One Year Later: Remembering the KU Boxing Day Blizzard HECS

[Chris L]

January 2011 was the best month for all of us...

What a month it was....

[NorthShoreWx]

Seriously. LI has had 4-5 better storms in the past 10 years, then Boxing day. Snow amounts wise. And 2 of them were in the past 3 years.

It was a good decade, but you don't even have to go back 10 years; 12/2010 is tied for 5th place over the past 3 years. Here are the top 14 heaviest snowfalls since 2000 IMBY:

1/26-27/11 - 14.5"

1/11-12/11 - 15.8"

12/26-27/10 - 12.0"

2/25-27/10 - 12.0"

2/10/10 - 14.5"

12/19-20/09 - 17.0"

3/1-2/09 - 11.5"

2/11-12/06 - 13.3"

1/22-23/05 - 14.4"

1/27-28/04 - 13.5"

12/5-6/03 - 15.5"

2/16-17/03 - 18.8"

3/5-7/01 - 12.2"

12/30/00 - 11.0"

That being said, it was still one of the coolest storms due to the wind and probably had more water content than some of the storms with similar amounts. No sleet here, but some mediocre ratios due to overalll snow quality and the wind were part of the problem with our accumulations on 12/26 (the bigger problem was that we just couldn't get into one of the better bands). This photo from the digout on 12/27 shows where part of the "problem" was uncovered:

PS, the lamest (relatively) storm on the list above was 2/11/06, but that wouldn't be a surprise to folks living on this part of the island.

[NorthShoreWx]

A lot of the LI measurements from the blizzard of 12/26-27/10 are suspect.

January 27 results...less than Boxing day.

Western Queens had more january 27th, but that is about it, Western Queens and Western Suffolk..

[psv88]

A lot of the LI measurements from the blizzard of 12/26-27/10 are suspect.

Well Upton recorded 18.8...so NWS disagrees.

[NorthShoreWx]

Well Upton recorded 18.8...so NWS disagrees.

Too much eggnogg at the office?

[psv88]

Too much eggnogg at the office?

I cant comment on your assertion that Long island totals were inflated, but i do think Upton's totals are a little high at times, its not like Upton is a sweet spot for snow or anything and they always seem to be 3-4 inches higher than surrounding stations.

[NorthShoreWx]

I cant comment on your assertion that Long island totals were inflated, but i do think Upton's totals are a little high at times, its not like Upton is a sweet spot for snow or anything and they always seem to be 3-4 inches higher than surrounding stations.

I hated to go down that road, because I really think their measurements are some of the best around, but that was one of the storms where I thought they had an off day measuring. Of course they are 17 miles east of here and I didn't go out to measure, so I can't be sure, but I am very skeptical. It is possible there was some minor banding to the east that was able to accomplish the 19" totals over a very small area. Looking at the radar loops from that day, I didn't see it.

While they are not in a sweet spot, I do think their center island location is helpful at times.

Here is my subjective take on the 12/26-27/10 storm for most of Long Island. It was a great storm...awesome, but just another heavy snowfall accumulation-wise. I have serious doubt about a lot of the heavier totals island-wide. No doubt, Nassau should have had more than Suffolk, but the > 20" totals there are unlikely.

I think the winds in '78 were higher, but the winds last December were close enough to give an idea of what it was like.

For NYC proper, this was probably the equal of 1978. For the NJ areas under the mega band, 2010 was for them what 1978 was for Long Island (albeit with less wind).

The bottom line is that this region covers a lot of geography.

[SBUWX23]

I hated to go down that road, because I really think their measurements are some of the best around, but that was one of the storms where I thought they had an off day measuring. Of course they are 17 miles east of here and I didn't go out to measure, so I can't be sure, but I am very skeptical. It is possible there was some minor banding to the east that was able to accomplish the 19" totals over a very small area. Looking at the radar loops from that day, I didn't see it.

While they are not in a sweet spot, I do think their center island location is helpful at times.

