Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 12:43 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: i'm just saying what the model shows. Below On 12/20/2011 at 2:30 PM, CT Rain said: Euro looks awfully warm to me. I think a lot of it verbatim would be rain/ugly mix for a good chunk of SNE. The Berkshires do well. Coupled with a known bias that for whatever reason is being ignored this time (think snow or go home) I'll wait another 24 hours before biting. Persistence pattern for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:33 PM, messenger said: Below Coupled with a known bias that for whatever reason is being ignored this time (think snow or go home) I'll wait another 24 hours before biting. Persistence pattern for the win. This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 12:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: No not really...still think there will prob be a thin stripe of 1-3" of snow...likely N CT to maybe S NH. Yeah I'm really looking forward to this. It's not alot..but it'll be nice to have a wintry holiday weekend with 3 days of on and off snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:35 PM, CT Rain said: This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain. careful what you write. sometimes you end up getting unfriendly text messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Some normally nice folks have really turned nasty this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:37 PM, CT Blizz said: Yeah I'm really looking forward to this. It's not alot..but it'll be nice to have a wintry holiday weekend with 3 days of on and off snows I hope the euro is right for Friday and wrong for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:40 PM, CT Blizz said: Some normally nice folks have really turned nasty this week Posting about warm weather and rain doesn't make someone nasty. You know me... if there's a reason to get excited I will get excited. But to be fair 1" of slush doesn't whip me into an excited frenzy like some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A combo of the EC op and ensembles would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 powderfreak FTW on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:35 PM, CT Rain said: This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain. I think if anyone is expecting more than in inch or two combined, then they need to step away from the board. Of course someone might still end up with 3-4" total if everything breaks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:42 PM, CoastalWx said: I hope the euro is right for Friday and wrong for the weekend. vice versa.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: A combo of the EC op and ensembles would be nice. do you have a view of the individual members? given the low placement but h85 look, they must be all over the place i'd think...or maybe split into camps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 well NAM still has our snow for Fri, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:47 PM, Bostonseminole said: well NAM still has our snow for Fri, The preceding CAA looks a little better than 6z and it's going to need to be for you guys. The BL on the 6z was putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:35 PM, CT Rain said: This is just an awful pattern and for most in SNE I think there's little chance at decent (3"+) snows. I fully expect most of CT to see little from either storm. Maybe Berks/Litchfield Hills can squeeze something out but most model evidence is rain. Exactly. We do have a 1030ish high squeezing along with the low but it's not really pushing down as much as east. So it's going to take a perfect shot to make it snow to the south. If the euro is holding back energy even a little too much the timing will be even worse and the low will be through well ahead of the cold "push"....JMHO. We'll see in today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:44 PM, CT Rain said: powderfreak FTW on Christmas? Couldn't be....the storms was modeled to miss him at 6 days lead with the polar indecies @ +12 SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:48 PM, dendrite said: The preceding CAA looks a little better than 6z and it's going to need to be for you guys. The BL on the 6z was putrid. it is this go around as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:49 PM, messenger said: Exactly. We do have a 1030ish high squeezing along with the low but it's not really pushing down as much as east. So it's going to take a perfect shot to make it snow to the south. If the euro is holding back energy even a little too much the timing will be even worse and the low will be through well ahead of the cold "push"....JMHO. We'll see in today's runs. one of the reasons why the euro was kinda warm last night was because it was so slow...the high had pushed off the coast by the time the low was near SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ORH I think would definitely be snow on Friday morning regardless of how far the modeled 32F line is away to the north. -3c 850s in late December with a low passing to the south should be alright...areas further south would have some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:50 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: it is this go around as well. Ugly...even upper 30s in the higher terrain. The 00z NAM was much colder. Hopefully for the SNE interior its wrong.It doesn't even bring the sfc front through until after the system moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Rule out snow entirely. if you talk about snow anymore..you are wrong. Noone is going to see any snow Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:48 PM, dendrite said: The preceding CAA looks a little better than 6z and it's going to need to be for you guys. The BL on the 6z was putrid. On 12/20/2011 at 2:51 PM, OSUmetstud said: one of the reasons why the euro was kinda warm last night was because it was so slow...the high had pushed off the coast by the time the low was near SNE. I'm talking about the 23rd I think you're talking about the 25th? Not sure though. To be honest I haven't looked very closely because I think it's the run today at 12z that'll tell the tale. The 12z NAM is further SE than the 0z by quite a bit already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:53 PM, OSUmetstud said: ORH I think would definitely be snow on Friday morning regardless of how far the modeled 32F line is away to the north. -3c 850s in late December with a low passing to the south should be alright...areas further south would have some problems. yeah, the BL has a bit worried but at this point I will take 1" to whiten the scene a bit, ****, I will drive up west on xmas day with the family to see snow if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Say goodbye to the Christmas miracle......the NAO is positive and looks to go more positive......not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:50 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: it is this go around as well. Based on the 12z NAM, I'm still thinking there's a narrow strip right along the Pike that will get a couple inches. Drops off to the north as the high prevents much moisture to work in. Drops off below the CT/MA line due to prolonged rain/mix. Brookfield FTW? 33.3/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:54 PM, messenger said: I'm talking about the 23rd I think you're talking about the 25th? Not sure though. To be honest I haven't looked very closely because I think it's the run today at 12z that'll tell the tale. The 12z NAM is further SE than the 0z by quite a bit already. yeah i was talking about the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:46 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said: do you have a view of the individual members? given the low placement but h85 look, they must be all over the place i'd think...or maybe split into camps? The members looked rather cool. There were a few warm members, but the majority were off to the south it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm gonna go out on a limb right now and guess that my aggregate snowfall from this entire $hit show will be 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:54 PM, messenger said: I'm talking about the 23rd I think you're talking about the 25th? Not sure though. To be honest I haven't looked very closely because I think it's the run today at 12z that'll tell the tale. The 12z NAM is further SE than the 0z by quite a bit already. 23rd for me.The NAM has S winds during the entire event. You can see the convergence zone associated with the sfc front way up into S NH. Hopefully it's entirely blowing that aspect of the system. It is in the NAM's la-la-land range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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