psv88 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The banding outside of the superband over earthlight was sporadic. That's why LGA reported 14" and so did I in Astoria, while 7 miles east in Bayside at work, I had 18"-19". Jan.26-27, 2011 was a widespread 14"-20" which is why I love that storm more. Not to mention the over a dozen lightning and thunder strikes I had. At one point it was non-stop while ripping 3" and hour. Further east in western nassau i had 19ish from boxing day and 18 from jan 27...spit the difference i guess. Jan 27 storm was awesome, waking up to that 18 inches was a real treat, the snow drifts from boxing day were awesome. The wind blew all the snow from across the lawn into the driveway, which sits below the lawn, to the south...so there was almost no difference between the driveway and lawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 too bad outside of me you and earthlight everyone went to be thinking the storm was over. All of I-95 was lit up, it looked like one big line of thunderstorms on radar. Yeah, look at my post. I added that most people were sleeping. Everyone thought it would be a 8" type storm and missed out one of the greatest snow shows ever, after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The banding outside of the superband over earthlight was sporadic. That's why LGA reported 14" and so did I in Astoria, while 7 miles east in Bayside at work, I had 18"-19". Jan.26-27, 2011 was a widespread 14"-20" which is why I love that storm more. Not to mention the over a dozen lightning and thunder strikes I had. At one point it was non-stop while ripping 3" and hour. Strangely enough, here in north central Suffolk...the Jan 11-12 storm was the best of the three...18.0" new...falling on top of 5.0" on the ground...the 23.0" depth is 2nd best to the amount after PD 2....as the storm was winding down that morning...I believe it was the only time in my life that I was slightly concerned that we might have had too much snow....crazy thought, no? The way snow was coming dowm that overnight and early morning...I actually believe the southern CT totals near 30".... The Jan 26-27 was a good one too...14.0" here...and count me among the awake...the idea of sleeping through one of these is anathema for the hardcore weather fan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Further east in western nassau i had 19ish from boxing day and 18 from jan 27...spit the difference i guess. Jan 27 storm was awesome, waking up to that 18 inches was a real treat, the snow drifts from boxing day were awesome. The wind blew all the snow from across the lawn into the driveway, which sits below the lawn, to the south...so there was almost no difference between the driveway and lawn... Exactly what I mean. That you woke up to it. Lots of people missed the incredible amounts of snow that fell in such a short time. I remember A-L-E-X and Noreaster27, got into a band that dropped 5" an hour and piled up 12" in less the 3 hours! They both were up with me, Sundog, trials and earthlight at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Strangely enough, here in north central Suffolk...the Jan 11-12 storm was the best of the three...18.0" new...falling on top of 5.0" on the ground...the 23.0" depth is 2nd best to the amount after PD 2....as the storm was winding down that morning...I believe it was the only time in my life that I was slightly concerned that we might have had too much snow....crazy thought, no? The way snow was coming dowm that overnight and early morning...I actually believe the southern CT totals near 30".... The Jan 26-27 was a good one too...14.5" here. I believe your area missed out on the 3"-5" snowfall the morning of Jan. 26? That's why you didn't receive 19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I believe your area missed out on the 3"-5" snowfall the morning of Jan. 26? That's why you didn't receive 19". <Checking out my notes> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I believe your area missed out on the 3"-5" snowfall the morning of Jan. 26? That's why you didn't receive 19". My records show 2.0" Jan 25 and 14.0" Jan 26-27... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 While most people slept, this is what happened at 12:30am, Jan. 27, 2011. A band of 3"-5" an hour that had non-stop lightning with 30-40mph winds. And right over the heart of all 5 boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 My records show 2.0" Jan 25 and 14.0" Jan 26-27... I think your area missed out on the 3"-5" of snow that fell on the morning of Jan. 26, 2011. It was unexpected and added to the 13"-15", we all got at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Exactly what I mean. That you woke up to it. Lots of people missed the incredible amounts of snow that fell in such a short time. I remember A-L-E-X and Noreaster27, got into a band that dropped 5" an hour and piled up 12" in less the 3 hours! They both were up with me, Sundog, trials and earthlight at 3am. I was awake for the superband rolling through, but i couldnt stay awake to see