Here is my subjective take on the 12/26-27/10 storm for most of Long Island. It was a great storm...awesome, but just another heavy snowfall accumulation-wise. I have serious doubt about a lot of the heavier totals island-wide. No doubt, Nassau should have had more than Suffolk, but the 20" totals there are very unlikely.

I think the winds in '78 were higher, but the winds last December were close enough to give an idea of what it was like.

For NYC proper, this was probably the equal of 1978. For the NJ areas under the mega band, 2010 was for them what 1978 was for Long Island (albeit with less wind).

The bottom line is that this region covers a lot of geography.

Not sure why you got less, I had about 16 inches south of you in Hauppauge

[Guest Pamela]

A lot of the LI measurements from the blizzard of 12/26-27/10 are suspect.

...save for those out of Smithtown and Port Jeff....

[billgwx]

Gotta love those lightning strikes right over NYC.

[NorthShoreWx]

Not sure why you got less, I had about 16 inches south of you in Hauppauge

I don't know either. It wasn't for lack of trying. I have never taken as many measurements as I did in that storm. We definitely did not get 16" here. I am not far from the town golf course, so depending on where you are in Hapuuauge, we could be as much as 5 or 6 miles north of your location.

[psv88]

I hated to go down that road, because I really think their measurements are some of the best around, but that was one of the storms where I thought they had an off day measuring. Of course they are 17 miles east of here and I didn't go out to measure, so I can't be sure, but I am very skeptical. It is possible there was some minor banding to the east that was able to accomplish the 19" totals over a very small area. Looking at the radar loops from that day, I didn't see it.

While they are not in a sweet spot, I do think their center island location is helpful at times.

Here is my subjective take on the 12/26-27/10 storm for most of Long Island. It was a great storm...awesome, but just another heavy snowfall accumulation-wise. I have serious doubt about a lot of the heavier totals island-wide. No doubt, Nassau should have had more than Suffolk, but the > 20" totals there are unlikely.

I think the winds in '78 were higher, but the winds last December were close enough to give an idea of what it was like.

For NYC proper, this was probably the equal of 1978. For the NJ areas under the mega band, 2010 was for them what 1978 was for Long Island (albeit with less wind).

The bottom line is that this region covers a lot of geography.

Definitely not true. Im in Western/Central Nassau and measured 18-20, very hard obviously, but this was not in drifts either, the drifts were 40+ all over.

Take a look at the radar loop..nassau v suffolk was a huge difference...Western nassau was on the eastern edge of the mega band, suffolk got dryslotted on and off and had some p-type issues as well. I remember watching the eastern end of the band cut off mid-nassau county, and if you look at the totals, they really drop off east of farmingdale, which is spot on to the radar reflection that occurred.

I think the Fresh meadows observer is usually off, because i am 8-9 miles east of there and always have 3-4 inches more, so i think some of those eastern queens amounts are suspect.

[NorthShoreWx]

...save for those out of Smithtown and Port Jeff....

Impeccable!

Middlesex and New London Counties did even worse, so maybe their snowhole temporarily expanded over parts of LI for this one, but that doesn't help explain 19" at OKX.

[TheTrials]

can't wait until 12/28. This thread is like looking at pictures of an ex girlfriend.

[Guest Pamela]

Well Upton recorded 18.8...so NWS disagrees.

If there was one OKX event this decade whose # seems questionable...it might be this one....(and throw in the Mt Sinai one for good measure....I live about 300 feet from the Mt Sinai town line....)

000

NOUS41 KOKX 041732

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-050210-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

945 AM EST MON JAN 4 2010

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...NEW YORK COUNTY...

NYC/CENTRAL PARK 0.2 700 PM 1/3 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...QUEENS COUNTY...

NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.2 700 PM 1/3 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

NYC/JFK ARPT 0.1 700 PM 1/3 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

UPTON 9.7 1200 AM 1/4 NWS OFFICE

MOUNT SINAI 9.2 522 AM 1/4 PUBLIC

WESTHAMPTON 7.5 1100 PM 1/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

ORIENT 6.6 1050 PM 1/3 PUBLIC

MEDFORD 5.5 1000 PM 1/3 PUBLIC

PATCHOGUE 5.3 700 AM 1/4 NWS EMPLOYEE

ISLIP 4.6 700 PM 1/3 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

[ag3]

Definitely not true. Im in Western/Central Nassau and measured 18-20, very hard obviously, but this was not in drifts either, the drifts were 40+ all over.

