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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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Euro enhanced it over the Cape too on Saturday night. Could be decent there.

i think friday is probably liquid for a good chunk of us...at least S of the pike type locations...but then things get better friday evening into saturday evening. would be awesome to snag a bit of accumulation to go into xmas morning with.

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huh...i've got 925 0Cs back into C NH, then running SW to the Berks...like +2C contour into ORH/HFD/NYC

Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

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Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high.

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Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

yeah i could see that i suppose...thick column of borderline air.

regardless...i'm pinning my hopes on friday night and saturday. LOL.

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The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high.

I thought the s/w setup yesterday reminded me a bit of 12/23/07. The vortmax today doesn't look as robust.

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I'm a little confused by the timing of this Thursday night/Friday deal. My forecast only has precipitation on Thursday night followed by clouds. Is that due to BOX forecasting that the high keeping things to the south? I suspect that's the case--which would bode well for Kev and his CT kin.

31.3/21

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I could see Kevin even starting as pingers for a brief period Friday morning..maybe not just him either.

It'd be nice to see a bit more robust CAA on Thursday.

This could be a situation where your latitude up in BOS helps you out some vs some interior areas sw of you....just based on how the ll cold is draining south

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what??

it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting.

Haha forget it... the weenie mantra is that as long as you are north of the blue line at H85 (or anywhere near it for that matter) you can count your QPF as inches of snow, and maybe liberally assume 15:1 ratios too.

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It would be great to squeeze out some accumulation be it fri or sat going into the holiday...makes a great day that much better.

I agree...NAM and GFS look good, esp north of the MA/CT border. But even further south, it's not that bad. EURO looks good for a couple inches too. IMO, we might see this trend juicier just because that's been the trend. Hopefully not juicier and warmer.

For round two later Xmas Day...I'll take a compromise between EURO's rainstorm and the GFS's OTS solution.

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