how long it took to pass by, i passed out around 4 am at the urging of my fiance...so i went to bed and there was about 10-11 inches, woke up to 18, so i was shocked, but i did see the 4 inch snowfall rates...but yes, i didnt see every flake... Heres a pic of what i meant with driveway and boxing day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I was awake for the superband rolling through, but i couldnt stay awake to see how long it took to pass by, i passed out around 4 am at the urging of my fiance...so i went to bed and there was about 10-11 inches, woke up to 18, so i was shocked, but i did see the 4 inch snowfall rates...but yes, i didnt see every flake... Heres a pic of what i meant with driveway and boxing day.. Nice. At least you experienced the super band. There was one more super band that rolled through NYC at around 3:00am and pushed east towards LI after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think your area missed out on the 3"-5" of snow that fell on the morning of Jan. 26, 2011. It was unexpected and added to the 13"-15", we all got at night. Yeah...the 2.0" on the 25th was not related...in fact, I was not even the one who took the measurement...was at work and when I came home I issued an appeal on the board for a figure for Port Jeff....someone eventually sent me the 2.0" total...and so that was the # I used... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 While most people slept, this is what happened at 12:30am, Jan. 27, 2011. A band of 3"-5" an hour that had non-stop lightning with 30-40mph winds. And right over the heart of all 5 boroughs. yea that band took its sweet time rolling east...i was licking my chops sitting on the eastern edge watching it pivot through...we didnt have lightning here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Strangely enough, here in north central Suffolk...the Jan 11-12 storm was the best of the three...18.0" new...falling on top of 5.0" on the ground...the 23.0" depth is 2nd best to the amount after PD 2....as the storm was winding down that morning...I believe it was the only time in my life that I was slightly concerned that we might have had too much snow....crazy thought, no? The way snow was coming dowm that overnight and early morning...I actually believe the southern CT totals near 30".... The Jan 26-27 was a good one too...14.0" here...and count me among the awake...the idea of sleeping through one of these is anathema for the hardcore weather fan... Jan 12th was my best storm in Dobbs Ferry at 14.5"...I measured 13" from Boxing Day but the drifting was so extremely with wind gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour that it was almost impossible to be sure, despite averaging 10 different measuring locations. My maximum snow depth was after the 1/27 storm when I had a general 25-26" in my lawn, with some sheltered areas in the woods near 400' elevation around 30" depth. Just an incredible winter for Westchester and only slightly behind the greats of 57-58, 60-61, and 95-96. It may be the best winter even for the combination of exciting events and deep, long-lasting snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 While most people slept, this is what happened at 12:30am, Jan. 27, 2011. A band of 3"-5" an hour that had non-stop lightning with 30-40mph winds. And right over the heart of all 5 boroughs. I get watery eyes just thinking about it. And to think the night before we thought we MAY get 6 inches total. We almost got that just from the surprise morning snow. It was coming down like crazy that morning. I had visibility go down to near zero for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Jan 12th was my best storm in Dobbs Ferry at 14.5"...I measured 13" from Boxing Day but the drifting was so extremely with wind gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour that it was almost impossible to be sure, despite averaging 10 different measuring locations. My maximum snow depth was after the 1/27 storm when I had a general 25-26" in my lawn, with some sheltered areas in the woods near 400' elevation around 30" depth. Just an incredible winter for Westchester and only slightly behind the greats of 57-58, 60-61, and 95-96. It may be the best winter even for the combination of exciting events and deep, long-lasting snowpack. 14.5 was youre best shwoing all winter? Can we say snowhole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think your area missed out on the 3"-5" of snow that fell on the morning of Jan. 26, 2011. It was unexpected and added to the 13"-15", we all got at night. Actually we didn't <searched old thread>...we had 3.3" in the morning...it let up considerably....there was a warm layer aloft and we had periods of sleet until around 10:00 PM...went over to snow...the superband went through (5 inches / one hour at Islip)..and finally tapered...tacking on 10.7" overnight for storm total of 14.0".