One Year Later: Remembering the KU Boxing Day Blizzard HECS

[rygar]

Never been so disgusted with 7 inches of snow before. I was bitter, unfortunately. Not one of my finer moments.

[IsentropicLift]

I think tracking that storm for days and days in advance with all the model flipping and flopping was almost more interesting to me than the storm itself. Some of those model runs were just epic. The daily play by plays from Tombo on the ECMWF were great. I lost so much sleep that week staying up for the 00z runs.

[NorthShoreWx]

I still wonder to this day if I undermeasured the Boxing Day Storm...recording 11.0" in Port Jeff....the two towns that bookend me...East Setauket and Mt Sinai... came in with 15.0" and 14.2"....it was a tough storm to measure because of the wind....

I measured 12" here during the 12/26-27/10 blizzard. I suspect some (not necessarily all) of the higher reports from LI might have come from eager young snowfreaks with the subconscious "if NYC got 20 inches I must be undermeasuring" attitude. Combine that with the fact the heavy drifting made the snowfall measurements somewhat of a judgement call, and I wouldn't have the self-doubts that you are having. You did your best at the time and it may be better than the next guys effort.

I remember feeling the same at the time about some nearby towns being higher, so I remeasured and remeasured but I just couldn't justify changing my total. You've got to go with your best effort, otherwise it's all make-believe. I am quite comfortable with my 12" snowfall measurement here; it's still eating at me that we didn't get more in that particular storm, but it is what it is.

[NorthShoreWx]

Strangely enough, here in north central Suffolk...the Jan 11-12 storm was the best of the three...18.0" new...falling on top of 5.0" on the ground...the 23.0" depth is 2nd best to the amount after PD 2....as the storm was winding down that morning...I believe it was the only time in my life that I was slightly concerned that we might have had too much snow....crazy thought, no?

The way snow was coming dowm that overnight and early morning...I actually believe the southern CT totals near 30"....

The Jan 26-27 was a good one too...14.0" here...and count me among the awake...the idea of sleeping through one of these is anathema for the hardcore weather fan...

We had our deepest snow depth after the January 26-27 storm. We got 16" new on 1/11-12, but my snowdepth on the 12th was 19". We received 15" in the 1/26-27 storm when the snowdepth maxed out at 26".

Snowcover was the big story of the winter here. We had at least an inch on the ground from 12/27 - 2/28, double digits from 1/12 - 2/17, and 20" or more from 1/26 - 2/3.

And for whoever said that everyone else went to bed early on the night of 1/26 .... not everyone

[NorthShoreWx]

Exactly what I mean. That you woke up to it.

Lots of people missed the incredible amounts of snow that fell in such a short time.

I remember A-L-E-X and Noreaster27, got into a band that dropped 5" an hour and piled up 12" in less the 3 hours!

They both were up with me, Sundog, trials and earthlight at 3am.

I wasn't online at that time because I was outside

[MJO812]

NYC got 20" on Boxing Day. Brooklyn, Queens and all the boroughs all got 14"-20" as well.

Jan. 26-27, 2011 also dropped 14-20" over all of NYC.

Wrong. Brooklyn got 25 inches from the Boxing Day storm.

[SBUWX23]

This was one key shortwave, but another diving out of SW Canada played a vital role in the phasing.

Water vapor imagery of the vigorous shortwave heading to the CA coast at 1 PM on 12/22/2010:

[NorthShoreWx]

Here is how we got our 39.4" total for January in Smithtown:

1 0.0

2 0.0

3 0.0

4 0.0

5 0.0

6 T

7 2.4

8 0.1

9 0.2

10 0.0

11 1.8

12 14.0

13 0.0

14 0.0

15 T

16 0.0

17 T

18 1.2

19 0.0

20 T

21 4.0

22 0.0

23 0.0

24 0.0

25 1.1

26 6.0

27 8.5

28 0.1

29 0.0

30 0.0

31 0.0

[Chris L]

The H500 cutoff low gave the signal of something huge when it was going a negative tilt in AL/GA.... And the rapid amplified trough helped made it intense.

[jm1220]

We had our deepest snow depth after the January 26-27 storm. We got 16" new on 1/11-12, but my snowdepth on the 12th was 19". We received 15" in the 1/26-27 storm when the snowdepth maxed out at 26".

