OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't think it will show much of a low at all, just based on how it looks at 500mb. shortwave that moves from SE Canada seems to ruin the party. The slowing down was a step toward the euro though. I think the storm will happen...I don't mind the GFS showing shredding at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS kind of goes along with the narrow snow idea. It also tries to dryslot SNE by 12z Friday, but by then...a lot of the QPF is wasted on rain or mix except for near and north of I-90. Just saying what it shows. Yup. Fortunately for me, it's showing a little love north of the Pike for snow. Of course, what's better for some is disappointing for others. I'm sure we'll be seeing additional shifts. 34.2/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yup. Fortunately for me, it's showing a little love north of the Pike for snow. Of course, what's better for some is disappointing for others. I'm sure we'll be seeing additional shifts. 34.2/18 i'd be optimistic if i were in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 shortwave that moves from SE Canada seems to ruin the party. The slowing down was a step toward the euro though. I think the storm will happen...I don't mind the GFS showing shredding at this range. I agree...I've seen the GFS do this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol @ gfs for sunday. just a quiet cool day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol @ gfs for sunday. just a quiet cool day. I would take that over liquid any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the GFS is too flat on this run. It has no semblance of this. It would give more credence to the euro ensembles though, since they aren't like the euro op run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the GFS is too flat on this run. It has no semblance of this. It would give more credence to the euro ensembles though, since they aren't like the euro op run at all. Would the Euro ens or op Euro have a better shot at delivering X-mas day snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 I see the Christmas s/w has completely vaporized on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I see the Christmas s/w has completely vaporized on the GFS. Thats not a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Would the Euro ens or op Euro have a better shot at delivering X-mas day snow? I think the ensembles would since they were further east and colder. But for people like Rick and even MRG/MPM....they probably would not like the ensembles. My guess is the euro op may be too amped up, but the GFS op is too flat right now. It's a mess at 500mb so no wonder models are struggling. I thought earlier a compromise between the EC op and ensembles made sense, but we'll see how it looks in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol @ gfs for sunday. just a quiet cool day. LOL at the GFS. Looks like a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is pretty much all rain on Friday south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Question is could this be just the gfs losing the storm 4 to 5 days out only to bring it back 2 or 3 days before? really depresing if we can't get at least a little snow for the holiday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS losing a storm 5-6 days out? Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is pretty much all rain on Friday south of the Pike. Yeah it's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Question is could this be just the gfs losing the storm 4 to 5 days out only to bring it back 2 or 3 days before? really depresing if we can't get at least a little snow for the holiday! Xmas may fail, but maybe we can squeak out an inch on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Xmas may fail, but maybe we can squeak out an inch on Friday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Xmas may fail, but maybe we can squeak out an inch on Friday. Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS. Nice cooling over elev areas even into NW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thankfully the GFS is "a terrible model" and "no one in the right mind would ever use it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS. Those Wright Weather graphics (WXP) are the best. I think we have a shot of Friday snow....fingers crossed for the northerly bleed to do it's dirty work. After that, mood flakes on and off through Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Despite the QPF, models hang the deformation area up your way, so I think you would do better than shown on the GFS. Yeah...I thought the GFS was actually a lot more promising for up here Fri. Nothing huge, but enough to make things white.You must have the EC ens QPF probs by now, but the mean I have has 24hr QPF of 0.25"+ for all of SNE south of a DDH-CON-PWM line valid 6z the 26th. The 6 hourlies were definitely well SE of the op though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah it's warm. Maybe a mangled flake at the end? This isn't exactly a QPF thumper so starting off warm means game over for most of us. Fail, fail, fail, fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Great..now I might have a brown Christmas..I am just a bit too far north for Fridays storm, and anyone guess what Xmas will do, maybe nothing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Those Wright Weather graphics (WXP) are the best. I think we have a shot of Friday snow....fingers crossed for the northerly bleed to do it's dirty work. After that, mood flakes on and off through Saturday? The thing I'm a little worried about, is how we cool and how much precip is left. I could see us ending as snow and only getting a crappy coating. If that happens, we'll have to hope the euro and NAM are onto something with lighter snows Friday Night into Saturday. It also shows you the mid levels are toasty near Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah...I thought the GFS was actually a lot more promising for up here Fri. Nothing huge, but enough to make things white. You must have the EC ens QPF probs by now, but the mean I have has 24hr QPF of 0.25"+ for all of SNE south of a DDH-CON-PWM line valid 6z the 26th. The 6 hourlies were definitely well SE of the op though. Euro hinted at the same thing as well, so I think you have a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Squirrels lives are resting on the next week's wx imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thankfully the GFS is "a terrible model" and "no one in the right mind would ever use it" Yes but lots of people were talking about the GGEM which became a total miss on the 12z too. So this one is cooked barring the Euro. This was the run where I figured the medium range models locked in as we got inside of about 84 and the first two dudded it huge. Tebow fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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