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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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The GFS kind of goes along with the narrow snow idea. It also tries to dryslot SNE by 12z Friday, but by then...a lot of the QPF is wasted on rain or mix except for near and north of I-90. Just saying what it shows.

Yup. Fortunately for me, it's showing a little love north of the Pike for snow. Of course, what's better for some is disappointing for others. I'm sure we'll be seeing additional shifts.

34.2/18

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Would the Euro ens or op Euro have a better shot at delivering X-mas day snow?

I think the ensembles would since they were further east and colder. But for people like Rick and even MRG/MPM....they probably would not like the ensembles. My guess is the euro op may be too amped up, but the GFS op is too flat right now. It's a mess at 500mb so no wonder models are struggling. I thought earlier a compromise between the EC op and ensembles made sense, but we'll see how it looks in a couple of hours.

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Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS.

Those Wright Weather graphics (WXP) are the best. I think we have a shot of Friday snow....fingers crossed for the northerly bleed to do it's dirty work. After that, mood flakes on and off through Saturday?

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Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS.

Yeah...I thought the GFS was actually a lot more promising for up here Fri. Nothing huge, but enough to make things white.

You must have the EC ens QPF probs by now, but the mean I have has 24hr QPF of 0.25"+ for all of SNE south of a DDH-CON-PWM line valid 6z the 26th. The 6 hourlies were definitely well SE of the op though.

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Those Wright Weather graphics (WXP) are the best. I think we have a shot of Friday snow....fingers crossed for the northerly bleed to do it's dirty work. After that, mood flakes on and off through Saturday?

The thing I'm a little worried about, is how we cool and how much precip is left. I could see us ending as snow and only getting a crappy coating. If that happens, we'll have to hope the euro and NAM are onto something with lighter snows Friday Night into Saturday. It also shows you the mid levels are toasty near Kev.

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Yeah...I thought the GFS was actually a lot more promising for up here Fri. Nothing huge, but enough to make things white.

You must have the EC ens QPF probs by now, but the mean I have has 24hr QPF of 0.25"+ for all of SNE south of a DDH-CON-PWM line valid 6z the 26th. The 6 hourlies were definitely well SE of the op though.

Euro hinted at the same thing as well, so I think you have a decent shot.

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Thankfully the GFS is "a terrible model" and "no one in the right mind would ever use it"

Yes but lots of people were talking about the GGEM which became a total miss on the 12z too.

So this one is cooked barring the Euro.

This was the run where I figured the medium range models locked in as we got inside of about 84 and the first two dudded it huge.

Tebow fail.

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