CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Much sharper troff as it digs further SE for the storm on the 26th this run yeah a nice brush from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah--mine brought a smile to my face. But, I'll smile a whole lot more if we can actually have it play out where we get anything meaningful. Are you worried about qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Are you worried about qpf? But of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah a nice brush from it. Was it last year we had a similar setup (not pattern) But i thought there was a similar stretch that showed 3 lows and most of the models were all amplifying a different low until we locked on to one as we got closer in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The sfc is rock solid, but my 6" sensor is reading 35F. We've been dealing with mud later than normal on the job sites. It's really set up with the temps getting into the single digits. It reminds me of a few Winters when we've had the frost set in fairly deep due to lack of snowcover and then a nice blanket of snow gets laid down. Saw guys ice fishing today. I'll post a pic in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Was it last year we had a similar setup (not pattern) But i thought there was a similar stretch that showed 3 lows and most of the models were all amplifying a different low until we locked on to one as we got closer in? I feel like it happens at least a few times each winter. I'm a little suspect of that 3rd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 But of course! LOL, All is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 We've been dealing with mud later than normal on the job sites. It's really set up with the temps getting into the single digits. It reminds me of a few Winters when we've had the frost set in fairly deep due to lack of snowcover and then a nice blanket of snow gets laid down. Saw guys ice fishing today. I'll post a pic in the obs thread. Bet they didn't drive out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I feel like it happens at least a few times each winter. I'm a little suspect of that 3rd low. Being this far out at least there is something on the table, Might be something to watch going forward to see how these all get handled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 One at a time for now. The Christmas storm is close to a sugar plum fairy tale right now until we are 3 days closer. So many things could go wrong. Hopefully some of us can squeeze out some light snow Friday.Worry about the Christmas storm later as we are just too far out in an almost thread the needle setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Outside of the berks the this run of the gfs for sne during the wed-sun timeframe is about as bad as it gets. It's not "as bad as it gets" if someone in New England is getting snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not "as bad as it gets" if someone in New England is getting snow.. I guess you did not read that correctly, or read what I said regarding hoping everyone got snow. I said sne not New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol where are you? West farms with my girlfriend. Disastah -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I guess you did not read that correctly, or read what I said regarding hoping everyone got snow. I said sne not New England I dunno Joe...it kind of looked like a classic SWFE on the GFS (system 2) with a colder antecedent so that could bust as they often do at least around the areas from the Pike northward which includes plenty of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I guess you did not read that correctly, or read what I said regarding hoping everyone got snow. I said sne not New England No, I read it correctly, I simply meant that some snow somewhere in New England is better than no snow anywhere in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I dunno Joe...it kind of looked like a classic SWFE on the GFS (system 2) with a colder antecedent so that could bust as they often do at least around the areas from the Pike northward which includes plenty of SNE. I guess so Jerry, tired and busy and dying for some snow and I always root on anyone who has the chance to get snow ALWAYS, I am torched out and the pattern going into Jan is not promising, weeklies came in even uglier. I really was hoping for something over the next week and I guess its still possible, but its really tough to go against this existing pattern that has torched us for so so long. I am here because snow is my favorite thing in this world outside of family, this pattern has obviously gotten to me. Here is to hoping for a miracle this weekend! ( I think those of us on the coastal plain might need it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 One at a time for now. The Christmas storm is close to a sugar plum fairy tale right now until we are 3 days closer. So many things could go wrong. Hopefully some of us can squeeze out some light snow Friday.Worry about the Christmas storm later as we are just too far out in an almost thread the needle setup. I'm kind of surprised no one mentioned the 12/27 on the GFS (I know its like 8 days out...). To me, that looks like our biggest chance as we are dealing with a complete phase and not this stand alone vortmax type deal on X-MAS. I'm really curious to see what the ensembles show. That H5 setup the GFS showing is pretty ideal in this pattern. Scott why are you suspect of the third storm? I thought i saw that in one of your posts... GEFS are really suppressed with storms 2 and 3 and look really amped for storm 1. OT: PST model watching is awesome BTW... 18z runs at noon for the NAM, 00z at 6 for the NAM, 00z for the Euro at 10. Absolutely perfect! Oh and Monday Night Football starts at 530. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GFS took a step towards the Euro op. The setup still is kind of putrid. what cold air? gonna need some manufacturization IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gotta love the DGEX. 10-12" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Much sharper troff as it digs further SE for the storm on the 26th this run i think this one could be interesting along for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gotta love the DGEX. 10-12" lol Isn't the Dgex known for sniffing out storms in cruddy patterns....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Isn't the Dgex known for sniffing out storms in cruddy patterns....... I'm not sure it could even sniff out alcohol from weatherwiz's breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm not sure it could even sniff out alcohol from weatherwiz's breath. Lol....you are on a roll today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm not sure it could even sniff out alcohol from weatherwiz's breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm not sure it could even sniff out alcohol from weatherwiz's breath. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ensembles are pretty warm for SNE on Friday and have the low way offshore for Christmas FWIW. I wouldn't expect them to have Friday correct, but it could be something where it starts as a cold rain since it may trend a little more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm not sure it could even sniff out alcohol from weatherwiz's breath. By some of your post i don't know if its just wiz with alcohol on his breath....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm kind of surprised no one mentioned the 12/27 on the GFS (I know its like 8 days out...). To me, that looks like our biggest chance as we are dealing with a complete phase and not this stand alone vortmax type deal on X-MAS. I'm really curious to see what the ensembles show. That H5 setup the GFS showing is pretty ideal in this pattern. Scott why are you suspect of the third storm? I thought i saw that in one of your posts... GEFS are really suppressed with storms 2 and 3 and look really amped for storm 1. OT: PST model watching is awesome BTW... 18z runs at noon for the NAM, 00z at 6 for the NAM, 00z for the Euro at 10. Absolutely perfect! Oh and Monday Night Football starts at 530. I don't think storm 3 will do much of anything. I don't see much room for a third low since the PAC jet will come flying into the US right after Christmas and probably kick that low OTS. It's not impossible I suppose, but I don't by a hit from a third low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ensembles are pretty warm for SNE on Friday and have the low way offshore for Christmas FWIW. I wouldn't expect them to have Friday correct, but it could be something where it starts as a cold rain since it may trend a little more north. yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yay I'm glad they are offshore for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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