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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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:lol: 06z GFS just showed the GFS bias of losing a storm at 4-5 days out. I'll take the Euro, thx.

Of course, sometimes it loses a storm because it's actually gone. But no need to fret over that until the 12z runs and the EC.

With respect to Thursday night/Friday, I think this is my most legitimate doubt to date on my perseveration on qpf. The Canadian high is going to win out here. The "haves" with qpf will lack temps (for a good portion of the event), while those who can manage the temps will suffer from qpf issues. The winner for a couple inches IMHO will be the interior areas right along I-90 and north of the MA/CT line. Dries out to the north of there with a progressivley lighter coating, lots of wet south.

34.0/25

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GEFS are def a bit juicier for the 12/23 system. Hopefully this trends into a nice little 2-4 type event, but we'll def be riding a fine line with the temps.

Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning.

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Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning.

I think the 4" will be few. But generally, I think you're right. I'm thinking up to an 1" around I-84, increasing to widespread 3" right along the Mass Pike, dropping back to an inch or so to Rt 2.

My guess at this point in time.

33.6/25

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I'm thinking messenger has to re-work his appetite by noon Friday. Meanwhile, I can only see 24 hour increments but euro ens look predictably further east with the second system. That looks like a snow to rain deal for the cp on the op. Euro op also has intermittent light snow in between systems. Gonna be an enjoyable few days starting Friday.

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I'm thinking messenger has to re-work his appetite by noon Friday. Meanwhile, I can only see 24 hour increments but euro ens look predictably further east with the second system. That looks like a snow to rain deal for the cp on the op. Euro op also has intermittent light snow in between systems. Gonna be an enjoyable few days starting Friday.

What do the Euro ens spit out for qpf for Friday's snow event?

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Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning.

This year 1-4" is probably an Advisory Level snowfall, lol... its like living in northern Georgia where 1-2" is a very treasured thing.

I couldn't believe how much snow 2-4" looked the other day... good luck down there.

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This year 1-4" is probably an Advisory Level snowfall, lol... its like living in northern Georgia where 1-2" is a very treasured thing.

I couldn't believe how much snow 2-4" looked the other day... good luck down there.

LOL>.yeah this yr 1-4 is a major winter storm. Should be a nice wintry day Fri around here
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LOL>.yeah this yr 1-4 is a major winter storm. Should be a nice wintry day Fri around here

As long as it doesn't amplify any further... GGEM has the H85 freezing line at the Mass Pike in the panel before this, it does drop south a couple miles here but most of the precip is done when it becomes cold enough to snow for most of CT. Take a blend of GGEM, GFS, and ECM and it looks good for your hill top spot.

This would be an ORH jackpot or maybe even further up near RT 2 on Friday.

f84.gif

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As long as it doesn't amplify any further... GGEM has the H85 freezing line at the Mass Pike in the panel before this, it does drop south a couple miles here but most of the precip is done when it becomes cold enough to snow for most of CT. Take a blend of GGEM, GFS, and ECM and it looks good for your hill top spot.

This would be an ORH jackpot or maybe even further up near RT 2 on Friday.

f84.gif

With a very liberal use of the word "jackpot". :)

32.9/24

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The Euro actually has it snowing most of the day on Christmas Eve too...maybe enough to pick up another inch...esp in eastern areas.

Congrats!! While you tack on, we'll hope that we won't have any melting as temps go above freezing.

The GGEM has like a half inch of QPF along the Pike region... that would be a pretty decent snowfall between I-90 and RT 2.

Good to know. Maybe a 3" stripe might encompass the Pit.

32.2/24

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