Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Everyone ready for a Debbie from Debbie? 3-2-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If I had to bet I'd say the Xmas storm is mainly rain for SNE. With no blocking and not a whole lot of cold wagons northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, I think it will be too warm for many on Friday at the start. So maybe a rain to snow event for most of us? Still can bang out a few inches. Glad I don't live in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 So maybe a rain to snow event for most of us? Still can bang out a few inches. Glad I don't live in the valley For Friday? It looks like mainly rain to me... even in the hills of CT. Just not a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, I think it will be too warm for many on Friday at the start. So you're saying there is a chance... Feel like we are in a seamstress shop... so many needles to thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 For Friday? It looks like mainly rain to me... even in the hills of CT. Just not a good pattern. Euro would be snow ..GGEM would too. I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro would be snow in the hills..GGEM would too. I like our chances Your family misses you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS is a nice hit up here Xmas morning...kinda warm south of the VT/NH-MA border to start. Still looks SWFE'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GFS took a step towards the Euro op. The setup still is kind of putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro would be snow ..GGEM would too. I like our chances Euro has about 0.2" of QPF for the hills... with boundary layer issues. Maybe some flakes in the air and a coating... but verbatim it isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS is a nice hit up here Xmas morning...kinda warm south of the VT/NH-MA border to start. Still looks SWFE'ish. Yeah nice for you guys. Just looks like an awfully warm setup in the boundary layer for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro would be snow ..GGEM would too. I like our chances Friday is not a few inches. It would probably flip to snow for you, but I can't see this being more than an inch...maybe 2 if someone is lucky near the Pike. Still a lot of time with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Outside of the berks the this run of the gfs for sne during the wed-sun timeframe is about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 So maybe a rain to snow event for most of us? Still can bang out a few inches. Glad I don't live in the valley Me too. Box's forecast looks ok here for the end of the week. Fairly high pops given it's a D4-6 forecast. Thursday Night: A chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yikes... 18z GFS is like wall-to-wall rain for most of SNE on Christmas outside of the Berkshires. Just such a crappy pattern... we'll really need to thread the needle to get anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If I had to bet I'd say the Xmas storm is mainly rain for SNE. With no blocking and not a whole lot of cold wagons northwest. I disagree a bit. There is a fairly robust polar high strengthening ...not weakening, while transiting N of the area. Typical corrective measure would apply in that scenario and those corrections don't point toward warmth. Buuuut, then there is seasonal persistence to disappoint Kevin at least excuse imaginable so we'd be remis if discounting that physical parameter - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Outside of the berks the this run of the gfs for sne during the wed-sun timeframe is about as bad as it gets. Violently agree. That HP cannot slip off the coast and produce ESE flow or we're cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Outside of the berks the this run of the gfs for sne during the wed-sun timeframe is about as bad as it gets. It's not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hey Ryan I'm standing right next to the studio...how bout a tour?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I disagree a bit. There is a fairly robust polar high strengthening ...not weakening, while transiting N of the area. Typical corrective measure would apply in that scenario and those corrections don't point toward warmth. Buuuut, then there is seasonal persistence to disappoint Kevin at least excuse imaginable so we'd be remis if discounting that physical parameter - hahaha Well that upstream high is really the only thing that makes this interesting. Unfortunately there's not much to get this thing in a favorable spot for us as the s/w rockets northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hey Ryan I'm standing right next to the studio...how bout a tour?! lol where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Violently agree. That HP cannot slip off the coast and produce ESE flow or we're cooked. An easterly flow off the warm Atlantic will just cook us. Not much wiggle room. We need a perfect track and this setup is just plain bad. Of course we could get lucky but it's definitely not that likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS is a nice hit up here Xmas morning...kinda warm south of the VT/NH-MA border to start. Still looks SWFE'ish. Yup--congratulations. Yeah nice for you guys. Just looks like an awfully warm setup in the boundary layer for most of SNE. THis is true, but still time to let this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not that bad. Not a single solitary snowflake here. I would call that bad.....like I said maybe some snows for the berks and distant interior of mass up in northern orh county but the coastal plain is cooked. Any marine taint at all and its over, temp has been rising here all afternoon and sits at the high at bdr of 48. Warmth is overperforming every single chance it gets. Should be a nice winter like xmas for the mountains, and sure things might change, but the Euro bias of holding energy back is worrisome, but we knew all along this part of ne would have a tough go as the pattern for the winter started to materialize. I hope things work out, and hope everyone gets snow but I just dont see it, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Me too. Box's forecast looks ok here for the end of the week. Fairly high pops given it's a D4-6 forecast. Thursday Night: A chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Yeah--mine brought a smile to my face. But, I'll smile a whole lot more if we can actually have it play out where we get anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Much sharper troff as it digs further SE for the storm on the 26th this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like a -RA to -SN scenario early Fri morning as the colder air works in. Probably favors the higher elevations north of the Pike? Brian, what are your soil temps like? We've frozen solid here and it seemed surprisingly deep when we dug something this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Actually I'm rather pleased with what I see. Outside of the berks the this run of the gfs for sne during the wed-sun timeframe is about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not a single solitary snowflake here. I would call that bad.....like I said maybe some snows for the berks and distant interior of mass up in northern orh county but the coastal plain is cooked. Any marine taint at all and its over, temp has been rising here all afternoon and sits at the high at bdr of 48. Warmth is overperforming every single chance it gets. Should be a nice winter like xmas for the mountains, and sure things might change, but the Euro bias of holding energy back is worrisome, but we knew all along this part of ne would have a tough go as the pattern for the winter started to materialize. I hope things work out, and hope everyone gets snow but I just dont see it, at all. It's not as bad for places outside the Berks. It's not great along the south coast, but the GFS can be warm and probably is a little too warm, unless this goes north for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Brian, what are your soil temps like? We've frozen solid here and it seemed surprisingly deep when we dug something this morning. The sfc is rock solid, but my 6" sensor is reading 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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