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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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i'm just saying what the model shows.

Below

Euro looks awfully warm to me. I think a lot of it verbatim would be rain/ugly mix for a good chunk of SNE. The Berkshires do well.

Coupled with a known bias that for whatever reason is being ignored this time (think snow or go home) I'll wait another 24 hours before biting. Persistence pattern for the win.

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Coupled with a known bias that for whatever reason is being ignored this time (think snow or go home) I'll wait another 24 hours before biting. Persistence pattern for the win.

This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain.

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This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain.

careful what you write. sometimes you end up getting unfriendly text messages.

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Some normally nice folks have really turned nasty this week

Posting about warm weather and rain doesn't make someone nasty.

You know me... if there's a reason to get excited I will get excited. But to be fair 1" of slush doesn't whip me into an excited frenzy like some people.

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This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain.

I think if anyone is expecting more than in inch or two combined, then they need to step away from the board.

Of course someone might still end up with 3-4" total if everything breaks right

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This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain.

Exactly.

We do have a 1030ish high squeezing along with the low but it's not really pushing down as much as east. So it's going to take a perfect shot to make it snow to the south.

If the euro is holding back energy even a little too much the timing will be even worse and the low will be through well ahead of the cold "push"....JMHO. We'll see in today's runs.

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Exactly.

We do have a 1030ish high squeezing along with the low but it's not really pushing down as much as east. So it's going to take a perfect shot to make it snow to the south.

If the euro is holding back energy even a little too much the timing will be even worse and the low will be through well ahead of the cold "push"....JMHO. We'll see in today's runs.

one of the reasons why the euro was kinda warm last night was because it was so slow...the high had pushed off the coast by the time the low was near SNE.

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The preceding CAA looks a little better than 6z and it's going to need to be for you guys. The BL on the 6z was putrid.

one of the reasons why the euro was kinda warm last night was because it was so slow...the high had pushed off the coast by the time the low was near SNE.

I'm talking about the 23rd I think you're talking about the 25th? Not sure though. To be honest I haven't looked very closely because I think it's the run today at 12z that'll tell the tale. The 12z NAM is further SE than the 0z by quite a bit already.

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ORH I think would definitely be snow on Friday morning regardless of how far the modeled 32F line is away to the north. -3c 850s in late December with a low passing to the south should be alright...areas further south would have some problems.

yeah, the BL has a bit worried but at this point I will take 1" to whiten the scene a bit, ****, I will drive up west on xmas day with the family to see snow if I have to.

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I'm talking about the 23rd I think you're talking about the 25th? Not sure though. To be honest I haven't looked very closely because I think it's the run today at 12z that'll tell the tale. The 12z NAM is further SE than the 0z by quite a bit already.

23rd for me.

The NAM has S winds during the entire event. You can see the convergence zone associated with the sfc front way up into S NH. Hopefully it's entirely blowing that aspect of the system. It is in the NAM's la-la-land range right now.

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