Take a look at the radar loop..nassau v suffolk was a huge difference...Western nassau was on the eastern edge of the mega band, suffolk got dryslotted on and off and had some p-type issues as well. I remember watching the eastern end of the band cut off mid-nassau county, and if you look at the totals, they really drop off east of farmingdale, which is spot on to the radar reflection that occurred.

I think the Fresh meadows observer is usually off, because i am 8-9 miles east of there and always have 3-4 inches more, so i think some of those eastern queens amounts are suspect.

At work in NE Queens, I measured 18"-20" all over that area. But as I went south near Fresh Meadows, the snow was a little less, 15"-18".

Western Queens, where I live, in Astoria, there was 14"-15" of snow, matching LGA.

The "mega band" scraped eastern Queens and your area for a short time, before shifting west. The band set up from Staten Island on west. Staten Island did great from both Boxing Day and Jan. 26, where they had 20"+ from both storms.

Eastern NJ, in earthlight land, always seems to do well from big nor'easter blizzards. If we had weenie Internet and pns amounts in 1996, there would have been multiple 30"-35" amounts reported from NJ, through Queens and into all of LI.

[Guest Pamela]

I don't know either. It wasn't for lack of trying. I have never taken as many measurements as I did in that storm. We definitely did not get 16" here. I am not far from the town golf course, so depending on where you are in Hapuuauge, we could be as much as 5 or 6 miles north of your location.

The pattern I've noticed in Port Jeff (when there is more or less uniformity across the Island in terms of totals)...is that we generally record lower amounts than everyone else in the major storms....close to everyone else in the moderate events....and more than everyone else in the nickel and dime affairs...

[Guest Pamela]

At work in NE Queens, I measured 18"-20" all over that area. But as I went south near Fresh Meadows, the snow was a little less, 15"-18".

Western Queens, where I live, in Astoria, there was 14"-15" of snow, matching LGA.

The "mega band" scraped eastern Queens and your area for a short time, before shifting west. The band set up from Staten Island on west. Staten Island did great from both Boxing Day and Jan. 26, where they had 20"+ from both storms.

Eastern NJ, in earthlight land, always seems to do well from big nor'easter blizzards. If we had weenie Internet and pns amounts in 1996, there would have been multiple 30"-35" amounts reported from NJ, through Queens and into all of LI.

As a general rule...big events for NYC are almost always big events for NE Jersey...

[NorthShoreWx]

Definitely not true. Im in Western/Central Nassau and measured 18-20, very hard obviously, but this was not in drifts either, the drifts were 40+ all over.

Take a look at the radar loop..nassau v suffolk was a huge difference...Western nassau was on the eastern edge of the mega band, suffolk got dryslotted on and off and had some p-type issues as well. I remember watching the eastern end of the band cut off mid-nassau county, and if you look at the totals, they really drop off east of farmingdale, which is spot on to the radar reflection that occurred.

I think the Fresh meadows observer is usually off, because i am 8-9 miles east of there and always have 3-4 inches more, so i think some of those eastern queens amounts are suspect.

Well, the problem for me is that I cannot be sure because I didn't survey those areas. My instinct, which could be wrong, is that very few areas in Nassau actually touched 20". For Suffolk, I consider this a 12" - 15" type of storm from the county line to Riverhead. For the western half of NYC it was a 20" storm or more.

To really have accurately measured snowfall for a storm with that kind of wind, would probably require a gridded collection of measurements averaged from a large area, perhaps on a town-wide scale. Averaging 10 measurements from all over your front and back yard might not do the trick...the entire block could be effectively under a drift (or in the lee of one). So we are not going to resolve this scientifically; we just don't all have the same instincts about it.

