CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That post is classic on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I've said it before and I'll say it again.....if I get 5" or more of snow on xmas, then I'll shave Hunchback Dave's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You two need to start a superthread,,, oh, wait So 3 putrid chances at snow between now and next Monday...3 needles to be threaded This pattern is oh so abysmal. You left out the mundo torcho for January. Most of the major mets and resident mets seem to agree it'll be like living in Borneo here in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You left out the mundo torcho for January. Most of the major mets and resident mets seem to agree it'll be like living in Borneo here in January. I choose to bury my head in the sand and ignore it. Easy enough to do with no snow and ground frozen to 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I choose to bury my head in the sand and ignore it. Easy enough to do with no snow and ground frozen to 0.5" In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk. I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk. I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see. Nice trolling post...but I agree, it's not going to snow at all this winter or be cold for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nice trolling post...but I agree, it's not going to snow at all this winter or be cold for that matter. That's ridiculous. And stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk. I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see. Sometimes I read here then go look for myself. Euro, check, Euro ENS, check. Looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This last GFS run reminds me of some of those 1700's annuls about 4 waves in 6 days "...that brought on an extended snow not seen in a fort-night strong left 4 to 5 foot on the level" There are really 4 distinct waves on there, each successively colder then the prior... If the entire medium were 10F colder that would be 2-4, 3-5, 6-12, ?12? For now I guess it'll have to be cold rain, cold rain, wet snow in the interior ending as snow everywhere on X-mass even, followed by a big ocean storm next week i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk. I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see. Did you get a chc to check out any spots just to your north? I know you mentioned you thought a spot might have pulled 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That's ridiculous. And stupid. Messenger said we should go directly to summer talk and that's not stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sometimes I read here then go look for myself. Euro, check, Euro ENS, check. Looks decent. I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there. I am just excited to get up to Gods Country next week, to see what its like to live in your shoes for a weekend! Breathing that 1600'ft alpine air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.? Actually many Mets were very concerned in Nov for Dec and the Euro weeklies were pointing warm as well as the CFS. Not all were cold hawking. I know of a fewwho went warm, not all here, but just look at the Dec forecast contest here. Lots were warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nice trolling post...but I agree, it's not going to snow at all this winter or be cold for that matter. Kev can go on and on and on saying the same thing and I make one joking comment and all of you get all your nylons bunched up. Did you get a chc to check out any spots just to your north? I know you mentioned you thought a spot might have pulled 3"+ No, got into making snowmen. I'm betting 2-3" just along the coast due north of me by the nuke plant. Messenger said we should go directly to summer talk and that's not stupid? It was a joke but no dumber than the endless unsupported winter talk when we've had 1/5 of the normal snowfall and 5.5+ departures AGAIN this month. This was supposed to be the change period and a lot of us were getting ripped 2-3 weeks ago for speaking honestly about what we felt would happen which is not much. I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there. I've had more snow than you in the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.? There were one or two that were totally against a fast start but they got droned out. Likewise those same people are saying the first 15 to 20 days of January are shot as well. I ran the numbers quickly but it looks like we're over 5+ in Boston again this month. That's astounding but not even that interesting because it was so incredibly warm in November this almost feels normal. We're going to have a 10+ day again this week. My expectation is we'll have scattered shots until we get into a more sustained cold and snowy pattern of unknown duration in later January. Until then it's warm cold warm cold and not terribly exciting save what might be something in the days surrounding Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Actually many Mets were very concerned in Nov for Dec and the Euro weeklies were pointing warm as well as the CFS. Not all were cold hawking. I know of a fewwho went warm, not all here, but just look at the Dec forecast contest here. Lots were warm. Yeah...most of the calls here were for warmth with the hope that it would flip later in December. With the EC ens/weeklies we pretty much only get an idea for the 2-3 week range and they've been showing a horrible pattern for quite awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Kev can go on and on and on saying the same thing and I make one joking comment and all of you get all your nylons bunched up. No, got into making snowmen. I'm betting 2-3" just along the coast due north of me by the nuke plant. It was a joke but no dumber than the endless unsupported winter talk when we've had 1/5 of the normal snowfall and 5.5+ departures AGAIN this month. This was supposed to be the change period and a lot of us were getting ripped 2-3 weeks ago for speaking honestly about what we felt would happen which is not much. I've had more snow than you in the last few weeks. You know what I hate. Seriously now, these two stupid separate threads, was trying to have a good discussion in either, jumping around is maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 anyone know when the last time we had 4 consecutive months deviate this far above the norm...it is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You know what I hate. Seriously now, these two stupid separate threads, was trying to have a good discussion in either, jumping around is maddening. Don't get yourself warned! It's stupid in quiter periods. This discussion is a perfect example. We're on the edge of "pattern" versus "event" and it could go into either one. Nobody else cares they've all given up. Tonight will be a defining run on this threat window IMO. We will see the shifts one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.? Welcome aboard. I can't really speak for elsewhere, but I can say this warmth was very well forecast by a handful of folks in this region. I don't know about "record" warmth but it was abundantly clear about 45 days ago that we were facing a serious uphill battle. I think toward the end of november we were hoping to see some positive shifts for the mid December period onward but it just hasn't materialized...and that's been a clear signal for quite some time as well. We can squeeze out brief stretches of near normal days and even a few cold days (see yesterday) in a warm pattern....and we can see snow...but a lot of us in this region really like to see both cold and snow and lots of it....and that's just not likely at this point. The "negativity" is partly humor...partly serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don't get yourself warned! It's stupid in quiter periods. This discussion is a perfect example. We're on the edge of "pattern" versus "event" and it could go into either one. Nobody else cares they've all given up. Tonight will be a defining run on this threat window IMO. We will see the shifts one way or the other. Warned for what? I just get confused trying to post in separate threads about the same topic. This is a thread for a storm . By the way I have lots of snow icons in my 4-7 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z nam would have it snowing for most of the region n of the ma/ct border by 12z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z NAM looks pretty interesting for Friday. It will be a race as we have a sprawling high pressure coming in from the plains and a wave riding up the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Warned for what? I just get confused trying to post in separate threads about the same topic. This is a thread for a storm . By the way I have lots of snow icons in my 4-7 day. This is a no complaint forum. Tow the line or we're gone. This thread may get broken into subthreads soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This has potentail to turn into a big freezing rain event for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z NAM looks pretty interesting for Friday. It will be a race as we have a sprawling high pressure coming in from the plains and a wave riding up the OH Valley. 2007-08 trying to put it's foot on this seasons neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nam still appears a bit milder than the euro...but close. If the BL isn't ruined, would be a snowy day for at least some of the area on that run...and perhaps all by days end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This has potentail to turn into a big freezing rain event for someone. Not a zr signal really. It's the bl that needs cooling and it either doesn't and it rains or it does and it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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