CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BOX is awfully warm....40s for SNH on Saturday? Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ORH I think would definitely be snow on Friday morning regardless of how far the modeled 32F line is away to the north. -3c 850s in late December with a low passing to the south should be alright...areas further south would have some problems. friday's tricky. i'd think ORH is OK given their latitude and elevation. the BL for a lot of the area is pretty iffy as currently progged but there's also some dry air to work with going in...so maybe that helps some places out a bit? maybe the kind of thing where the marginal locations see light precip being a 36-38F rain but steadier precip a 32-34F snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Based on the 12z NAM, I'm still thinking there's a narrow strip right along the Pike that will get a couple inches. Drops off to the north as the high prevents much moisture to work in. Drops off below the CT/MA line due to prolonged rain/mix. Brookfield FTW? 33.3/19 yeah, I see this as me and Ray watching the radar, looks like snow is falling but all I have is Virga .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 23rd for me. The NAM has S winds during the entire event. You can see the convergence zone associated with the sfc front way up into S NH. Hopefully it's entirely blowing that aspect of the system. It is in the NAM's la-la-land range right now. Everyone to the south of I90 and probably SNH needs to hope the NAM is bogus. It's just way too warm for snow in event one. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The boundary layer will take it's time to cool, so Friday very well might be rain to a little sleet and snow to end, but it will be a race to see how it goes. It may be something where we have a 20 mile wide ribbon of snow where someone gets a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm gonna go out on a limb right now and guess that my aggregate snowfall from this entire $hit show will be 1". I'm with you on that. Maybe you get more than me... 1.001" Maybe Norfolk, CT gets 2" or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BOX is awfully warm....40s for SNH on Saturday? Doubt it. i wouldn't be surprised if a big chunk of the region is AOB 32 on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The boundary layer will take it's time to cool, so Friday very well might be rain to a little sleep and snow to end, but it will be a race to see how it goes. It may be something where we have a 20 mile wide ribbon of snow where someone gets a couple of inches. Boring to be sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looks more and more likely snow will fall here this week. Nice.Fight the good fight Blizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The boundary layer will take it's time to cool, so Friday very well might be rain to a little sleet and snow to end, but it will be a race to see how it goes. It may be something where we have a 20 mile wide ribbon of snow where someone gets a couple of inches. Most likely right over Kevin's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 I hope the 12Z runs bring back the Xmas event. That would be some joke if both events find a way to whiff.. LOL Boring to be sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Everyone to the south of I90 and probably SNH needs to hope the NAM is bogus. It's just way too warm for snow in event one. JMHO. I think the profile will be okay south of the MA-VT/west NH border. But for most of that area there will just be a light coating I think. 33.7/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Most likely right over Kevin's house. I think maybe along the Pike near Will has the best shot, but way too early to get cute with specifics. I'll just be happy to see frozen..could care less at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM 2m temps are too warm for many but one has to wonder the veracity given the cold HP and the "pressing" it is doing. As Scott says....let's get some flakes in here. NAM has a nice inverted trof over us...Ray's favorite....and between all I'll hope to pile up an inch. if not, I'll pay for 2 nice dinners. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM 2m temps are too warm for many but one has to wonder the veracity given the cold HP and the "pressing" it is doing. As Scott says....let's get some flakes in here. NAM has a nice inverted trof over us...Ray's favorite....and between all I'll hope to pile up an inch. if not, I'll pay for 2 nice dinners. We'll see. i think you stand a chance xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i think you stand a chance xmas eve. Yes I think we can get an inch or more on the front end at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly don't know what MOS is smoking. I wish you could put money down and bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can we get some ideas out there by those that care about areas of SNE they think will have 1 inch ofsnow or more OTG by X-mas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly don't know what MOS is smoking. I wish you could put money down and bet on it. Persistence? Even climo would do better than what it's putting out (MET). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I honestly don't know what MOS is smoking. I wish you could put money down and bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Persistence? Even climo would do better than what it's putting out (MET). I think that is part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its interesting the GFS (not the 12z ... haven't seen that yet) is so much cooler than the nam on friday morning...usually the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 its interesting the GFS (not the 12z ... haven't seen that yet) is so much cooler than the nam on friday morning...usually the other way around The NAM seems to keep the cold behind that true polar front that comes down from NNE. It has two cold fronts in essence. Sometimes that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The NAM seems to keep the cold behind that true polar front that comes down from NNE. It has two cold fronts in essence. Sometimes that happens. you can see the NNE flow taking hold at the very end of the NAM run...would maybe be signaling something for the nighttime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is a little juicier, but a little warmer for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I haven't the time to parse through the last 5 pages of this thread, so apologies if the intonations of this message contradict anyone's recent optimism, but overall …the 00z suite of runs did everything imaginable to suck relative to potential to put it bluntly. Unbelievable. For the spirit of comiseration, disappointment appears to be a process onto its self and the evidence for that is overhwhelming at times. Not sure why, but that’s been a kind of theme for the last 45 days. The physics of the system seems to just be stuck in a kind of deconstructive wave interference on all levels/scales, such that nothing can happen; everything gets damped and muted from middle and extended ranges once originally signaled excitement gets into nearer terms. Maybe that’s the price of the current ENSO being weakly negative? I dunno – there are years in the annuls that were weakly negative SST’s in the Pac NINO 3.4 key region, and were block-buster winters; obviously there is more to it than ENSO (don't tell NCEP that though). In any event, the dreamy doe-y-eyed just in time Holiday snows of Xmass Eve were systematically obliterated from the charts as though a great force were laughing like thunder. The runs now argue for a late Xmass Day proper, or Boxing Day thing, but in keeping with the above seasonal persistence to deconstruct storm chances, I gotta wonder if that’s all bullshister too. The teleconnectors are not overwhelmingly signaling and never were, really. In the teleconnections we trust! That said … yeah, okay, so the PNA is slightly positive and does spike to almost +1 around Xmass Eve through the end of the month, so there is at least some signal there - granted. The AO is interesting though. It’s not a teleconnector for cyclogen per se, but it does help set the table. The last 5 nights in a row, the GEF mean has been trying to lift the index heavily positive, but the next nightly initialization of the domain summarily rolls on in even more negative, exposing the GEF mean has having its head up a warm biased butt. Not sure why CPC is doing this, but their prog page is out of sync with said initial status'. Currently the index is registering -.25 SD (or so), a total decline of over 3 SD in 10 days using the verificaiton page - if true, that’s gotta be getting colder somewhere in the middle latitudes. Granted, without a favorable U-Mean vector wind anomaly in the PV – such as is the current case – there is no reason to assume that it will keeping going or stay negative… These correlations are never 1::1; things sometimes do take place opposing statistics. Such was the case last year. There wasn’t any SSW, or even really much of an insert of warming in the stratosphere PV in general, and the preceding QBO was westerly …etc. Yet the AO in every GEF member drilled to -3SD or more around the 15th of Dec or so. The result was a colder than normal month for most of the U.S. above 40N (curious how this affected other parts of the Globe). That cold and –AO assisted storminess and defined an active January to say the least. When I was a kid, I used ignore the weather altogether if/when that airs seemed stuck in these ruts of disgust. Then, things would change. The weather’s our beyoch, and she no likey being ignored – HAHA. More seriously ... the QBO did recently flip easterly. I am not sure of any lags however before the correlation on the AO is realized. I assume there must be because the cross-correlation tables at CDC shows a linear correlation that is weak - only .10 CC for Dec, that does impress to .4 for Jan, only to fall to 0.0 for Feb. Yet, the connection is heavily discussed. Either there is a lag, such that the linear relationship is not representing the connection, or the en masse collective enterprise of Meteorology is over-doing it. Not sure which. One thing I do find interesting is that the solar activity has reduced to passivity compared to the more active period of late summer; if the AO observation page is more correct than the prognostic page (CPC), that's interesting. Does anyone know of any ancillary sources for AO?? CDC doesn't apparently calculate the domain. As to the teleconnectors, things will have to eventually change, whethre it does so this year or waits until next season notwithswtanding. I know Ryan's already opted to waiting this one out and hoping on 2012/2013 - Myan calendar allowing ... nyuk nyuk. Unfortunately, other than a modest PNA signal in there for said 24th through the 31st, there's very little or nothing indicating the winter weather enthusiasts preferred signal for the time being. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS kind of goes along with the narrow snow idea. It also tries to dryslot SNE by 12z Friday, but by then...a lot of the QPF is wasted on rain or mix except for near and north of I-90. Just saying what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is definitely caving to the euro with the the dec. 25th thing...500mb trough gets "stuck" in the SW far more than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is definitely caving to the euro with the the dec. 25th thing...500mb trough gets "stuck" in the SW far more than the previous run. I don't think it will show much of a low at all, just based on how it looks at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It does keep an inv trough just to our east on Saturday so it looks like the euro in that regard. It looks like a no show for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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