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 14.5 was youre best shwoing all winter? Can we say snowhole? Yeah, I live in a snowhole as well. For the 3 KU's during 2010-11 Dec 26: 15" Jan 7-8: 14.5" Jan 26-27: 14.5" Last 20"+ storm was 06....even with the huge number of KU's in the recent years, my area is just a general snowhole during big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Actually we didn't <searched old thread>...we had 3.3" in the morning...it let up considerably....there was a warm layer aloft and we had periods of sleet until around 10:00 PM...went over to snow...the superband went through (5 inches / one hour at Islip)..and finally tapered...tacking on 10.7" overnight for storm total of 14.0".... The monthly total for Port Jeff last January was 41.7"...easily the best in the 17 years I've lived here...(exactly 17 as of December 24, 2011)..and probably the best the town has seen since February 1934...which likely rivaled it, snow wise <3 major storms that month> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 14.5 was youre best shwoing all winter? Can we say snowhole? I had 69.5" in Winter 10-11 and 68" in Winter 09-10 here in Dobbs Ferry. Being at 350' in the northern suburbs is definitely not a snowhole. Here are my totals from the major events in the past three winters, not a bad showing overall... 1/27/11: 14" 1/12/11: 14.5" 12/26/10: 13" 2/25/10: 26" 2/10/10: 13.5" 12/19/09: 8" 3/1/09: 10" 12/19/08: 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I had 69.5" in Winter 10-11 and 68" in Winter 09-10 here in Dobbs Ferry. Being at 350' in the northern suburbs is definitely not a snowhole. Here are my totals from the major events in the past three winters, not a bad showing overall... 1/27/11: 14" 1/12/11: 14.5" 12/26/10: 13" 2/25/10: 26" 2/10/10: 12.5" 12/19/09: 8" 3/1/09: 10" 12/19/08: 8" most people in the burbs are over 600 feet like snwyx and irishrob, your basically in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 most people in the burbs are over 600 feet like snwyx and irishrob, your basically in the valley. Those people are much further from NYC, however...I'm only like 8 miles from the Bronx border. Having your house at 350' with the nature preserve behind it at nearly 400' is good for how close in I am. Central Park is only at 144' and most of Southern Westchester is only 100-200'. The elevations don't get high until you get up towards Yorktown and over towards the CT border past HPN where there are some higher hills. Snywx is like 60 miles from the City, big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I had 69.5" in Winter 10-11 and 68" in Winter 09-10 here in Dobbs Ferry. Being at 350' in the northern suburbs is definitely not a snowhole. Here are my totals from the major events in the past three winters, not a bad showing overall... 1/27/11: 14" 1/12/11: 14.5" 12/26/10: 13" 2/25/10: 26" 2/10/10: 12.5" 12/19/09: 8" 3/1/09: 10" 12/19/08: 8" Since we are sharing / Port Jeff: 10/30/11: Trace 1/27/11: 14.0" 1/12/11: 18.0" 12/26/10: 11.0" 2/26/10: 10.9" 2/10/10: 14.5" 12/19/09: 18.0" 3/1/09: 12.3"...0.8" morning...11.5" evening / next day 12/19/08: 6.7"...5.1" Friday...1.6" Saturday (doesn't really belong on list) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Those people are much further from NYC, however...I'm only like 8 miles from the Bronx border. Having your house at 350' with the nature preserve behind it at nearly 400' is good for how close in I am. Central Park is only at 144' and most of Southern Westchester is only 100-200'. The elevations don't get high until you get up towards Yorktown and over towards the CT border past HPN where there are some higher hills. Snywx is like 60 miles from the City, big difference. Valley. Mt. Earthlight has twice your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Since we are sharing / Port Jeff: 10/30/11: Trace 1/27/11: 14.0" 1/12/11: 18.0" 12/26/10: 11.0" 2/26/10: 10.9" 2/10/10: 14.5" 12/19/09: 18.0" 3/1/09: 12.3"...0.8" morning...11.5" evening / next day 12/19/08: 6.7" (doesn't really belong on list) LI and SE CT (which usually gets screwed in every snowstorm) did incredibly well in the 12/19/09 storm...I remember skierinvermont calling me from Lyme CT and telling me how his house was getting bombed with 4-5"/hr snows. That was one of the only 20" snowfalls Groton (KGON) has ever seen. We were dryslotted here for a while with poor snow growth, although I do remember the December 19, 2009 event for its cold temperatures and wind. It was snowing heavily later that night with temperatures around 18F and a biting north wind, I recall my face being stung by the pellet-size flakes as I went for a walk around time to admire the storm. I drove home from college in VT for the 2/10/10 and 2/25/10 events, both were much bigger snowfalls in Dobbs Ferry but didn't have the airmass. The 2/25 Snowicane was incredibly damaging to trees with the heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Since we are sharing / Port Jeff: 10/30/11: Trace 1/27/11: 14.0" 1/12/11: 18.0" 12/26/10: 11.0" 2/26/10: 10.9" 2/10/10: 14.5" 12/19/09: 18.0" 3/1/09: 12.3"...0.8" morning...11.5" evening / next day 12/19/08: 6.7"...5.1" Friday...1.6" Saturday (doesn't really belong on list) Those days after the first storm of 08-09 in December with the constant light snows and very cold temps were a great feeling. I remember specifically walking somewhere a couple miles away instead of taking the car so I could be in the lightly falling snow. And people knock 08-09... