snowNH Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah I'm ignoring Xmas day at this point...regardless of how much snowNH wants to discuss it. I like the idea of periodic flurries and snow showers fri pm / overnight...maybe light fzdz too or something. At least it's something to follow over the next few days...gets us through the mid week mild spell. FWIW, probably nothing to most of you, I'm calling for a dud on XMAS and a coastal storm on the 26/27... also I don't see.the 12/23 anything more than Lollies of up to 4" at this point.. it actually looks like the storm is weakening rather than strengthening when it reaches NE WeatherMA... My post doesn't imply that anyone was calling for more than 4" (other than Kevin).. I was just stating my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 FWIW, probably nothing to most of you, I'm calling for a dud on XMAS and a coastal storm on the 26/27... also I don't see.the 12/23 anything more than Lollies of up to 4" at this point.. it actually looks like the storm is weakening rather than strengthening when it reaches NE huh? No one said anything about more then 4". Its a best case 2-4" event, worst case snow showers or just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is colder for Friday than previous runs...more in line with NAM/EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is colder for Friday than previous runs...more in line with NAM/EC. Looks like some light snow too behind the arctic front just to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well I was wrong in guessing the 00z run might be more amped up than 18z...pretty unimpressive wave on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is colder for Friday than previous runs...more in line with NAM/EC. Much colder, not much precip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 still looks good for some light snow on Friday to get us in the X-mas mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Still might be a chance for that wave to look a little more impressive given its origins, despite it kind of going through the grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Much colder, not much precip though 1-2" maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Still might be a chance for that wave to look a little more impressive given its origins, despite it kind of going through the grinder. That can often be the case with these when the originate from the gulf...a little more juice and convection can sometimes make them more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That can often be the case with these when the originate from the gulf...a little more juice and convection can sometimes make them more robust. Yeah that's what I'm thinking...but there is also only a little room for that to happen..if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Almost looks like a SWFE on the GFS. What a putrid look...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looks like EC ensembles almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Almost looks like a SWFE on the GFS. What a putrid look...lol. Another run delivering snow here Xmas morning. It should be a powderfreak jackpot when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That would be a tough Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Almost looks like a SWFE on the GFS. What a putrid look...lol. 12/16/07 was progged meager until close in. 12/19/07 was a driving rainstorm till the onset of precipitation. Somewhat similar but less robust cold this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 H7 is probably warm, raging SW winds at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I dont like the position of that 995 and deepening low just sw of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That would be an icing threat too perhaps in the interior south of the mid-level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That would be an icing threat too perhaps in the interior south of the mid-level warming. If that were to happen...send the thing out to sea. I'm fine with snow forcing me to stay home rather then traveling but ice on xmas would be a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A hair to warm for the CP on this run, starts as snow and then switches to rain, NH/VT/ME do well it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The beautiful phase job on the GFS between 108-120h certainly drives this pendulum swing and warm solution for xmas. This can be a whole different animal if they don't phase. Also, there is definitely potential around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The beautiful phase job on the GFS between 108-120h certainly drives this pendulum swing and warm solution for xmas. This can be a whole different animal if they don't phase. Also, there is definitely potential around New Years. Yea, gorgeous.....I'd hit it...... right over the head with a two-by-four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GEFS are def a bit juicier for the 12/23 system. Hopefully this trends into a nice little 2-4 type event, but we'll def be riding a fine line with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro looks warm for Friday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Xmas storm is now later on Xmas day, overnight into the early morning hours of Boxing Day now. It's a warning criteria event up this way, but ptype issues for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The beautiful phase job on the GFS between 108-120h certainly drives this pendulum swing and warm solution for xmas. This can be a whole different animal if they don't phase. Also, there is definitely potential around New Years. And there you have just that on the ECMWF. The southern s/w doesn't quite phase and instead slingshots northeastward. Beautiful CAD / high pressure too. If this "almost a phase" scenario pans out, I would probably speed the solution up 6-12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Xmas storm is now later on Xmas day, overnight into the early morning hours of Boxing Day now. It's a warning criteria event up this way, but ptype issues for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looks like the 00z UKMET is more like the 00z GFS (more phased and more interior). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 06z GFS just showed the GFS bias of losing a storm at 4-5 days out. I'll take the Euro, thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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