ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 friday PM/saturday is the kind of set-up that's fun, imo, lots of mood flakes flying. Euro enhanced it over the Cape too on Saturday night. Could be decent there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The euro op still sucks for areas near and east of Kev to BOS on Christmas. it's really mild on that run. i'm not trying to be debbie...it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think it would probably be snow at places like ORH, but yeah it's still putrid with little cold air. huh...i've got 925 0Cs back into C NH, then running SW to the Berks...like +2C contour into ORH/HFD/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro enhanced it over the Cape too on Saturday night. Could be decent there. i think friday is probably liquid for a good chunk of us...at least S of the pike type locations...but then things get better friday evening into saturday evening. would be awesome to snag a bit of accumulation to go into xmas morning with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 huh...i've got 925 0Cs back into C NH, then running SW to the Berks...like +2C contour into ORH/HFD/NYC Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track. It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track. It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east. The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track. It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east. yeah i could see that i suppose...thick column of borderline air. regardless...i'm pinning my hopes on friday night and saturday. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 what?? it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting. Huh??? See HM's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i think friday is probably liquid for a good chunk of us...at least S of the pike type locations...but then things get better friday evening into saturday evening. would be awesome to snag a bit of accumulation to go into xmas morning with. Not here as Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not here as Will said. It could get borderline for N CT if it ends up slightly more robust...mid-level 0C line is flirting with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Huh??? See HM's post i'm just saying what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high. I thought the s/w setup yesterday reminded me a bit of 12/23/07. The vortmax today doesn't look as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I could see Kevin even starting as pingers for a brief period Friday morning..maybe not just him either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I could see Kevin even starting as pingers for a brief period Friday morning..maybe not just him either. I agree..either way I'll havew 1-3 OTG by Sat ..I'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Friday to Monday is so much like 2007-08 starting about 10 days earlier thqt year and having more cold to work with especially for system 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm a little confused by the timing of this Thursday night/Friday deal. My forecast only has precipitation on Thursday night followed by clouds. Is that due to BOX forecasting that the high keeping things to the south? I suspect that's the case--which would bode well for Kev and his CT kin. 31.3/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I could see Kevin even starting as pingers for a brief period Friday morning..maybe not just him either. It'd be nice to see a bit more robust CAA on Thursday. This could be a situation where your latitude up in BOS helps you out some vs some interior areas sw of you....just based on how the ll cold is draining south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Friday to Monday is so much like 2007-08 starting about 10 days earlier thqt year and having more cold to work with especially for system 1. That makes it seem like it's not that much like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 what?? it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting. Haha forget it... the weenie mantra is that as long as you are north of the blue line at H85 (or anywhere near it for that matter) you can count your QPF as inches of snow, and maybe liberally assume 15:1 ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That makes it seem like it's not that much like it. But the setup is similar as are the global indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It would be great to squeeze out some accumulation be it fri or sat going into the holiday...makes a great day that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It would be great to squeeze out some accumulation be it fri or sat going into the holiday...makes a great day that much better. I agree...NAM and GFS look good, esp north of the MA/CT border. But even further south, it's not that bad. EURO looks good for a couple inches too. IMO, we might see this trend juicier just because that's been the trend. Hopefully not juicier and warmer. For round two later Xmas Day...I'll take a compromise between EURO's rainstorm and the GFS's OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 And there you have just that on the ECMWF. The southern s/w doesn't quite phase and instead slingshots northeastward. Beautiful CAD / high pressure too. If this "almost a phase" scenario pans out, I would probably speed the solution up 6-12 hrs. Agreed...Nice snowstorm signalled on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Agreed...Nice snowstorm signalled on the Euro. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 LOL It's what he's saying if you interpret it. At any rate..at least we've got 2 snow events on the plate the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's what he's saying if you interpret it. At any rate..at least we've got 2 snow events on the plate the next 5 days It was more for the fact about how you look for posts to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 anyone know when the last time we had 4 consecutive months deviate this far above the norm...it is astounding. 2001 or 2002 come to mind. This current four-month torch falls a full degree behind Nov 2001-Feb 2002 which is pretty incredible given the anomaly and length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 06z GFS looks great at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hopefully there's a nice slug of steady precip early friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro looks awfully warm to me. I think a lot of it verbatim would be rain/ugly mix for a good chunk of SNE. The Berkshires do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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