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Boxing Day Miracle 2011 - Models Hinting at potential


Logan11

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro enhanced it over the Cape too on Saturday night. Could be decent there.

i think friday is probably liquid for a good chunk of us...at least S of the pike type locations...but then things get better friday evening into saturday evening. would be awesome to snag a bit of accumulation to go into xmas morning with.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:30 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

huh...i've got 925 0Cs back into C NH, then running SW to the Berks...like +2C contour into ORH/HFD/NYC

Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I see it too. I'm just guessing with a track like that and climo..probably an isothermal snow for ORH at like 32F if it happened. I could be wrong and agreed that it's warm for the typical areas that would snow given that track.

It's probably going to change anyways, and I'm still not all that hopeful for ern areas, but at leadt the ensembles are weak and further east.

yeah i could see that i suppose...thick column of borderline air.

regardless...i'm pinning my hopes on friday night and saturday. LOL.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:34 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

i think friday is probably liquid for a good chunk of us...at least S of the pike type locations...but then things get better friday evening into saturday evening. would be awesome to snag a bit of accumulation to go into xmas morning with.

Not here as Will said.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The OP Euro is weird in that the sfc flow is basically geostrophic...it rips ESE winds into SNE despite a BM track. Very unlikely to happen. I don't think I've ever had a rain event with -2C 850s unless it was November or earlier. You might get that on the coastline, but I'd think the interior would have winds more out of the 060 or 070 direction which is kind of typical with a retreating high.

I thought the s/w setup yesterday reminded me a bit of 12/23/07. The vortmax today doesn't look as robust.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

I could see Kevin even starting as pingers for a brief period Friday morning..maybe not just him either.

It'd be nice to see a bit more robust CAA on Thursday.

This could be a situation where your latitude up in BOS helps you out some vs some interior areas sw of you....just based on how the ll cold is draining south

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:20 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

what??

it's a driving rainstorm all the way to almost MRG. the low levels are roasting.

Haha forget it... the weenie mantra is that as long as you are north of the blue line at H85 (or anywhere near it for that matter) you can count your QPF as inches of snow, and maybe liberally assume 15:1 ratios too.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 12:58 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

It would be great to squeeze out some accumulation be it fri or sat going into the holiday...makes a great day that much better.

I agree...NAM and GFS look good, esp north of the MA/CT border. But even further south, it's not that bad. EURO looks good for a couple inches too. IMO, we might see this trend juicier just because that's been the trend. Hopefully not juicier and warmer.

For round two later Xmas Day...I'll take a compromise between EURO's rainstorm and the GFS's OTS solution.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 6:35 AM, HM said:

And there you have just that on the ECMWF. The southern s/w doesn't quite phase and instead slingshots northeastward. Beautiful CAD / high pressure too. If this "almost a phase" scenario pans out, I would probably speed the solution up 6-12 hrs.

Agreed...Nice snowstorm signalled on the Euro.

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  On 12/20/2011 at 2:29 AM, cycloneslurry said:

anyone know when the last time we had 4 consecutive months deviate this far above the norm...it is astounding.

2001 or 2002 come to mind. This current four-month torch falls a full degree behind Nov 2001-Feb 2002 which is pretty incredible given the anomaly and length.

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