Snowcover was the big story of the winter here. We had at least an inch on the ground from 12/27 - 2/28, double digits from 1/12 - 2/17, and 20" or more from 1/26 - 2/3.

And for whoever said that everyone else went to bed early on the night of 1/26 .... not everyone

Amazing again how different the snow cover was between your location and mine, although we received roughly the same amount of snow for the winter. We had some nasty coastal fronts leak in a few times that just destroyed the snow cover due to the moist air accompanying them and the winds. I remember a couple of times (2/1 being one of them after we started out as freezing rain/sleet) where we got above 40 for hours and lost a good half a foot of snow in the process. We definitely pushed 18" on the ground at times but we could never sustain it for more than a few days. We were pretty much snowless outside of piles before late January's snow blasts came in.

As for the night of 1/26 into 1/27, it was one of the most amazing 6 hour winter weather periods I've ever seen. The snow was so ridiculously heavy from around 10pm-2am or so that it was impossible to see more than maybe 150-200 feet or so. It was just an unbelievable sight, and gave us a taste of what E NJ experienced on 12/26. And yeah, I stayed up right through it all. A winter weenie can't sleep through something as awe-striking as that.

[CooL]

it was around this time last year that some people including me secretly were giving up on 12/26 because the gfs just would not show anything, and then 00z tonight the euro lost it. And so did i.

then the gfs brought it back i think 6z and 12z xmas eve and i knew it was going to happen

[earthlight]

yeah tonight was the night where we thought we lost it.

[jrodd321]

Did anyone save any other model images from the GFS or NAM like 24 hours before the storm? Or have any links where I can find them?

[Jefflaw77]

Of all the storms i've tracked in the past oh i don't know- 15+ years - since the 1996 event (i was 18 then) - The days leading up to the boxing day event, with the constant model battles, the hype on this board, and the tragedy of seeing the models lose the storm (for the area), to then, I believe it was 12/24 - i think it was Friday afternoon, when the models began to bring it back and it appeared (at that point) this was definitely going to be an amazing storm, I can't remember a more memorable and fascinating event to track.. It was a ton of fun and surely missed in times like this when there is absolutely NOTHING to look forward to...

[Stormlover74]

I just remember the models coming back to the idea of a storm, one by one on Christmas eve. It was very surreal. Like I must be dreaming and am about to wake up. People were joking the day before like what if all the models had the storm again tomorrow. And sure enough that's exactly what happened.

Of all the storms i've tracked in the past oh i don't know- 15+ years - since the 1996 event (i was 18 then) - The days leading up to the boxing day event, with the constant model battles, the hype on this board, and the tragedy of seeing the models lose the storm (for the area), to then, I believe it was 12/24 - i think it was Friday afternoon, when the models began to bring it back and it appeared (at that point) this was definitely going to be an amazing storm, I can't remember a more memorable and fascinating event to track.. It was a ton of fun and surely missed in times like this when there is absolutely NOTHING to look forward to...

[MJO812]

Did anyone save any other model images from the GFS or NAM like 24 hours before the storm? Or have any links where I can find them?

GEFS 24 hours out

[TheTrials]

GEFS 24 hours out

too far east

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I can confirm I live probably 10-20 miles north of you and we haven't gotten more than 20" from any storm since the blizzard of 96. We've hit up to 20" a few times but most storms where many people have seen 20-30 " we've just seen 12-18" sometimes 20". Just bad luck as we haven't been under the deform band for a prolonged period of time in any storm. The closest was Dec. 26 2010 when just 5 to 10 miles west received up to 30" as well as FEB 2006. But I'm not complaining we will get our jackpot soon!

Yeah, I live in a snowhole as well.

For the 3 KU's during 2010-11

Dec 26: 15"

Jan 7-8: 14.5"

Jan 26-27: 14.5"

Last 20"+ storm was 06....even with the huge number of KU's in the recent years, my area is just a general snowhole during big storms

[MJO812]

At this time last year, the models took away the storm and all the weenies were jumping off cliffs and buildings. I almost cried when the models took the storm away.

[TheTrials]

At this time last year, the models took away the storm and all the weenies were jumping off cliffs and buildings. I almost cried when the models took the storm away.

really? you cried for a model? If this is the case, you need to see the bigger picture bro.

[MJO812]

really? you cried for a model? If this is the case, you need to see the bigger picture bro.

For all the models. I will never forget you screaming on the phone when the GFS showed a hit.

