00Z 25-DEC -3.5 -10.1 1030 72 5 0.00 556 532 SUN 06Z 25-DEC -3.7 -9.5 1031 69 1 0.00 557 533 SUN 12Z 25-DEC -2.2 -7.5 1029 67 44 0.00 557 534 SUN 18Z 25-DEC 2.2 -5.6 1023 73 94 0.01 556 537 MON 00Z 26-DEC 0.7 -2.9 1014 99 98 0.27 554 542 MON 06Z 26-DEC 0.7 -0.9 1001 98 96 0.50 545 545 MON 12Z 26-DEC 0.5 -2.1 996 95 97 0.16 534 537 MON 18Z 26-DEC 1.9 -4.0 994 86 98 0.06 526 531 TUE 00Z 27-DEC 0.5 -7.0 1000 82 73 0.01 526 526 TUE 06Z 27-DEC -5.3 -8.7 1005 84 75 0.00 525 522 Given the synoptics of the storm track et al, that marginal to less than 0.0 C 850 would DEFINITELY reflect a partial thickness supportive of snow in the ORH-FIT-CON axis. Not sure about the Coastal Plain, but since Ray lives there probably less...sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah...there's been so many of those this year. need to stay positive its bound to change at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No reason to get excited about a storm that probably won't happen is my mantra. ditto, but where i live that means you never get excited. still i hope for some snow up there while im in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Insanity?? I think the good fortune of the Pats and B's are lessening the blow as well. A Pats 1-and-out and a B's rut along with a continued disaster January may leave me banning random people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the good fortune of the Pats and B's are lessening the blow as well. A Pats 1-and-out and a B's rut along with a continued disaster January may leave me banning random people. Agreed. I'm just hoping I'm able to get an inch or two through Saturday to bring my spirits up. You would think in all the years that I've endured awful December's, I would be fine...but this whole month has bummed me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Congrats to the interior hills and north, should be a fantastic period of winter weather, some snow and not bitter cold so outside activities will be a blast. Looking forward to the cold rain down this way, actually not even chilly on friday looks like mid to upper 40s here. No reason to bet against this pattern, 98% of the time its been wagons nw and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the good fortune of the Pats and B's are lessening the blow as well. A Pats 1-and-out and a B's rut along with a continued disaster January may leave me banning random people. All good points, I think a lot of folks may end up feeling the same way, We kind of known that dec was going to be tough but if we lose Jan, There maybe know one left to ban after all the suicides.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Agreed. I'm just hoping I'm able to get an inch or two through Saturday to bring my spirits up. You would think in all the years that I've endured awful December's, I would be fine...but this whole month has bummed me out. This pattern has been beyond brutal, and if it becomes clear by thursday am that I will go the entire period without a flake through next monday, and things look warm going into the new year. Well, then I hope I torch down here like no other torch before, I would rather it be 58 and sunny in jan and feb then 47 with light rain its beyond useless. We have been spoiled rotten, always a chance this was coming, I just hope those to my north can luck out and that the ski industry has a solid jan feb and march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This pattern has been beyond brutal, and if it becomes clear by thursday am that I will go the entire period without a flake through next monday, and things look warm going into the new year. Well, then I hope I torch down here like no other torch before, I would rather it be 58 and sunny in jan and feb then 47 with light rain its beyond useless. We have been spoiled rotten, always a chance this was coming, I just hope those to my north can luck out and that the ski industry has a solid jan feb and march. It looks so warm I've cancelled my mexican cruise in lieu of a cruise on boston harbor. Mucho savings. Let's really hope we get a good shot friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 All good points, I think a lot of folks may end up feeling the same way, We kind of known that dec was going to be tough but if we lose Jan, There maybe know one left to ban after all the suicides.. I'm confident we'll be in the opposite pattern come summer. Dreary days one after the other of low 60's, clouds and fog. Joe will chime in that it's actually 70 in Fairfield and that he can't keep up with his lawns. Pete will swear that he had some mangled flakes. Kevin will comment on how good it is for running and how good it is for putting down the Lesco. Will won't visit the board at all. Scott will chime in about all the VFR conditions and flight delays. Tip will start a thread on some circulation that no one has ever heard of that might suggest a white Christmas in 2012. Jerry will talk about how all the squirrels food is moldy from the damp conditions and is really at a loss for how the winter will shape up. Phil will lament how the weather is hurting the Capes economy. The rest of us will have been banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro not a bad run for interior SNE above I-84 corridor with regards to 12/25-26. Berks, Monads, and NNE would do well, especially in light of the lingering deformation, which could keep the snow going into Monday if this run were to verify verbatim. In addition, it looks like we get into a NW flow upslope regime on the backside with low level moisture and lake effect, which could give some bonus to the west facing areas that get robbed during the easterly flow portion of the event. I also like a 1-3" or 2-4" deal for the Berks above 1K Friday morning. As such, I like the chances of a white Xmas in this neck of the woods. I agree, should be another GC white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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