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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk.

I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see.

Nice trolling post...but I agree, it's not going to snow at all this winter or be cold for that matter.

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In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk.

I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see.

Sometimes I read here then go look for myself. Euro, check, Euro ENS, check. Looks decent.
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This last GFS run reminds me of some of those 1700's annuls about 4 waves in 6 days "...that brought on an extended snow not seen in a fort-night strong left 4 to 5 foot on the level"

There are really 4 distinct waves on there, each successively colder then the prior... If the entire medium were 10F colder that would be 2-4, 3-5, 6-12, ?12?

For now I guess it'll have to be cold rain, cold rain, wet snow in the interior ending as snow everywhere on X-mass even, followed by a big ocean storm next week i guess.

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In the end if we got some snow again on or around Xmas....that's all we can ask for and we should move right to summer talk.

I don't like the chances for Xmas, I think it goes west or gets surpressed but we shall see.

Did you get a chc to check out any spots just to your north? I know you mentioned you thought a spot might have pulled 3"+

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Sometimes I read here then go look for myself. Euro, check, Euro ENS, check. Looks decent.

I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there.

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I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there.

I am just excited to get up to Gods Country next week, to see what its like to live in your shoes for a weekend! Breathing that 1600'ft alpine air! :thumbsup:

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I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.?

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I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.?

Actually many Mets were very concerned in Nov for Dec and the Euro weeklies were pointing warm as well as the CFS. Not all were cold hawking. I know of a fewwho went warm, not all here, but just look at the Dec forecast contest here. Lots were warm.

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Nice trolling post...but I agree, it's not going to snow at all this winter or be cold for that matter.

Kev can go on and on and on saying the same thing and I make one joking comment and all of you get all your nylons bunched up.

Did you get a chc to check out any spots just to your north? I know you mentioned you thought a spot might have pulled 3"+

No, got into making snowmen. I'm betting 2-3" just along the coast due north of me by the nuke plant.

Messenger said we should go directly to summer talk and that's not stupid?

It was a joke but no dumber than the endless unsupported winter talk when we've had 1/5 of the normal snowfall and 5.5+ departures AGAIN this month. This was supposed to be the change period and a lot of us were getting ripped 2-3 weeks ago for speaking honestly about what we felt would happen which is not much.

I'm just busying myself with skiing and holiday stuff. Snow is in the forecast here and Christmas is in the air. Sucks that Messenger will spend the Winter on a Cape Cod beach in his speedo but I guess that's why he lives there.

I've had more snow than you in the last few weeks.

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I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.?

There were one or two that were totally against a fast start but they got droned out. Likewise those same people are saying the first 15 to 20 days of January are shot as well.

I ran the numbers quickly but it looks like we're over 5+ in Boston again this month. That's astounding but not even that interesting because it was so incredibly warm in November this almost feels normal. We're going to have a 10+ day again this week.

My expectation is we'll have scattered shots until we get into a more sustained cold and snowy pattern of unknown duration in later January. Until then it's warm cold warm cold and not terribly exciting save what might be something in the days surrounding Xmas.

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Actually many Mets were very concerned in Nov for Dec and the Euro weeklies were pointing warm as well as the CFS. Not all were cold hawking. I know of a fewwho went warm, not all here, but just look at the Dec forecast contest here. Lots were warm.

Yeah...most of the calls here were for warmth with the hope that it would flip later in December. With the EC ens/weeklies we pretty much only get an idea for the 2-3 week range and they've been showing a horrible pattern for quite awhile now.
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Kev can go on and on and on saying the same thing and I make one joking comment and all of you get all your nylons bunched up.

No, got into making snowmen. I'm betting 2-3" just along the coast due north of me by the nuke plant.

It was a joke but no dumber than the endless unsupported winter talk when we've had 1/5 of the normal snowfall and 5.5+ departures AGAIN this month. This was supposed to be the change period and a lot of us were getting ripped 2-3 weeks ago for speaking honestly about what we felt would happen which is not much.

I've had more snow than you in the last few weeks.

You know what I hate. Seriously now, these two stupid separate threads, was trying to have a good discussion in either, jumping around is maddening.

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You know what I hate. Seriously now, these two stupid separate threads, was trying to have a good discussion in either, jumping around is maddening.

Don't get yourself warned!

It's stupid in quiter periods. This discussion is a perfect example. We're on the edge of "pattern" versus "event" and it could go into either one. Nobody else cares they've all given up.

Tonight will be a defining run on this threat window IMO. We will see the shifts one way or the other.

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I know that it is all the rage to be as negative as possible in these posts as the medium range continues to looked torched, but how much stock can we really put into d10-d20 forecasts when not one model sniffed out the incredible, record breaking warmth we are experiencing now. Think back one month ago when everyone was gearing and getting excited for winter...how many of us amateurs or even professional mets were predicting not just above average....but a record breaking warm November...I will tell you how many....none. In fact, if anything...people were calling for a fast start to winter with cold and potential storminess for december and January. Look how those forecasts have turned out. So it may turn out to break more record for warmth in january , but I am not putting that much stock into these models or mets prognostications anymore...because if we cannot sniff out a warm pattern which deviated from the norm as extremely as the one we are currently in is...why should be buy lock stock and barrel into the next round of medium-long range forecasts.?

Welcome aboard.

I can't really speak for elsewhere, but I can say this warmth was very well forecast by a handful of folks in this region. I don't know about "record" warmth but it was abundantly clear about 45 days ago that we were facing a serious uphill battle.

I think toward the end of november we were hoping to see some positive shifts for the mid December period onward but it just hasn't materialized...and that's been a clear signal for quite some time as well.

We can squeeze out brief stretches of near normal days and even a few cold days (see yesterday) in a warm pattern....and we can see snow...but a lot of us in this region really like to see both cold and snow and lots of it....and that's just not likely at this point.

The "negativity" is partly humor...partly serious.

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Don't get yourself warned!

It's stupid in quiter periods. This discussion is a perfect example. We're on the edge of "pattern" versus "event" and it could go into either one. Nobody else cares they've all given up.

Tonight will be a defining run on this threat window IMO. We will see the shifts one way or the other.

Warned for what? I just get confused trying to post in separate threads about the same topic. This is a thread for a storm . By the way I have lots of snow icons in my 4-7 day.

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