moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 06z GFS just showed the GFS bias of losing a storm at 4-5 days out. I'll take the Euro, thx. Of course, sometimes it loses a storm because it's actually gone. But no need to fret over that until the 12z runs and the EC. With respect to Thursday night/Friday, I think this is my most legitimate doubt to date on my perseveration on qpf. The Canadian high is going to win out here. The "haves" with qpf will lack temps (for a good portion of the event), while those who can manage the temps will suffer from qpf issues. The winner for a couple inches IMHO will be the interior areas right along I-90 and north of the MA/CT line. Dries out to the north of there with a progressivley lighter coating, lots of wet south. 34.0/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GEFS are def a bit juicier for the 12/23 system. Hopefully this trends into a nice little 2-4 type event, but we'll def be riding a fine line with the temps. Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning. I think the 4" will be few. But generally, I think you're right. I'm thinking up to an 1" around I-84, increasing to widespread 3" right along the Mass Pike, dropping back to an inch or so to Rt 2. My guess at this point in time. 33.6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm thinking messenger has to re-work his appetite by noon Friday. Meanwhile, I can only see 24 hour increments but euro ens look predictably further east with the second system. That looks like a snow to rain deal for the cp on the op. Euro op also has intermittent light snow in between systems. Gonna be an enjoyable few days starting Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is a nice 4-8 inch snowfall for Christmas day. Snow on snow events from Friday into the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm thinking messenger has to re-work his appetite by noon Friday. Meanwhile, I can only see 24 hour increments but euro ens look predictably further east with the second system. That looks like a snow to rain deal for the cp on the op. Euro op also has intermittent light snow in between systems. Gonna be an enjoyable few days starting Friday. What do the Euro ens spit out for qpf for Friday's snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah Thursday nite/Friday is going to surprise some of the debbies . I like a nice strip of 1-4 inch type snows over most of SNE..That high bleeds down some cold air with the squeeze play between that high and the Bermuda high providing some nice overrunning. This year 1-4" is probably an Advisory Level snowfall, lol... its like living in northern Georgia where 1-2" is a very treasured thing. I couldn't believe how much snow 2-4" looked the other day... good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 06z GFS just showed the GFS bias of losing a storm at 4-5 days out. I'll take the Euro, thx. That's honestly better than it raining... just miss completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This year 1-4" is probably an Advisory Level snowfall, lol... its like living in northern Georgia where 1-2" is a very treasured thing. I couldn't believe how much snow 2-4" looked the other day... good luck down there. LOL>.yeah this yr 1-4 is a major winter storm. Should be a nice wintry day Fri around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 LOL>.yeah this yr 1-4 is a major winter storm. Should be a nice wintry day Fri around here As long as it doesn't amplify any further... GGEM has the H85 freezing line at the Mass Pike in the panel before this, it does drop south a couple miles here but most of the precip is done when it becomes cold enough to snow for most of CT. Take a blend of GGEM, GFS, and ECM and it looks good for your hill top spot. This would be an ORH jackpot or maybe even further up near RT 2 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 As long as it doesn't amplify any further... GGEM has the H85 freezing line at the Mass Pike in the panel before this, it does drop south a couple miles here but most of the precip is done when it becomes cold enough to snow for most of CT. Take a blend of GGEM, GFS, and ECM and it looks good for your hill top spot. This would be an ORH jackpot or maybe even further up near RT 2 on Friday. With a very liberal use of the word "jackpot". 32.9/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What do the Euro ens spit out for qpf for Friday's snow event? I just looked at allen's site and don't have access to that. I think that one will be the big deal of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nice OES/mood snows for many on the euro, after the general -SN on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Euro actually has it snowing most of the day on Christmas Eve too...maybe enough to pick up another inch...esp in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 With a very liberal use of the word "jackpot". 32.9/24 The GGEM has like a half inch of QPF along the Pike region... that would be a pretty decent snowfall between I-90 and RT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Euro actually has it snowing most of the day on Christmas Eve too...maybe enough to pick up another inch...esp in eastern areas. Any new thoughts for Thurs nite/Fri snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Any new thoughts for Thurs nite/Fri snow event? No not really...still think there will prob be a thin stripe of 1-3" of snow...likely N CT to maybe S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Euro actually has it snowing most of the day on Christmas Eve too...maybe enough to pick up another inch...esp in eastern areas. Congrats!! While you tack on, we'll hope that we won't have any melting as temps go above freezing. The GGEM has like a half inch of QPF along the Pike region... that would be a pretty decent snowfall between I-90 and RT 2. Good to know. Maybe a 3" stripe might encompass the Pit. 32.2/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Congrats!! While you tack on, we'll hope that we won't have any melting as temps go above freezing. Good to know. Maybe a 3" stripe might encompass the Pit. 32.2/24 You crack me up. You always mask asking about things by making a statement..but in reality it's a question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You crack me up. You always mask asking about things by making a statement..but in reality it's a question Not at all--I'm responding to Will's comment about the on-going sn- in eastern areas. Temps here are slated to be above freezing. So, there's no masked question in that. 31.9/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not at all--I'm responding to Will's comment about the on-going sn- in eastern areas. Temps here are slated to be above freezing. So, there's no masked question in that. 31.9/24 It'll be nice to have a couple inches of snow OTG as we head into X-mas eve..and then we watch the Xmas day snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The euro ensembles have a weak low going near the BM on Christmas. They must have a few members like the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey MPM don't fret...the euro had QPF over the Berks too heading into 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey MPM don't fret...the euro had QPF over the Berks too heading into 12/24. LOL--thanks, Scott. No fretting here. I'm being extra stoic in this pattern and being thankful for every weenie flake I can muster. 31.4/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is a nice 4-8 inch snowfall for Christmas day. Snow on snow events from Friday into the holiday what?? it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The Xmas Eve snow is actually from the northern stream vortmax ahead of the Xmas day storm...the GFS had it way further north which is why it didn't show any snow. Euro uses it to extent an inverted trough back into SNE to produce the light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The euro op still sucks for areas near and east of Kev to BOS on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 what?? it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting. They're not supposed to be taken literally, Phil. 31.3/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 friday PM/saturday is the kind of set-up that's fun, imo, lots of mood flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 what?? it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting. I think it would probably be snow at places like ORH, but yeah it's still putrid with little cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.