CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well I stand by the GFS being too flat, but hopefully we can see something in the middle. With no blocking, I think the risk is closer to the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS lost it, GGEM warm rain, EURO a nice hit. Gonna be in Albany Christmas day, liking my odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think with such little cold to work with on the backside of this storm we'll have to hedge warmer based on the track. The Ocean is still a toch and there's just a total lack of good cold west of this thing. And a high well east of us and retreating. Nice to look at but the Euro has had some issues at D5 with storms...we've had at least one major false positive at this range and a few others that were close. More focused on storm one which should dump immeasurable snows on most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 We're still 5+ days out...that's what sucks about model watching in a lousy pattern. When things are going well we have ongoing events and when they're done we have another one that pops up on the radar a few days out. When we're snow starved we start looking for chances a week out and weenies live and die every 6 hours with the shifts in the models. How many days have we been tracking this potential now? 2 or 3? By Friday this storm will probably be giving rain to Vim Toot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'd take the Euro even if there was mixing here. It def snows a good bit on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's a decent couple of inches for some, esp near and north of the Pike? Congrats NNE on this run. Well, one of two won't be bad. Not ruling out Christmas yet...... 34.5/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, one of two won't be bad. Not ruling out Christmas yet...... 34.5/16 No you are fine on the Euro. I'd feel pretty good if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'd take the Euro even if there was mixing here. It def snows a good bit on the front end. Looks close to an isothermal snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No QPF fetish here. I'll take that right where it is. Nice hang back deformation snows too. Don't need a jackpot just want snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm not surprised the GFS lost it, but I can't believe that there's really only 1 GEFS member showing an Xmas hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 EURO really hanging back a lot of energy in that cutoff over Mexico at 144 hrs. With it's known biases, I'm a little bit worried about the exact evolution depicted on today's run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No you are fine on the Euro. I'd feel pretty good if I were you. Cool. Now I have to hope it stays looking good for 5 days. Piece of cake in the wacky world of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well a good chunk of the interior would probably DS on the euro before mixing so that's good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don't need a jackpot just want snow on the ground... Taken literally, I think we'd both be near the maximum amounts from this system outside of the higher terrain. Too far out to worry about that though. At this point I'd take 1-2" of cement with rain ponding on top of it instead of seeing bare ground all of Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 EURO really hanging back a lot of energy in that cutoff over Mexico at 144 hrs. With it's known biases, I'm a little bit worried about the exact evolution depicted on today's run... I'm pretty sure we're seeing the Euro bias come into play here which is why I take no stock in the Xmas day solution at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Snow on snow with a few inches Fri and a few more Sunday. Merry Christmas Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The euro may be on the extreme end of one side, but I don't buy the GFS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Snow on snow with a few inches Fri and a few more Sunday. Merry Christmas Kev Can we resurrect your posts from 36-72 hours ago? How your tide has turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can we resurrect your posts from 36-72 hours ago? How your tide has turned. There are disorders that describe that behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 wundergorund clown maps are actually better than they have been the past couple runs south of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Taken literally, I think we'd both be near the maximum amounts from this system outside of the higher terrain. Too far out to worry about that though. At this point I'd take 1-2" of cement with rain ponding on top of it instead of seeing bare ground all of Christmas day. Definitely to far out, Just a few inches in the end will do, We don't see many brown Christmas's and we don't need another one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 dear god make this run stop. i'd like them to reinitialize and run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro not a bad run for interior SNE above I-84 corridor with regards to 12/25-26. Berks, Monads, and NNE would do well, especially in light of the lingering deformation, which could keep the snow going into Monday if this run were to verify verbatim. In addition, it looks like we get into a NW flow upslope regime on the backside with low level moisture and lake effect, which could give some bonus to the west facing areas that get robbed during the easterly flow portion of the event. I also like a 1-3" or 2-4" deal for the Berks above 1K Friday morning. As such, I like the chances of a white Xmas in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Definitely to far out, Just a few inches in the end will do, We don't see many brown Christmas's and we don't need another one Agreed, I just want an inch or two out of this. More will just be a bonus. But, to be greedy, how much snow is the Euro actually showing for our hood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Agreed, I just want an inch or two out of this. More will just be a bonus. But, to be greedy, how much snow is the Euro actually showing for our hood? qpf looks to be 1.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 qpf looks to be 1.00" Good lord, I would say that would be enough to whiten the ground. Now I just need the GFS to come back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hard to tell from the ewall 24hr maps, but the Ukie appears to be well SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This thread has been great..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hard to tell from the ewall 24hr maps, but the Ukie appears to be well SE of the BM. you know what will happen...the euro will cave offshore for the next couple of days...then on friday or saturday this thing'll be back and running into the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.