[CooL]

At this time last year, the models took away the storm and all the weenies were jumping off cliffs and buildings. I almost cried when the models took the storm away.

i just posted this exact same thing like an hr ago

[CooL]

the phase

[earthlight]

i just posted this exact same thing like an hr ago

this time last year, all the models took away the storm and I was crying.

[forkyfork]

as though anyone forgot what happened

[MJO812]

it was around this time last year that some people including me secretly were giving up on 12/26 because the gfs just would not show anything, and then 00z tonight the euro lost it. And so did i.

then the gfs brought it back i think 6z and 12z xmas eve and i knew it was going to happen

The GFS had the storm on the 0z run of 12/23. It wasn't strong though. The GFS lost it at 6z and then came back on the 12z run. The JMA,RSM,SREF,GFS and FIM showed the storm on the 12z model runs. The GGEM and Euro didn't yet. The 12z Euro ensembles had the storm near the benchmark though. It was the best Christmas Eve ever.

[Hailstorm]

HPC early morning discussion on 12/23/2010:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

910 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010

ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE

TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM

AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER

AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS

TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A

CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE

SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER

LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL

SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY

INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS

WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE

06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW

JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL

NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN

THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND

INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE

EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE

DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A

LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL

CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND

CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF

ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON

THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE.

12/23/2010 0z Euro drops the QPF for NYC from 1.75" to 1.00"

12/23/2010 6z and 12z GFS produces only 0.25" of QPF for NYC.

12/23/2010 12z GGEM, JMA and UKMET, KMA and FIMM are way out to sea, except for the CRAS and Euro ensembles.

12/23/2010 12z Euro shows the SLP 200 miles east of Norfolk, VA with all the precipitation offshore; Boston and Cape Cod only gets into some moderate QPF.

At this point, Colin gets banned; Snow88 gets 5-posted; jm1220, famartin, Snowlover123, NorEaster27 and KEITH.L.I all give up on the storm. Isotherm says that the last 2 weeks have been the most frustrating time of his life regarding model analysis. Earthlight says that he will be happy with at least 2 inches of snow.

Henry Margusity's 12/23/2010 video:

http://www.accuweath...ready-to-go.asp

Joe Bastardi tweets this after the 12z runs on 12/22/2010:

"a wave on the arctic boundary will be in northern Virginia Christmas morning, and this will have its own swath of snow that is most prominent in the Plains and Midwest tomorrow into tomorrow night with light snow probably reaching all the way to the East Coast on Christmas Day"

Mt. Holly's AFD that gives up on the storm:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY

CONTINUES TO DWINDLE...AS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER

STORM HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 1200 UTC ECMWF RUN HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON

IN ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL PHASING TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF AN

IMPACT WITH REGARD TO SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...A

CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING

FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO A BRUSH WITH

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM (LESS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE

1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF) OR THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM (A

BIT MORE LIKELY).

[SnoSki14]

I remember giving up on it too, but then one run of the gfs made everyone question it being a non event, the next runs were stronger and further west. The fact that the models trended in a positive way when we all thought it was over almost never happens. Usually as we get closer, the models take the storm away either by bringing it too far inland (rain, too warm) or push it further out to sea (flurries, no snow).

[Hailstorm]

I remember giving up on it too, but then one run of the gfs made everyone question it being a non event, the next runs were stronger and further west.

I remember you posting something similar to, "If I can't get snow on Christmas or the holidays, then please just give me 60*F+ temps and sunny skies on Christmas and New Year's."Don Sutherland's snippet from 12/23/2010:"I agree. In 9/10 moderate-strong La Niña cases since 1871, NYC saw less than 20" seasonal snowfall when it received less than 2.5" in December. FWIW, at the Newx-forecasts seasonal snowfall contest, my seasonal snowfall estimate for NYC was 13.9". My guess for Boston was 33.5"."The 18z GFS on 12/23/2010 sucked back some posters into the storm when it showed a blizzard for Cape Cod and Boston, while giving NYC 2-3" of snow.

[MJO812]

I remember giving up on it too, but then one run of the gfs made everyone question it being a non event, the next runs were stronger and further west. The fact that the models trended in a positive way when we all thought it was over almost never happens. Usually as we get closer, the models take the storm away either by bringing it too far inland (rain, too warm) or push it further out to sea (flurries, no snow).

There was no way that the storm would have cut inland with the massive block.