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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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ORH I think would definitely be snow on Friday morning regardless of how far the modeled 32F line is away to the north. -3c 850s in late December with a low passing to the south should be alright...areas further south would have some problems.

friday's tricky. i'd think ORH is OK given their latitude and elevation.

the BL for a lot of the area is pretty iffy as currently progged but there's also some dry air to work with going in...so maybe that helps some places out a bit?

maybe the kind of thing where the marginal locations see light precip being a 36-38F rain but steadier precip a 32-34F snow?

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Based on the 12z NAM, I'm still thinking there's a narrow strip right along the Pike that will get a couple inches. Drops off to the north as the high prevents much moisture to work in. Drops off below the CT/MA line due to prolonged rain/mix. Brookfield FTW?

33.3/19

yeah, I see this as me and Ray watching the radar, looks like snow is falling but all I have is Virga ..

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23rd for me.

The NAM has S winds during the entire event. You can see the convergence zone associated with the sfc front way up into S NH. Hopefully it's entirely blowing that aspect of the system. It is in the NAM's la-la-land range right now.

Everyone to the south of I90 and probably SNH needs to hope the NAM is bogus. It's just way too warm for snow in event one. JMHO.

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NAM 2m temps are too warm for many but one has to wonder the veracity given the cold HP and the "pressing" it is doing. As Scott says....let's get some flakes in here. NAM has a nice inverted trof over us...Ray's favorite....and between all I'll hope to pile up an inch. if not, I'll pay for 2 nice dinners. We'll see.

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NAM 2m temps are too warm for many but one has to wonder the veracity given the cold HP and the "pressing" it is doing. As Scott says....let's get some flakes in here. NAM has a nice inverted trof over us...Ray's favorite....and between all I'll hope to pile up an inch. if not, I'll pay for 2 nice dinners. We'll see.

i think you stand a chance xmas eve.

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I haven't the time to parse through the last 5 pages of this thread, so apologies if the intonations of this message contradict anyone's recent optimism, but overall …the 00z suite of runs did everything imaginable to suck relative to potential to put it bluntly. Unbelievable. For the spirit of comiseration, disappointment appears to be a process onto its self and the evidence for that is overhwhelming at times.

Not sure why, but that’s been a kind of theme for the last 45 days. The physics of the system seems to just be stuck in a kind of deconstructive wave interference on all levels/scales, such that nothing can happen; everything gets damped and muted from middle and extended ranges once originally signaled excitement gets into nearer terms. Maybe that’s the price of the current ENSO being weakly negative? I dunno – there are years in the annuls that were weakly negative SST’s in the Pac NINO 3.4 key region, and were block-buster winters; obviously there is more to it than ENSO (don't tell NCEP that though).

In any event, the dreamy doe-y-eyed just in time Holiday snows of Xmass Eve were systematically obliterated from the charts as though a great force were laughing like thunder. The runs now argue for a late Xmass Day proper, or Boxing Day thing, but in keeping with the above seasonal persistence to deconstruct storm chances, I gotta wonder if that’s all bullshister too. The teleconnectors are not overwhelmingly signaling and never were, really. In the teleconnections we trust! That said … yeah, okay, so the PNA is slightly positive and does spike to almost +1 around Xmass Eve through the end of the month, so there is at least some signal there - granted.

The AO is interesting though. It’s not a teleconnector for cyclogen per se, but it does help set the table. The last 5 nights in a row, the GEF mean has been trying to lift the index heavily positive, but the next nightly initialization of the domain summarily rolls on in even more negative, exposing the GEF mean has having its head up a warm biased butt. Not sure why CPC is doing this, but their prog page is out of sync with said initial status'. Currently the index is registering -.25 SD (or so), a total decline of over 3 SD in 10 days using the verificaiton page - if true, that’s gotta be getting colder somewhere in the middle latitudes. Granted, without a favorable U-Mean vector wind anomaly in the PV – such as is the current case – there is no reason to assume that it will keeping going or stay negative… These correlations are never 1::1; things sometimes do take place opposing statistics. Such was the case last year. There wasn’t any SSW, or even really much of an insert of warming in the stratosphere PV in general, and the preceding QBO was westerly …etc. Yet the AO in every GEF member drilled to -3SD or more around the 15th of Dec or so. The result was a colder than normal month for most of the U.S. above 40N (curious how this affected other parts of the Globe). That cold and –AO assisted storminess and defined an active January to say the least.

When I was a kid, I used ignore the weather altogether if/when that airs seemed stuck in these ruts of disgust. Then, things would change. The weather’s our beyoch, and she no likey being ignored – HAHA.

More seriously ... the QBO did recently flip easterly. I am not sure of any lags however before the correlation on the AO is realized. I assume there must be because the cross-correlation tables at CDC shows a linear correlation that is weak - only .10 CC for Dec, that does impress to .4 for Jan, only to fall to 0.0 for Feb. Yet, the connection is heavily discussed. Either there is a lag, such that the linear relationship is not representing the connection, or the en masse collective enterprise of Meteorology is over-doing it. Not sure which. One thing I do find interesting is that the solar activity has reduced to passivity compared to the more active period of late summer; if the AO observation page is more correct than the prognostic page (CPC), that's interesting. Does anyone know of any ancillary sources for AO?? CDC doesn't apparently calculate the domain.

As to the teleconnectors, things will have to eventually change, whethre it does so this year or waits until next season notwithswtanding. I know Ryan's already opted to waiting this one out and hoping on 2012/2013 - Myan calendar allowing ... nyuk nyuk. Unfortunately, other than a modest PNA signal in there for said 24th through the 31st, there's very little or nothing indicating the winter weather enthusiasts preferred signal for the time being. Sorry.

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