[ag3]

Well, the problem for me is that I cannot be sure because I didn't survey those areas. My instinct, which could be wrong, is that very few areas in Nassau actually touched 20". For Suffolk, I consider this a 12" - 15" type of storm from the county line to Riverhead. For the western half of NYC it was a 20" storm, maybe a little more in some spots.

To really have accurately measured snowfall for a storm with that kind of wind, would probably require a gridded collection of measurements averaged from a large area, perhaps on a town-wide scale. Averaging 10 measurements from all over your front and back yard might not do the trick...the entire block could be effectively under a drift (or in the lee of one). So we are not going to resolve this scientifically; we just don't all have the same instincts about it.

What were qpf amounts around the area? Ratios were not great so, to get 20"+, I would assume precip totals had to be 1.75"-2.50"?

[psv88]

Well, the problem for me is that I cannot be sure because I didn't survey those areas. My instinct, which could be wrong, is that very few areas in Nassau actually touched 20". For Suffolk, I consider this a 12" - 15" type of storm from the county line to Riverhead. For the western half of NYC it was a 20" storm, maybe a little more in some spots.

To really have accurately measured snowfall for a storm with that kind of wind, would probably require a gridded collection of measurements averaged from a large area, perhaps on a town-wide scale. Averaging 10 measurements from all over your front and back yard might not do the trick...the entire block could be effectively under a drift (or in the lee of one). So we are not going to resolve this scientifically; we just don't all have the same instincts about it.

12-15? So you think 50% of the measurements in suffolk were off? Idk man, for suffolk, and i did survey the area a bit, id say western suffolk was more like 14-17, central was more 13-16, and eastern to riverhead 12-14...and then upton at 18.8 haha...

[Guest Pamela]

What were qpf amounts around the area? Ratios were not great so, to get 20"+, I would assume precip totals had to be 1.75"-2.50"?

LGA: 0.89

JFK: 0.99

CPK: 1.61

ISP: 1.00

BDR: 0.83

[NorthShoreWx]

The pattern I've noticed in Port Jeff (when there is more or less uniformity across the Island in terms of totals)...is that we generally record lower amounts than everyone else in the major storms....close to everyone else in the moderate events....and more than everyone else in the nickel and dime affairs...

Thats pretty interesting. I may take a look for that, but the pattern has seemed more random here except that I tend to be on the low side of some of the biggies. I attributed a lot of that my being not as excitable with a ruler in my hand as a lot of measurers (I'm not talking about the obvious ones where we should be lower such as 12/2010 and 2/2006). In some of these events I have surveyed towns that reported more and concluded that they overreported.

[ag3]

LGA: 0.89

JFK: 0.99

CPK: 1.61

Exactly my point. Queens area received around 1" of qpf only. To receive 20", like a lot reported, would require 20 to 1 ratios. Suspect.

The big snow drifts skewed a lot of snow amounts.

[psv88]

Exactly my point. Queens area received around 1" of qpf only. To receive 20", like a lot reported, would require 20 to 1 ratios. Suspect.

The big snow drifts skewed a lot of snow amounts.

Check out the radar loops of boxing day again...in the morning on the 27th a pretty big wrap around band came through, missed LGA and JFK, came right on through into nassau...the band formed on the CT coast and was pretty heavy for a while, def dropped 2-3 inches more...and if LGA for 14-15, theres ur extra.

[NorthShoreWx]

The biggest problem I have with liquid QPF estimates for snowstorms is that they are notoriously inaccurate and may not provide the sanity check that we are looking for in many cases. The wind did not deposit snowflakes uniformly in the heated guages on 12/26/2010.

[Guest Pamela]

they overreported.

...that never seems to be a problem at my job...

[CooL]

1 year ago today at this exact time i was getting ready to witness the best weather event i might ever see. Soo so awesome yet so so depressing right now that we are already 1 year removed from the storm..

[NorthShoreWx]

...that never seems to be a problem at my job...

[NorthShoreWx]

1 year ago today at this exact time i was getting ready to witness the best weather event i might ever see. Soo so awesome yet so so depressing right now that we are already 1 year removed from the storm..

As the old folks say, it beats the alternative.