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 LI and SE CT (which usually gets screwed in every snowstorm) Since you say "gets" rather than "get"...I think the verb "screwed" only applies to the fragment's second noun "SE CT"....which would make your statement rather legitimate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wow, this thread really lit up like a Christmas tree (pun sort of intended) during the last 12 hours; when yesterday, there were only 4 posts made. I remember during the 1/27/2011 storm, the long-range models were behind the short-term models in predicting the widespread 12-18"+ totals. It was kind of like a now-cast storm; we did not really have the premonition that NYC metro was going to see a KU until 12 hours in advance. The HRRR model nailed the amounts before the heavy snow bands even formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 North shore of LI from Oyster Bay to Port Jeff, average 3"-4" more then NYC. Maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 0z 12/22/2010 Euro run: HPC early morning discussions for 12/22/2010: WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY ITS 4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE. INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE 95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 859 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010 ...HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK/IMPACT OF POWERFUL EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SUN-MON... AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF AND SHARPENING W-CNTRL NOAM RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EARLY SAT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING OF AN EVOLVING ERN CONUS TROF THAT SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST AROUND DAY 5 MON. UPSTREAM FLOW SHOULD TREND FLATTER WITH TIME AS ERN PAC TROF ENERGY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE WEST BY SUN-MON AND CONTINUE EWD THEREAFTER... WHILE ADDITIONAL ERN PAC ENERGY WITH GENERALLY MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TOWARD/INTO THE WEST. THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE WRN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KICK OUT THE DEEP ERN TROF BY TUE-WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST OR GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 2-3 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWITCH FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A SUPPRESSED PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS ADJUSTMENT... THE UKMET TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED TO A VERY SUPPRESSED SOLN ACROSS THE GULF... ADDING SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE FCST. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THE GULF REGION STILL DEPENDS HEAVILY ON SHRTWV DETAILS OF NRN STREAM FLOW... WITH WHICH MODELS SOMETIMES HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY UNTIL WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF THE VALID TIME. OF PARTICULAR NOTE THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE ON THE SHARP/WWD ELONGATED SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH ENERGY OVER THE WRN GRTLKS/UPR MS VLY AS OF EARLY DAY 4 SUN. THIS ORIENTATION OF FLOW LIKELY PLAYS A PART IN THOSE GFS RUNS TRACKING THE DEEPENING WRN ATLC SFC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER MORE SUPPORT FOR A SHARPER AND MORE N-S ORIENTED TROF THAN RECENT GFS RUNS. WHILE THE 00Z AND 12Z/21 ECMWF EVOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY EXTREME WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID LVL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE EAST COAST... THEY APPEAR A LITTLE MORE COMPATIBLE WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN IDEAS VERSUS GFS RUNS. AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WWD OF ALL 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE ADMITTEDLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN RESOLUTION. WHILE THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT MAY WELL SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLN... IT IS TOO EARLY TO SUBSCRIBE FULLY TO ITS FCST. A SOLN IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD STILL APPEARS REASONABLE THOUGH. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A BLEND CONSISTING OF 30 PCT EACH 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z/21 ECMWF RUNS WITH THE REMAINING 40 PCT OCCUPIED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. HPC 12/22/2010 forecast surface maps: 12/22/2010 6z GFS: 12/22/2010 12z GFS: Water vapor imagery of the vigorous shortwave heading to the CA coast at 1 PM on 12/22/2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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