ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Since last night I've had a bit more interest in the 12/23 system over the Xmas threat. I think there may be a growing chance that we get a white Christmas that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Since last night I've had a bit more interest in the 12/23 system over the Xmas threat. I think there may be a growing chance that we get a white Christmas that way. Best shot is for some areas to pull off a few inches there and then get a whiff later...or an 18 hour delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM isn't too bad all things considered. Probably our best shot for now... hopefully we can get some periodic lighter snows like the euro would suggest into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 are these events "latitude helps" kind of events? Or more NW is better kind of events for the torched BL stuff at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The boundary layer is cooked for a little while, but models have a nice strong push of north winds which will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The boundary layer is cooked for a little while, but models have a nice strong push of north winds which will help. Verbatim it's cooked the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nam at 9z Friday looks like snow at ORH...but its like 37F at the surface...12z its like 33-34F at the surface. I mean, we are at the lowest sun angle of the year just about, so I would think we could pull off an inch or two if it came down steady for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Verbatim it's cooked the whole time. Only in extreme southern areas I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Verbatim it's cooked the whole time. Well it would be closer to the south coast. Further north and with a little elevation, it would probably flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hopefully we can pull a mini 12/20/08 during Friday and into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Verbatim it's cooked the whole time. Maybe in CT, but the 00z nam looks like it would get surface temps to fall to 32F after 12z...maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hopefully we can pull a mini 12/20/08 during Friday and into Saturday. This is why Kevin locks in 4" and 3 consecutive days of snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This is why Kevin locks in 4" and 3 consecutive days of snow. Lol. Notice I said "mini" LOL.The ultimate screw job would to be a nice fluff coating of white and then have it down the drain Christmas Day. That could happen in some areas..or a big part of the area, potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I would think that would evolve into a colder solution.Nam seems warm until the precip is winding down. Would be nice to get a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Notice I said "mini" LOL.The ultimate screw job would to be a nice fluff coating of white and then have it down the drain Christmas Day. That could happen in some areas..or a big part of the area, potentially. Or potentially could be additional snow on snow, that possibility is real too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 At 12z, NAM has the 2m temp at 34.3F at ORH...that would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Or potentially could be additional snow on snow, that possibility is real too. Of course, but for my area..I'm not feeling it. Hopefully in 3 days I'll be proved wrong. I just think there is too much that can go wrong, but it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Or potentially could be additional snow on snow, that possibility is real too. One threat at a time, please stay on topic. The xmas storm is too far away to talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 950mb is -1C and 900mb is a bit colder than -2C...that's really where you want to look to see if any of the hills will be snow. If 950mb is below freezing, it will almost always snow with any type of elevation as long as the precip is coming down steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 At 12z, NAM has the 2m temp at 34.3F at ORH...that would be snow. How much of your precip falls as snow?, clown maps should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Notice I said "mini" LOL.The ultimate screw job would to be a nice fluff coating of white and then have it down the drain Christmas Day. That could happen in some areas..or a big part of the area, potentially. Yeah I'm ignoring Xmas day at this point...regardless of how much snowNH wants to discuss it. I like the idea of periodic flurries and snow showers fri pm / overnight...maybe light fzdz too or something. At least it's something to follow over the next few days...gets us through the mid week mild spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 How much of your precip falls as snow?, clown maps should be interesting. 00z Nam only goes until 12z friday...you'll have to wait until 12z tomorrow to get some clown map action, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 How much of your precip falls as snow?, clown maps should be interesting. I would think most of it is snow except maybe the onset would start as light rain. Its not over at 12z...only 0.17" of qpf as fallen by that point. Maybe a bit more would fall after that. It doesn't look like a big event by any means, but 1-3" doesn't seem impossible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah I'm ignoring Xmas day at this point...regardless of how much snowNH wants to discuss it. I like the idea of periodic flurries and snow showers fri pm / overnight...maybe light fzdz too or something. At least it's something to follow over the next few days...gets us through the mid week mild spell. Agreed. I can always dream of waking up and having it look like "A Christmas Story" when Ralph was looking out the window at it snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z Nam only goes until 12z friday...you'll have to wait until 12z tomorrow to get some clown map action, sorry. Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Huh the nam goes out to 84 hours...the storm isn't over at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Agreed. I can always dream of waking up and having it look like "A Christmas Story" when Ralph was looking out the window at it snowing. Go lick the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM ftw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the nam goes out to 84 hours...the storm isn't over at that point. But the clown maps will still show something , by the way look at sim radar at 84, it's about over for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS ensembles at 18z were more amped up than the OP run it looked like so I wouldn't be shocked if the 00z OP run came in a bit more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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